Mapping potential climate and development impacts of China’s Belt and Road Initiative: a participatory approach

This briefing by the Stockholm Environment Institute discusses the potential climate, environmental, and social impacts of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Southeast Asia. It highlights the risks of 'carbon lock-in' from coal and fossil fuel investments and the ecological threats posed by hydropower dams in the Mekong region. To mitigate these risks, the authors propose a participatory decision-making framework based on transparency, stakeholder inclusion, and adherence to international sustainable finance standards.

• The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) involves significant scale, with over 68 countries participating, representing 40% of global gross domestic product and 65% of the world's population.
• Southeast Asia is a critical region for BRI implementation; between 2013 and 2015, ASEAN member states received more than 60% of Chinese overseas direct investment directed toward BRI countries.
• Energy investments under the BRI in Southeast Asia risk creating 'carbon lock-in' by focusing on coal-fired power plants and fossil fuel pipelines. Southeast Asia accounts for approximately 23% of all Chinese-funded coal-fired power projects under the BRI, with primary construction in Vietnam and Indonesia.
• Hydropower development in the Mekong region, particularly in Laos and Cambodia where China has developed over 20 dams, poses serious threats to ecological health and economic vitality. Risks include methane emissions, altered sediment distribution, and dam failures, such as the July 2018 collapse of the Xepian-Xe Nam dam in Laos which killed at least 34 people.
• The authors propose a participatory approach to BRI decision-making to ensure investments are socially and environmentally appropriate. This framework relies on three pillars: transparency in acknowledging trade-offs, the participation of both expert and non-expert stakeholders to ensure social acceptance, and a commitment to international standards.

APA

Hong, C.-S., & Johnson, O. (2018). Mapping potential climate and development impacts of China’s Belt and Road Initiative: a participatory approach. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/china-belt-and-road-initiative-hong-johnson.pdf

Chicago

Hong, Chen-Sheng, and Oliver Johnson. Mapping potential climate and development impacts of China’s Belt and Road Initiative: a participatory approach. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2018. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/china-belt-and-road-initiative-hong-johnson.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Hong |first1=Chen-Sheng |last2=Johnson |first2=Oliver |title=Mapping potential climate and development impacts of China’s Belt and Road Initiative: a participatory approach |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=October 2018 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/china-belt-and-road-initiative-hong-johnson.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{hong2018mapping, author = {Hong, Chen-Sheng and Johnson, Oliver}, title = {{Mapping potential climate and development impacts of China’s Belt and Road Initiative: a participatory approach}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2018}, month = oct, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/china-belt-and-road-initiative-hong-johnson.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }