Mapping potential climate and development impacts of China’s Belt and Road Initiative: a participatory approach

The briefing examines the risks associated with China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Southeast Asia, particularly regarding carbon-intensive energy projects and hydropower dams. It argues that current investment patterns may lead to carbon lock-in and ecological damage. To mitigate these risks, the authors propose a decision-making framework based on transparency, stakeholder participation, and adherence to international sustainable finance standards.

• BRI energy investments in Southeast Asia are heavily concentrated in coal-fired power plants, hydropower dams, and transmission lines. Specifically, Southeast Asia represents approximately 23% of all Chinese-funded coal-fired power projects under the BRI, with significant construction occurring in Vietnam and Indonesia.
• The proliferation of coal-fired plants and oil and gas pipelines under the BRI risks creating a 'carbon lock-in,' forcing recipient countries into high-emissions energy pathways. The International Energy Agency suggests that following a fossil-fuel intensive path could more than double energy-related CO2 emissions in Southeast Asia by 2040.
• Hydropower development in the Mekong region, particularly in Laos and Cambodia where China has developed over 20 dams, poses severe ecological and safety risks. These include threats to fish populations, sediment distribution, and the risk of dam failure, as evidenced by the 2018 Xepian-Xe Nam dam collapse in Laos.
• BRI investments may create 'debt traps' for certain Southeast Asian nations, such as Laos and Cambodia, similar to the situation where Sri Lanka transferred a funded port to China.
• The authors argue that current BRI decision-making often lacks transparency and inclusivity, frequently benefiting local elites or corporate interests while marginalized groups bear the negative impacts. They propose a framework based on transparency, participation of both expert and non-expert stakeholders, and a commitment to international standards.
• To ensure sustainable infrastructure, the document recommends that BRI projects align with globally recognized sustainable finance frameworks, such as the Equator Principles, the Six Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI), and the UNEP FI Principles for Sustainable Insurance.

APA

Hong, C.-S., & Johnson, O. (2018). Mapping potential climate and development impacts of China’s Belt and Road Initiative: a participatory approach. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/china-belt-and-road-initiative-hong-johnson.pdf

Chicago

Hong, Chen-Sheng, and Oliver Johnson. Mapping potential climate and development impacts of China’s Belt and Road Initiative: a participatory approach. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2018. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/china-belt-and-road-initiative-hong-johnson.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Hong |first1=Chen-Sheng |last2=Johnson |first2=Oliver |title=Mapping potential climate and development impacts of China’s Belt and Road Initiative: a participatory approach |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=October 2018 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/china-belt-and-road-initiative-hong-johnson.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{hong2018mapping, author = {Hong, Chen-Sheng and Johnson, Oliver}, title = {{Mapping potential climate and development impacts of China’s Belt and Road Initiative: a participatory approach}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2018}, month = oct, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/china-belt-and-road-initiative-hong-johnson.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }