Closing the Fossil Fuel Production Gap

The document highlights a 'production gap' where current fossil fuel extraction trajectories far exceed carbon budgets for 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios. It advocates for a combination of supply-side measures—such as exploration moratoriums and subsidy removals—and demand-side policies to achieve cost-effective emission reductions and a just transition for affected workers.

• Preliminary research indicates a significant divergence between current fossil fuel production trajectories and Paris Agreement goals, with the world on track to produce 50% more fossil fuels by 2030 than a 2°C pathway allows and 120% more than a 1.5°C pathway allows.
• The production gap is most pronounced for coal initially, though oil and gas are also projected to exceed carbon budgets, leading to increased 'carbon lock-in' over time.
• Supply-side policies, such as moratoriums on exploration licenses, removal of industry subsidies, and divestment, can complement demand-side policies to reduce emissions more cost-effectively and avoid the risk of 'stranded assets' resulting from 'unburnable carbon'.
• Several countries have already adopted specific supply-side measures: New Zealand, France, Costa Rica, Belize, and Denmark have limited oil and gas exploration; Germany and Spain have committed to phasing out coal production; and India has implemented a tax on coal production.
• A 'just transition' approach is necessary to support workers and communities dependent on the fossil fuel industry; Germany, Spain, and New Zealand are cited as examples of countries developing such support programs.

APA

Lazarus, M., Verkuijl, C., & Yehle, E. (2019). Closing the Fossil Fuel Production Gap. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/closing-the-fossil-fuel-production-gap-brief.pdf

Chicago

Lazarus, Michael, Cleo Verkuijl, and Emily Yehle. Closing the Fossil Fuel Production Gap. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2019. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/closing-the-fossil-fuel-production-gap-brief.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Lazarus |first1=Michael |last2=Verkuijl |first2=Cleo |last3=Yehle |first3=Emily |title=Closing the Fossil Fuel Production Gap |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=2019 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/closing-the-fossil-fuel-production-gap-brief.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lazarus2019closing, author = {Lazarus, Michael and Verkuijl, Cleo and Yehle, Emily}, title = {{Closing the Fossil Fuel Production Gap}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2019}, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/closing-the-fossil-fuel-production-gap-brief.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }