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The briefing advocates for a "soft energy path" based on efficiency and design rather than increasing energy supply. It argues that current anxieties over AI electricity demand and critical mineral shortages can be addressed through demand flexibility, efficiency, and system optimization rather than building more power plants and mines.

The document details the global lithium landscape, highlighting the dominance of Australia, Chile, and China in mining and refining. It analyzes the shift in demand toward battery manufacturing, which now accounts for 87% of total lithium use, and examines the technical pathways for extraction, including brine-based, hard-rock, and emerging clay-based methods. The report also addresses geopolitical risks, such as export bans in Zimbabwe, and environmental concerns, specifically water scarcity in producing regions and the GHG emissions intensity of different processing routes.

The report analyzes the role of Indian state governments in localizing the electric vehicle (EV) and battery value chain. While 14 states offer financial support to attract investment, localization remains low for high-cost components like batteries and motors. The study argues that while downstream assembly is maturing, state policies are still nascent regarding upstream and midstream segments, such as critical mineral sourcing and cathode active material production. It recommends a coordinated approach between central and state governments to de-risk investments, improve infrastructure, and bridge skill gaps.

After a record year in 2024, the U.S. EV market experienced a 4% sales decline in 2025, driven by the expiration of federal tax credits and a volatile regulatory environment. While charging infrastructure continues to grow through private investment, nearly $20 billion in manufacturing projects have been canceled, particularly in the Midwest and South. Major automakers are shifting strategies toward hybrids and affordable models to mitigate losses, while workers face increased layoffs and production pauses. Despite these setbacks, long-term forecasts from BloombergNEF and the IEA suggest continued, albeit slower, EV adoption through 2030.

In Q4 2025, U.S. clean energy investments were characterized by significant uncertainty driven by a record 43-day government shutdown, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), and Department of Energy (DOE) funding cuts. While utility-scale solar and storage remained strong, with $18 billion in actual investments, other sectors like wind, hydrogen, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) faced substantial project cancellations. Nuclear energy showed signs of growth through large-scale partnerships and DOE loans, while the manufacturing sector saw $8.4 billion in EV supply chain cancellations, partly due to shifting federal incentives and corporate pivots toward gas and hybrid vehicles.

The report analyzes the role of Indian state governments in localizing the EV and battery supply chain, arguing that while central policies provide strategic direction, states control critical levers like land, power, and regulatory clearances. It finds that net localization for high-cost components like batteries and motors remains below 20%. The study categorizes 14 states into 'leading', 'aspirational', 'emerging', and 'differentiated' based on their policy strength and manufacturing competitiveness. Key recommendations include shifting toward indirect equity investment models to de-risk upstream battery production, establishing a design-linked incentive for R&D, and introducing phased zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates to create demand certainty.

The report examines Africa's history of 'premature deindustrialisation' and proposes a strategic shift toward manufacturing to drive structural transformation. It models a scenario where increased investment in R&D, infrastructure, and labour participation leads to significant GDP growth, the creation of millions of jobs, and a substantial reduction in extreme poverty by 2043.

The report examines the state of manufacturing in Africa, noting that the continent's share of global manufacturing output fell to less than 2% by 2023. It highlights a trend of premature deindustrialisation, where economies shift to services before establishing a robust industrial base. To counter this, the document identifies key drivers for growth, including the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), green industrialisation, and the adoption of digital manufacturing technologies like AI and 3D printing. It also details specific infrastructure projects, such as the Musompo SEZ in the DR Congo, aimed at moving the continent up the value chain from raw mineral export to high-value production.

The report examines the strategic partnership between Nigeria and China within the context of Nigeria's energy transition. It highlights a shift in Chinese engagement from 'debt-heavy, state-directed mega-projects' to 'smaller, more commercially oriented and locally embedded projects' under a 'BRI 2.0' approach. While Nigeria faces severe energy gaps—with peak generation at 5.7 GW against a 20 GW demand—it aims for universal electricity access by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2060. The report details specific collaborations in solar assembly, battery manufacturing, and green hydrogen, while advising Nigeria to 'stack' diverse capital sources from China, the EU, and the US to avoid geopolitical zero-sum traps. It concludes that Nigeria must strengthen institutional coordination to address asymmetries in bargaining power and ensure technology transfer.

The document highlights the growing role of energy storage in supporting the global transition to renewable energy, noting that combined wind and solar capacity has reached 3,222 GWac. It identifies China, the U.S., and the EU as leaders in total capacity, while emphasizing the trend of colocating storage with renewables in emerging markets like Chile, Türkiye, Australia, and Nigeria to manage curtailment and grid instability. Specifically, Chile is identified as the leader in Latin America, utilizing BESS to address transmission constraints and target 80% renewable electricity generation by 2030.

India's transport sector, the country's third-largest GHG emitter, is shifting toward electrification to meet climate commitments. While the transition supports goals like a 30% EV sales share by 2030 and creates jobs in battery manufacturing and charging infrastructure, it necessitates a coordinated strategy for reskilling the workforce to handle complex electric drivetrains and software integration.

The report analyzes how the shift from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to electric vehicles (EVs) will reshape India's automotive job market. It projects significant job creation in EV assembly, component manufacturing, service, and charging infrastructure, while highlighting the risk of obsolescence for ICE-specific roles. The document identifies critical skill gaps in battery engineering and power electronics and recommends a three-pronged strategy involving diverse financing, specialized courses, and supportive policies to ensure a just transition.

The Lobito Corridor, anchored by the Benguela Railway, aims to move beyond mineral exports to foster value addition in mining, battery production, and agro-processing. However, a stark duality exists between the modern logistics provided by the Lobito Atlantic Railway (LAR) consortium for large-scale exports and the dilapidated state of the Caminho de Ferro de Benguela (CFB) passenger rail, which hinders small and medium enterprises (SMEs). While some value-adding ventures like Pensana Plc and Flying Swans exist, they are heavily dependent on state facilitation, suggesting that private sector dynamism alone is insufficient to achieve industrial diversification.

Africa faces the challenge of decarbonizing industries while expanding industrial capacity, despite its low contribution to global emissions. The continent possesses significant assets for the clean energy transition, including cobalt reserves in the Democratic Republic of Congo, solar potential, and coastal deserts suitable for green hydrogen. To move beyond simple resource extraction, the document emphasizes the need for innovation ecosystems connecting startups, research hubs, and policymakers. It highlights existing technological momentum in Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, and Morocco, suggesting that a targeted policy mix can enable entrepreneurs to develop green technologies for both local and global markets.

The report argues that tax incentives for critical mineral value addition are secondary to primary non-tax enablers such as infrastructure, regulatory stability, and clear national strategies. It analyzes the value chains of copper, lithium, and nickel, noting that while production-based, cost-based, and profit-based tax incentives can attract investment, they risk revenue loss if projects are not commercially viable. The document highlights varied national approaches, such as Indonesia's nickel export bans and Australia's production tax credits, and recommends rigorous financial modelling to ensure that downstream incentives do not result in a net loss of government revenue compared to raw ore exports.

The report examines Nigeria's potential to leverage its critical mineral deposits—including lithium, cobalt, and copper—to drive economic diversification and meet climate goals. It identifies significant gaps in exploration funding, processing infrastructure, and regulatory frameworks, while highlighting the risk of over-dependence on foreign investors like China. The document recommends a comprehensive national strategy, increased investment in geological mapping, and the development of domestic value-addition capabilities to move beyond the export of raw materials.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) introduces a mix of incentives and challenges for US advanced energy manufacturing. While it preserves the 45X production credit and introduces 'full expensing' for capital investments, it also imposes stricter foreign entity of concern (FEOC) restrictions and accelerates the phase-out of certain clean energy tax credits, leading to reduced demand projections for solar, wind, and electric vehicles. The report suggests that manufacturers should pivot toward grid equipment, geothermal, nuclear, and upstream components where demand still exceeds domestic capacity.

Central Europe's solar generation grew at twice the EU average rate between 2019 and 2024, with cumulative output increasing from 5 TWh to 29 TWh. While Hungary, Poland, and Czechia have seen significant surges—with Hungary reaching nearly 25% solar share in 2024—Slovakia has lagged due to policy hurdles. Despite this growth, the region's battery deployment remains low at 0.1 GW as of August 2025, though Poland has a substantial 7.3 GW project pipeline. The report argues that the region must improve grid flexibility and storage to sustain solar momentum and leverage its position as a global battery manufacturing hub.

The EU is seeing growth in cleantech manufacturing and solar capacity, but the overall pace of transition remains insufficient. Significant financing gaps, fossil fuel dependencies, and misaligned agricultural policies continue to obstruct the path to climate neutrality.

Southwestern Pennsylvania is positioned to diversify its economy by establishing cleantech clusters, specifically in battery manufacturing, solar components, and green buildings, by utilizing its legacy in steel, glass, and robotics. While the region has existing strengths and some active companies, it requires better coordination through a dedicated cleantech cluster initiative and targeted workforce development in specialized engineering roles to compete with other regions and attract investment.