Search Climate Insights Directory

The report argues that meeting U.S. electricity demand growth through 2030 with a clean energy portfolio is more affordable and reliable than a fossil-fuel-heavy approach. Modeling shows that a clean energy scenario could save consumers $5.1 billion annually by 2030 and significantly reduce risks associated with volatile fuel prices and extreme weather. The analysis emphasizes the role of solar, wind, battery storage, and demand-side flexibility in reducing system costs and carbon emissions while maintaining grid resilience.

The report estimates that US farmers apply 30% to 50% more synthetic nitrogen fertilizer than crops can absorb, contributing to significant greenhouse gas emissions. It calculates total US fertilizer-related emissions at approximately 120 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent, with direct nitrous oxide emissions accounting for nearly 40% of this total. The document also analyzes the impact of USDA's Conservation Stewardship Program (CSP) and Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP), specifically Nutrient Management Practice 590, arguing that increased funding for these programs can reduce fertilizer dependency and generate economic benefits for farmers and the broader economy.

The report evaluates the impact of SUNCASA-implemented nature-based solutions (NbS) in Dire Dawa, Ethiopia, focusing on the Dechatu River Catchment. Using the SAVi methodology, it projects that interventions including afforestation, agroforestry, and urban tree planting will generate a discounted net benefit of ETB 101.6 million from 2025 to 2050, with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 1.36. The primary economic driver is the avoidance of flood-related infrastructure damage, valued at ETB 188.1 million. The assessment also highlights significant intangible benefits, such as avoided health costs from water pollution (ETB 65.8 million) and carbon sequestration (ETB 54.2 million). Sensitivity analyses indicate the project remains viable even with a 94% tree survival rate or under higher carbon pricing scenarios.

The report finds that Türkiye has a baseline hybrid solar potential of 8 GW at existing wind and hydroelectric sites, which could increase to 25.6 GW under more optimistic economic conditions. Dammed hydroelectric plants offer the highest potential due to their location in high-solar regions like the Mediterranean and Eastern Anatolia. Implementing this capacity could significantly increase the share of renewables in the electricity mix and mitigate the impact of drought-induced hydroelectric generation losses.

The report uses the SATIMGE modelling framework to compare a least-cost Reference Case against various Policy Scenarios and an 'Ideal Energy Scenario' for South Africa. The Ideal Energy Scenario targets net zero CO2 by 2050 with a cumulative GHG limit of 8 Gt CO2-eq, featuring a systemic shift to 80% public transport, expanded social provisioning for low-income households (including 6.5 million solar water heaters), and a domestic clean energy manufacturing sector with 85% local content. Results indicate that while total system investment costs increase, an affordable and socially inclusive transition is possible, with energy sector employment increasing due to localisation measures, despite a slight relative decline in economy-wide employment compared to the Reference Case.

Ember modelling indicates that the UK can reduce biomass power generation by 55% to just 2% of total electricity generation by 2030 without compromising grid stability. This low-biomass pathway involves reducing biomass capacity by 2 GW—retaining only the equivalent of one unit at Drax—and replacing the lost generation primarily through increased power imports (6.9 TWh) and a slight increase in gas use (2.9 TWh). The report highlights that biomass power is significantly more expensive than gas or wind, costing £138/MWh under a Contract for Difference, and poses energy security risks due to its total reliance on imports, as Drax consumed 5.8 million tonnes of non-UK wood biomass in 2023. Despite the reduction in biomass, the UK would remain a net exporter of electricity, totaling 60 TWh annually.

The research examines how CCUS deployment in the U.S. power sector affects air pollution and energy costs, finding that the outcomes depend on the underlying policy and that Black and low-income populations experience the most significant impacts.

The document details a modeling analysis of Illinois' energy storage requirements using the Python for Power System Analysis (PyPSA) framework. It outlines the grid's representation as two RTO subregions (ComEd and Zone 4), the data pipelines used for solar and wind production, and the specific technology assumptions and policy incentives—such as the Inflation Reduction Act's tax credits—integrated into the model. The analysis considers various demand growth scenarios and the impact of scheduled fossil fuel plant retirements.

The report analyzes the relationship between battery cost declines and the feasibility of phasing down coal in India. It identifies three stages of coal phase-down: slowing growth, plateauing, and absolute decline. Using a least-cost optimized (LCO) model, it finds that while solar can meet up to 83% of daytime demand by 2032, storage is the primary bottleneck for non-solar hours. To limit coal capacity additions to the National Electricity Plan (NEP) levels of 260 GW, BESS costs must decline by 15% annually. If costs fall by 7% annually, coal generation may plateau, but new capacity will still be needed. The report emphasizes that BESS costs must drop to approximately Rs 6 million/MWh (a >50% reduction from current levels) to potentially eliminate the need for new coal additions.

The document outlines the gTech-IESD modeling framework used to assess Canadian carbon pricing. It details ten policy scenarios ranging from 'No policy' to 'Announced policies with binding LETS systems', alongside sensitivity analyses for oil prices and technology costs. The report specifies macroeconomic inputs from the PBO and CER, and provides a comprehensive inventory of legislated and announced federal and provincial climate policies, including fuel charges, Large Emitter Trading Systems (LETS), and various investment tax credits.

The Madagascar Integrated Energy Access Planning (IEP) Electrification Report outlines a strategy to reach universal electricity access. It identifies a baseline scenario for 2030 and a conservative scenario for 2040. The plan relies on four primary modalities: grid densification, grid expansion, mini-grids (MV and LV), and standalone solar systems (SSS). SSS is the dominant modality, projected to serve 52% of the population by 2030. The report provides detailed geospatial modelling for project identification, cost assumptions for infrastructure, and financing requirements, estimating a total CAPEX of over $7 billion for the 2030 goal. It also assesses the potential for small-scale hydropower to support off-grid mini-grids, particularly on the eastern coast.

The report presents a preliminary techno-economic model for superhot rock energy, estimating that Nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) plants could achieve a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) between $20-35 per megawatt-hour (MWh). The model categorizes costs into well field development, power plant construction, and project financing, assuming a 250 MWe plant capacity and a 30-year lifetime. Key findings indicate that flow rate is the most significant driver of LCOE, while reductions in drilling costs alone have a relatively minor impact on overall capital expenditures. The analysis compares two technology regimes: one based on current drilling and casing technology and another assuming advanced 'energy drilling' that eliminates the need for casing. The report emphasizes that commercialization depends on breakthroughs in high-temperature materials, such as casing and cementing, and thermal reservoir creation.

The report presents a preliminary techno-economic model for superhot rock energy, estimating that NOAK plants could achieve a competitive LCOE of $20-35 per megawatt-hour (MWh). The model categorizes costs into well field development, power plant construction, and project financing, assuming the commercial availability of innovations in deep drilling and reservoir creation. Sensitivity analysis identifies mass flow rate as the most critical driver of economics, followed by plant capacity and the drilling learning curve. The analysis emphasizes that while drilling costs are a significant part of well field expenses, they have a relatively small impact on overall LCOE compared to the power output per well.

The report evaluates eight scenarios for Estonia's electricity sector to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. It identifies 'All Technologies' and 'Renewables and Storage (offshore wind)' as the most balanced options in terms of cost, risk, and feasibility. The analysis emphasizes the critical need for large-scale battery storage, grid reinforcement, and simplified planning processes. While nuclear energy could offer the lowest prices in 2050, it is deemed the highest risk due to a lack of domestic history and potential implementation delays. The report concludes that the final choice is a political decision, as most scenarios can meet carbon neutrality goals.

The study evaluates eight electricity generation pathways for Estonia, concluding that 'All technologies' and 'Renewable + Storage (offshore wind)' offer the best balance of benefits, costs, and feasibility. While all pathways can reach carbon neutrality by 2050, they require substantial investments averaging €8.0 billion. Key findings highlight the necessity of onshore wind, solar PV, and a massive build-out of battery storage (up to 9.3 GW by 2050) to manage intermittency. The report recommends streamlining planning processes, expanding the balancing market, and implementing risk-reduction instruments like contracts for difference to attract investment.

The document details the technical approach for modeling the macroeconomic effects of climate change on Canada's GDP, employment, and welfare. Using the gTech model, researchers integrated 13 categories of climate impacts—ranging from agricultural productivity and forestry reductions to infrastructure damages and healthcare spending—across 14 climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and three asset growth scenarios. The methodology distinguishes between impacts modeled as productivity changes (e.g., labour and agriculture) and those modeled as direct capital expenditures (e.g., road and building repairs), with the latter scaled based on historical asset appreciation relative to GDP. The report identifies weather-related disasters as the largest determinant of overall macroeconomic impact and notes limitations regarding the deterministic nature of disaster modeling and the exclusion of migration and trade restrictions.

The study assesses the environmental performance of incorporating bakery byproduct meal, chemically-processed grocery food waste feed, and Black Soldier Fly larvae (BSFL) meal into laying hen diets in the US. Results indicate that while all alternative diets can reduce land use and marine eutrophication by replacing agricultural ingredients like soybean meal, they often introduce trade-offs, particularly increasing global warming potential and water consumption. Bakery meal showed the most modest impacts, whereas BSFL meal caused the highest increases in greenhouse gas emissions. The report concludes that the environmental benefits of waste-to-feed systems are modest and highly dependent on energy use, suggesting that renewable energy is essential to ensure positive outcomes and that preventing food waste remains the top priority.

The report argues that diversifying oil palm plantations with crops like maize and cocoa can significantly increase smallholder incomes in Berau, East Kalimantan, compared to monocropping. It identifies that oil palm alone often fails to meet minimum living costs and exposes farmers to price volatility. The study recommends a strategy of diversification starting when oil palm reaches peak productivity (around year 10) to ensure positive cash flow and bankability. Key financial instruments proposed to support this transition include Kredit Usaha Rakyat (KUR), credit guarantee schemes, and maize crop insurance. The report emphasizes that diversification must occur on existing allocated land to avoid deforestation.

The report argues that independent palm oil smallholders in Berau face significant economic risks due to monocropping and low productivity, with returns often falling far below the regional minimum wage. Through financial modelling, the study finds that diversifying into maize and cocoa can substantially increase revenue—potentially up to 825% more than monocropping—while reducing sensitivity to market price volatility. It recommends that diversification begin during the peak productivity of palm oil trees (around year 10) to ensure bankability and positive cash flow. To facilitate this transition, the report suggests leveraging financial instruments such as the Kredit Usaha Rakyat (KUR) interest rate subsidy, credit guarantee schemes, and maize insurance, while strengthening local programs like PRUKADES and farmers' corporation plantation zones.

The study evaluates the relationship between three drought indicators and communal conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa (1989-2014) using multilevel logistic regression. It finds that while all three measures are positively associated with conflict, the strength of the relationship increases as the measure moves from meteorological (SPEI) to agricultural (NDVI) and finally to socio-economic (EM-DAT) impacts. Specifically, socio-economic droughts approximately double the odds of experiencing violent conflict. However, the author notes that the NDVI effect may be driven by spatial correlation—where conflicts and vegetation loss occur in the same land types—rather than a direct temporal causal link. The study concludes that preventing meteorological droughts from escalating into socio-economic disasters could potentially reduce communal conflict risks.