A Preliminary Techno-Economic Model of Superhot Rock Energy

The report presents a preliminary techno-economic model for superhot rock energy, estimating that NOAK plants could achieve a competitive LCOE of $20-35 per megawatt-hour (MWh). The model categorizes costs into well field development, power plant construction, and project financing, assuming the commercial availability of innovations in deep drilling and reservoir creation. Sensitivity analysis identifies mass flow rate as the most critical driver of economics, followed by plant capacity and the drilling learning curve. The analysis emphasizes that while drilling costs are a significant part of well field expenses, they have a relatively small impact on overall LCOE compared to the power output per well.

• Superhot rock energy could achieve competitive costs at scale, with a potential levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) as low as $20-35 per megawatt-hour (MWh), making it competitive in nearly every global electricity market.
• The cost model is based on 'Nth-of-a-kind' (NOAK) plants rather than first-of-a-kind (FOAK) plants, meaning it assumes that necessary technical innovations—such as advanced casing, cementing, and ultra-deep drilling methods—are already commercially available.
• Mass flow rate is the most influential variable driving the economics of superhot rock energy, followed by plant capacity and the learning curve for drilling costs.
• Drilling costs represent a relatively small percentage of overall plant costs, meaning that dramatic reductions in drilling costs alone do not significantly lower the total capital expenditure (CapEx) or LCOE.
• The LCOE of superhot rock energy is highly sensitive to the amount of power (MW) produced per production well, which is a function of flow rate and heat-to-electricity conversion efficiency.
• The model assumes a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 8%, based on a capital structure of 70% debt and 30% equity.

APA

Clean Air Task Force (2022). A Preliminary Techno-Economic Model of Superhot Rock Energy. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/30135200/SHRTechnoEconomic_Report.pdf

Chicago

Clean Air Task Force. A Preliminary Techno-Economic Model of Superhot Rock Energy. 2022. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/30135200/SHRTechnoEconomic_Report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Clean Air Task Force |title=A Preliminary Techno-Economic Model of Superhot Rock Energy |date=November 2022 |url=https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/30135200/SHRTechnoEconomic_Report.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cleanairtaskforce2022preliminary, author = {{Clean Air Task Force}}, title = {{A Preliminary Techno-Economic Model of Superhot Rock Energy}}, institution = {Clean Air Task Force}, year = {2022}, month = nov, url = {https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/30135200/SHRTechnoEconomic_Report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }