Üleminek kliimaneutraalsele elektritootmisele 8. aruanne: lõpparuanne

This final report, commissioned by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Structural Reform Support, provides a comprehensive analysis of scenarios for Estonia to achieve climate-neutral electricity production by 2050. The study evaluates eight scenarios—one baseline and seven climate-neutral—comparing them based on costs, risks, socio-economic impacts, and technical feasibility. The report recommends a strategy based on either 'All Technologies' or 'Renewables and Storage' as the most balanced paths forward, while cautioning against a heavy reliance on nuclear energy or carbon capture and utilization (CCU) due to high risks or poor economic outcomes.

• The report identifies 'All Technologies' and 'Renewables and Storage (offshore wind)' as the most balanced scenarios in terms of costs, benefits, risks, and feasibility. The 'Renewables and Storage' path is described as the most ambitious, requiring the largest investments in production and transmission infrastructure but offering positive socio-economic impacts and low CO2 emissions.
• Investment needs for the energy transition are significant, averaging 8 billion euros per scenario by 2050. Total costs vary from 3.966 billion euros for the Carbon Capture and Utilization (CCU) scenario to 14.293 billion euros for the Renewables and Storage scenario.
• Battery storage is identified as a critical challenge across all scenarios. Estonia is projected to need between 860–2,235 MW of battery capacity by 2030 and 4,570–9,300 MW by 2050, requiring investments between 526 million and 1.034 billion euros.
• The Nuclear Energy scenario is considered the riskiest by stakeholders due to a lack of domestic history and potential for significant delays and cost overruns. While it could potentially offer the lowest electricity prices by 2050 (if operating at a 65–70% load factor), it is not recommended as a primary strategy.
• The Carbon Capture and Utilization (CCU) scenario is deemed the least desirable. Although it requires the lowest new investment and allows continued use of domestic fossil fuels, it results in the worst socio-economic outcomes, highest electricity prices, and the highest dependence on electricity imports.
• Onshore wind and demand-side management (DSM) are expected to reach their full potential in almost all scenarios. Solar energy is also projected to see very high adoption, with capacities ranging from 725 MW to 2,390 MW by 2030 and up to 6,573 MW by 2050.
• Four priority actions are deemed essential for the success of any chosen scenario: simplifying the planning process, supporting investments in renewables or low-carbon technologies, developing the electricity system balancing market, and strengthening the transmission grid.
• The report suggests that the choice of the most suitable scenario is ultimately a political decision, as all analyzed paths can achieve the goal of carbon-neutral electricity production by 2050 and meet other strategic energy goals.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2022). Üleminek kliimaneutraalsele elektritootmisele 8. aruanne: lõpparuanne. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/uleminek-kliimaneutraalsele-elektritootmisele-lopparuanne.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Üleminek kliimaneutraalsele elektritootmisele 8. aruanne: lõpparuanne. 2022. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/uleminek-kliimaneutraalsele-elektritootmisele-lopparuanne.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Üleminek kliimaneutraalsele elektritootmisele 8. aruanne: lõpparuanne |date=13 October 2022 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/uleminek-kliimaneutraalsele-elektritootmisele-lopparuanne.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2022leminek, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Üleminek kliimaneutraalsele elektritootmisele 8. aruanne: lõpparuanne}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2022}, month = oct, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/uleminek-kliimaneutraalsele-elektritootmisele-lopparuanne.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }