Üleminek kliimaneutraalsele elektritootmisele 8. aruanne: lõpparuanne

The report evaluates eight scenarios for Estonia's electricity sector to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. It identifies 'All Technologies' and 'Renewables and Storage (offshore wind)' as the most balanced options in terms of cost, risk, and feasibility. The analysis emphasizes the critical need for large-scale battery storage, grid reinforcement, and simplified planning processes. While nuclear energy could offer the lowest prices in 2050, it is deemed the highest risk due to a lack of domestic history and potential implementation delays. The report concludes that the final choice is a political decision, as most scenarios can meet carbon neutrality goals.

• The 'All Technologies' and 'Renewables and Storage (offshore wind)' scenarios are identified as the best balance of costs, benefits, risks, and feasibility. The 'Renewables and Storage' scenario is the most ambitious, requiring the largest investments in production and transmission infrastructure but offering high security of supply and positive socio-economic impacts.
• Investment needs for the transition are significant, averaging 8 billion euros per scenario by 2050. Total costs range from 3.2 billion euros in the Carbon Capture and Utilization (CCU) scenario to 11.4 billion euros in the Renewables and Storage scenario.
• Battery storage is a critical requirement across all scenarios to balance the variability of wind and solar power. Estonia is projected to need between 860–2235 MW of battery capacity by 2030 and 4570–9300 MW by 2050, requiring investments between 526 million and 1.034 billion euros.
• Nuclear energy is considered the riskiest strategy by stakeholders due to a lack of domestic history and the likelihood that it would not be operational before 2035. Although it could result in the lowest electricity prices by 2050 (if operating at a 65-70% load factor), risks include public opposition and potential cost overruns.
• The Carbon Capture and Utilization (CCU) scenario is the least recommended because it is the worst for the economy and employment, and leaves Estonia most dependent on electricity imports, despite requiring the lowest new investments.
• Onshore wind and demand-side management (DSM) are expected to reach their full potential in almost all scenarios. Solar energy is also projected to see very high adoption, with capacities ranging from 725–2390 MW by 2030 and 725–6573 MW by 2050.
• Four priority actions are essential for the success of any chosen scenario: simplifying the planning process, supporting investments in renewables or low-carbon technologies, developing the electricity system balancing market, and strengthening the transmission grid.
• The 'Renewable Gas' scenario is considered viable but requires a reduction in the initially planned 1 GW of biogas capacity, as high raw material costs would make such a large volume inefficient.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2022). Üleminek kliimaneutraalsele elektritootmisele 8. aruanne: lõpparuanne. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/uleminek-kliimaneutraalsele-elektritootmisele-lopparuanne.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Üleminek kliimaneutraalsele elektritootmisele 8. aruanne: lõpparuanne. 2022. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/uleminek-kliimaneutraalsele-elektritootmisele-lopparuanne.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Üleminek kliimaneutraalsele elektritootmisele 8. aruanne: lõpparuanne |date=13 October 2022 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/uleminek-kliimaneutraalsele-elektritootmisele-lopparuanne.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2022leminek, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Üleminek kliimaneutraalsele elektritootmisele 8. aruanne: lõpparuanne}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2022}, month = oct, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/uleminek-kliimaneutraalsele-elektritootmisele-lopparuanne.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }