Search Climate Insights Directory

The research analyzes the transmission of compound climate hazards—such as simultaneous temperature and precipitation extremes—through global agricultural trade networks. Using climate model simulations and trade data for four major crops, the study finds that in extreme simulated years, nearly one-third of the world's countries see 20% or more of their caloric supply exposed to these hazards. The authors highlight that countries with low diversification in their number of suppliers and the regional climates of those suppliers are most vulnerable, with some importing up to 93% of calories exposed to compound hazards.

The PELP 2023-2027 report outlines three development scenarios for Chile: Slow Recovery, Carbon Neutrality, and Accelerated Transition. It projects a significant shift toward renewable energy, primarily wind and solar photovoltaic, and identifies critical transmission expansion needs. A key innovation is the introduction of Electric Generation Development Poles (PDGE) in the provinces of Antofagasta and Tocopilla to optimize renewable energy deployment. The report also analyzes the role of green hydrogen, energy storage, and the phased retirement of coal-fired power plants to meet 2050 carbon neutrality goals.

The research evaluates Mongolia's greenhouse gas emission trajectories up to 2050, comparing a baseline scenario with one incorporating 49 mitigation measures. While emissions could rise significantly without intervention, the proposed measures could reduce 2050 emissions by 40% relative to the baseline, though the authors note that technical feasibility and full decarbonization remain distant goals due to implementation barriers.

The study examines the effectiveness of terrestrial laser scanners (TLS) and hemispherical photographs (HPs) in predicting the structure of tropical dry forests (TDFs) across different successional stages. While these tools can identify structural differences between successional stages, the researchers found that these predictive differences disappear as liana abundance increases, suggesting that lianas create structural biases in the forest.

The document outlines a process for conducting climate scenario analysis on investment portfolios using a static approach. It employs NGFS scenarios to model the financial impact on sovereign bonds (Colombia and USA) and specific industrial sectors (oil, gas, energy, and cement) from 2025 to 2050. The analysis demonstrates that ambitious climate policies generally decrease the valuation of carbon-intensive sectors like oil and cement due to lower demand and carbon taxes, while benefiting the energy sector. It also shows that orderly transitions tend to lower the risk perception and yields of Colombian sovereign bonds compared to disorderly or delayed scenarios.

The study finds that the average WACC for African countries (15.6%) is significantly higher than the 10% uniform value often used in planning, with Eastern Africa facing the highest costs. This high cost of capital, driven by low economic development and high risk premiums, disproportionately affects capital-intensive clean energy projects. The authors argue that relying on uniform WACC values misguides policy and recommend localized data and risk-mitigation instruments to attract private investment.

The report uses a GTAP-E model to find that a USD 100/t carbon levy would generally reduce GDP and household incomes across Africa, increase global food prices, and reduce the supply of maritime services. It highlights that African importers already face disproportionately high freight rates, which a carbon tax would exacerbate. The authors recommend that the IMO implement a redistribution mechanism based on climate vulnerability and historical emissions, providing direct grants for out-of-sector projects like green hydrogen and resilient agriculture.

The study finds that WACC in Africa's power sector remains high compared to global benchmarks, driven primarily by a cost of equity that is on average double the cost of debt. While WACC is projected to decrease from 18% to 13% by 2070, significant regional disparities persist, with Eastern Africa facing the highest costs and Northern Africa the lowest. The authors argue that using uniform cost of capital assumptions leads to underestimation bias in energy costs and misguides policy, particularly for capital-intensive clean energy projects.

The report examines the economic landscape of the Louisiana River Parishes, highlighting a paradox where high industrial activity from petrochemical plants masks significant unemployment, worker outflow, and high household debt. It finds that while median incomes are higher than the state average, they fall below the regional living wage for families, and the population is experiencing a gradual decline. The workforce is characterized by a high concentration of low-skill 'Tier 3' jobs and a reliance on commuting outside the community for employment.

The report details significant economic distress in the Navajo Nation, characterized by low median household incomes, high unemployment, and a workforce that must largely seek employment outside the community. While average annual wages have increased, they remain below living wage standards for most industry clusters. The region faces demographic challenges, including a declining youth population and limited housing availability due to complex land-use and leasing requirements.

The research paper assesses three Basic Income Grant (BIG) scenarios for South Africa: Low, Medium, and High Ambition. Using the Dynamically Integrated Macro-Micro Simulation Model (DIMMSIM), the author argues that a BIG can be funded through a combination of a wealth tax, a Social Security Tax (SST), and increased VAT revenue without requiring changes to existing income tax or VAT rates. The findings suggest that such a programme would significantly reduce poverty and inequality while simultaneously boosting GDP growth and employment, contradicting predictions from neoclassical CGE and DSGE models that suggest such transfers lead to economic contraction.

The study finds limited alignment with the Paris Agreement, as financing to high-emitting 'brown' sectors generally increased in volume since 2016, while 'green' investments remained marginal in absolute terms.

The research examines how NATO's airstrike-only intervention during the Kosovo War affected Albanian civilian victimization. Using a novel dataset (Kosovo Airstrike Locator) and the Kosovo Memory Book, the author finds that while the overall introduction of airstrikes coincided with a dramatic increase in civilian deaths, recently struck municipalities actually saw a decrease in expected victimization. However, this direct effect was offset by indirect consequences: the shift in strike strategy to target military units intensified the violence following battles and KLA soldier deaths, and shifted the geography of victimization toward more populous areas and those with lower Albanian population percentages. The author concludes that airstrike-only interventions can intensify conflict and increase civilian vulnerability, suggesting they should not be the primary tool for protecting civilians without a credible ground-force threat.

The study finds that higher levels of women's political empowerment are positively associated with the success of nonviolent resistance campaigns and negatively associated with the success of violent campaigns. Using the NAVCO 2.1 dataset and the Women's Political Empowerment Index (WPEI), the author argues that gender equality shapes both the societal norms regarding the legitimacy of violence and the opportunity structures for recruitment. While the results for nonviolent campaigns are robust across various specifications, the findings for violent campaigns are more sensitive to how time dependency is handled. The author concludes that gender-related dynamics are critical structural elements in understanding the outcomes of collective action.

The study examines the relationship between political institutions, support coalition identity, and deforestation. Using satellite data and expert-coded regime data, the author finds that while democratization is generally associated with forest loss, this effect is moderated by the support base: democracies with rural supporters are associated with reforestation. Conversely, regimes relying on urban supporters are linked to higher-than-average forest loss globally and in the tropics, potentially reflecting the consumption demands of urbanizing populations.

The study identifies mining, logging, dam construction, and agriculture as the primary threats to biodiversity in the Chindwin River Basin. Using a GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Making approach and the InVEST model, the research found that 87% of Key Biodiversity Areas provide a high degree of ecosystem services, with the highest levels occurring in the forested northern region of the basin.

The study analyzes the impact of the 2019 Anti-ELAB movement on voter behavior in Hong Kong. Using logistic regression on survey and event data, the author finds that protests and police brutality mobilize individuals who identify as "Hongkongers" to vote for opposition parties, while having the opposite effect on those who identify as "Chinese". Nonviolent protests were found to be more effective in inducing defections from the regime among those with a local identity.

The study argues that disaggregating sectarian violence is essential to understanding its effects on institutional trust. Using survey data from the Arab Barometer and a sectarian events dataset, the author finds that beatings decrease trust in mediators like religious leaders and the parliament, while bombings unexpectedly increase trust in the army and legal system. Burnings primarily reduce trust in the courts. The findings suggest that the targeted Christian minority is affected differently than the general public, sometimes showing increased trust in the government and parliament following bombings.

The report details a System Scale Planning (SSP) framework applied to Nepal's hydropower sector, specifically the Karnali Basin. Using a Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm (MOEA) and integration with the SWITCH energy model, the methodology identifies 'pareto-optimal' portfolios of projects that balance installed capacity and cost against environmental and social metrics. Key findings demonstrate that strategic project selection can significantly reduce biodiversity and livelihood impacts for a given level of energy output, and that restricting development on mainstem rivers (Scenario K03) can achieve a favorable balance of low environmental impact and low system cost.

The study uses a spatially and temporally disaggregated research design to analyze protest events in Africa and Asia. It finds that mild government repression of nonviolent protests typically leads to violent escalation, whereas repression of violent protests tends to encourage a shift back to nonviolent means. Crucially, the research demonstrates that the level of organization acts as a moderator; organized protests are more effective at maintaining nonviolent discipline and resisting the escalatory effects of repression than disorganized ones.