Introducción a la evaluación de escenarios climáticos en portafolios de inversión

The document outlines a process for conducting climate scenario analysis on investment portfolios using a static approach. It employs NGFS scenarios to model the financial impact on sovereign bonds (Colombia and USA) and specific industrial sectors (oil, gas, energy, and cement) from 2025 to 2050. The analysis demonstrates that ambitious climate policies generally decrease the valuation of carbon-intensive sectors like oil and cement due to lower demand and carbon taxes, while benefiting the energy sector. It also shows that orderly transitions tend to lower the risk perception and yields of Colombian sovereign bonds compared to disorderly or delayed scenarios.

• The guide adopts a static analysis approach, which evaluates how external factors like carbon prices and demand changes affect financial performance without assuming internal strategic adjustments by the company or portfolio.
• In the oil sector, valuations are primarily driven by consumption and price dynamics; ambitious scenarios (Net Zero 2050 and Below 2°C) lead to decreasing valuations due to a rapid drop in demand, while less restrictive scenarios (Current Policies, NDCs, and Fragmented World) show positive trends.
• The cement industry is highly vulnerable to transition risks, specifically carbon taxes, which could cause net utilities to become negative by 2035 in most scenarios except for 'Current Policies'.
• The energy sector is expected to grow across most scenarios, with the highest dynamism in medium-to-high ambition policies as renewables substitute fossil fuels, although strict policies increase the impact of carbon taxes on revenues.
• For Colombian 10-year sovereign bonds, orderly scenarios (such as Net Zero 2050) result in the lowest yields (YTM), suggesting lower macroeconomic risk and higher investor confidence compared to disorderly transitions.
• US 10-year sovereign bond yields are primarily determined by monetary policy rates; the Net Zero 2050 scenario suggests higher average policy rates to control inflation during a rapid productive transformation.
• Aggregated portfolio results show that higher exposure to equity increases the volatility of the portfolio's valuation across different climate scenarios, with the 'Current Policies' scenario showing the highest growth and 'Net Zero 2050' showing the greatest long-term devaluation.
• The analysis identifies a specific risk for the gas sector in Colombia: while it is not compatible with goals below 2°C, its role in energy reliability and the 'just energy transition' makes a rapid exit difficult.

APA

Vargas, X. R., Aparicio, S. M., Dueñas, C., & Ramos, S. (2025). Introducción a la evaluación de escenarios climáticos en portafolios de inversión. Transforma. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/250330-Guia-para-analisis-de-escenarios-climaticos.pdf

Chicago

Vargas, Ximena Rugeles, Sebastián Mejía Aparicio, Carolina Dueñas, and Silvy Ramos. Introducción a la evaluación de escenarios climáticos en portafolios de inversión. Transforma, 2025. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/250330-Guia-para-analisis-de-escenarios-climaticos.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Vargas |first1=Ximena Rugeles |last2=Aparicio |first2=Sebastián Mejía |last3=Dueñas |first3=Carolina |last4=Ramos |first4=Silvy |title=Introducción a la evaluación de escenarios climáticos en portafolios de inversión |publisher=Transforma |date=2025 |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/250330-Guia-para-analisis-de-escenarios-climaticos.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{vargas2025introduccin, author = {Vargas, Ximena Rugeles and Aparicio, Sebastián Mejía and Dueñas, Carolina and Ramos, Silvy}, title = {{Introducción a la evaluación de escenarios climáticos en portafolios de inversión}}, institution = {Transforma}, year = {2025}, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/250330-Guia-para-analisis-de-escenarios-climaticos.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }