Airstrike-Only Military Interventions and Their Civilian Consequences

The research examines how NATO's airstrike-only intervention during the Kosovo War affected Albanian civilian victimization. Using a novel dataset (Kosovo Airstrike Locator) and the Kosovo Memory Book, the author finds that while the overall introduction of airstrikes coincided with a dramatic increase in civilian deaths, recently struck municipalities actually saw a decrease in expected victimization. However, this direct effect was offset by indirect consequences: the shift in strike strategy to target military units intensified the violence following battles and KLA soldier deaths, and shifted the geography of victimization toward more populous areas and those with lower Albanian population percentages. The author concludes that airstrike-only interventions can intensify conflict and increase civilian vulnerability, suggesting they should not be the primary tool for protecting civilians without a credible ground-force threat.

• The introduction of NATO airstrikes was associated with a significant increase in the overall level of Albanian civilian victimization. In the period immediately preceding the strikes, an average of 12.5 Albanian civilians were killed per day, which rose to nearly 200 per day immediately following the intervention.
• At a municipal level, the occurrence of airstrikes was significantly associated with a decrease in the expected count of Albanian civilian victimization in the short term. In the late war period, each additional strike-day in a 5-day window decreased the expected count of victims by 17.46%, and in a 7-day window by 16.47%.
• The shift in NATO's strike strategy on April 23, 1999, to directly target Yugoslav military units, was associated with an increase in the overall levels of Albanian civilian victimization.
• In the late war period, the relationship between a municipality's ethnic composition and victimization shifted: municipalities with a higher percentage of Albanians experienced significantly lower levels of Albanian civilian victimization.
• The occurrence of battles and KLA soldier deaths had a stronger positive association with civilian victimization in the late war period than in the early war. For example, a battle at time T was associated with a 315% increase in victimization in the late war, compared to 254% in the early war.
• The study found no significant evidence to support the 'logic of retaliation' regarding Yugoslav soldier deaths, meaning that Yugoslav troop losses did not have a statistically significant relationship with increased Albanian civilian victimization in either the early or late war periods.

APA

Williams, C. (2022). Airstrike-Only Military Interventions and Their Civilian Consequences. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1e1abfaf-4518-416b-ba01-ccf22e7115d0/Airstrike-only Military Interventions and Their Civilian Consequences.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Williams, Chandler. Airstrike-Only Military Interventions and Their Civilian Consequences. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2022. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1e1abfaf-4518-416b-ba01-ccf22e7115d0/Airstrike-only Military Interventions and Their Civilian Consequences.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Williams |first1=Chandler |title=Airstrike-Only Military Interventions and Their Civilian Consequences |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2022 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1e1abfaf-4518-416b-ba01-ccf22e7115d0/Airstrike-only Military Interventions and Their Civilian Consequences.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{williams2022airstrikeonly, author = {Williams, Chandler}, title = {{Airstrike-Only Military Interventions and Their Civilian Consequences}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2022}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1e1abfaf-4518-416b-ba01-ccf22e7115d0/Airstrike-only Military Interventions and Their Civilian Consequences.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }