Can Pre-Election Protests Influence Voter Behaviour?

The study analyzes the impact of the 2019 Anti-ELAB movement on voter behavior in Hong Kong. Using logistic regression on survey and event data, the author finds that protests and police brutality mobilize individuals who identify as "Hongkongers" to vote for opposition parties, while having the opposite effect on those who identify as "Chinese". Nonviolent protests were found to be more effective in inducing defections from the regime among those with a local identity.

• Opposition protests in a respondent's district increase the likelihood that previous non-voters who identify as "Hongkongers" will vote for opposition parties in the 2019 election.
• Conversely, pre-election protests reduce the likelihood that previous non-voters who identify as "Chinese" will vote for opposition parties.
• Police brutality, specifically the use of teargas, increases the probability that previous non-voters identifying as "Hongkongers" will switch to voting for the opposition and decreases their likelihood of voting for incumbent parties.
• For previous non-voters identifying as "Chinese", teargas events decrease the likelihood of voting for the opposition and increase the likelihood of voting for incumbent parties.
• Nonviolent protests significantly increase the likelihood that previous regime supporters who identify as "Hongkongers" will defect to opposition parties.
• Violent protests increase the likelihood that "Hongkongers" who previously did not vote will switch to the opposition, while they increase the likelihood that "Chinese" non-voters will switch to incumbent parties.
• The study found no statistically significant evidence that teargas use influenced the likelihood of previous regime supporters defecting to the opposition.

APA

Nilsen, A. (2021). Can Pre-Election Protests Influence Voter Behaviour? Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/574e2383-102f-4816-947c-c627ecd634ee/MA Thesis Amalie Nilsen.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Nilsen, Amalie. Can Pre-Election Protests Influence Voter Behaviour? Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2021. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/574e2383-102f-4816-947c-c627ecd634ee/MA Thesis Amalie Nilsen.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Nilsen |first1=Amalie |title=Can Pre-Election Protests Influence Voter Behaviour? |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2021 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/574e2383-102f-4816-947c-c627ecd634ee/MA Thesis Amalie Nilsen.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{nilsen2021can, author = {Nilsen, Amalie}, title = {{Can Pre-Election Protests Influence Voter Behaviour?}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2021}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/574e2383-102f-4816-947c-c627ecd634ee/MA Thesis Amalie Nilsen.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }