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Does Gender Equality Matter? The Effect Of Gender Equality On Protest Campaign Success
The study finds that higher levels of women's political empowerment are positively associated with the success of nonviolent resistance campaigns and negatively associated with the success of violent campaigns. Using the NAVCO 2.1 dataset and the Women's Political Empowerment Index (WPEI), the author argues that gender equality shapes both the societal norms regarding the legitimacy of violence and the opportunity structures for recruitment. While the results for nonviolent campaigns are robust across various specifications, the findings for violent campaigns are more sensitive to how time dependency is handled. The author concludes that gender-related dynamics are critical structural elements in understanding the outcomes of collective action.
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Document type: Research paper
Can Pre-Election Protests Influence Voter Behaviour?
The study analyzes the impact of the 2019 Anti-ELAB movement on voter behavior in Hong Kong. Using logistic regression on survey and event data, the author finds that protests and police brutality mobilize individuals who identify as "Hongkongers" to vote for opposition parties, while having the opposite effect on those who identify as "Chinese". Nonviolent protests were found to be more effective in inducing defections from the regime among those with a local identity.
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Document type: Research paper
Impact framing and experience for determining acceptable levels of climate change risk: A lab experiment
The study finds that visual appeals (photos) significantly lower the acceptable level of risk by triggering emotional and moral reasoning, though this effect is diminished when numeric data is presented as a range rather than a single value. Additionally, participants who experienced simulated damages increased their investment in protection in subsequent rounds, suggesting a reactive 'gut' response to experience that differs from the reflective reasoning triggered by visual cues.
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Document type: Research paper
Breaking the Waves? Does Education Mediate the Relationship Between Youth Bulges and Political Violence?
The research finds that large youth cohorts significantly increase the risk of political violence primarily in societies with low male secondary education levels. This effect is most pronounced in low and middle-income countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study supports the 'opportunity cost' hypothesis, suggesting that higher education reduces the incentive for young men to join rebel organizations. Conversely, it finds no evidence that rapid educational expansion or low progression ratios between education levels increase conflict risk.
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Document type: Research paper
The Devil in the Demographics: The Effect of Youth Bulges on Domestic Armed Conflict, 1950-2000
The study finds that youth bulges significantly increase the risk of domestic armed conflict, particularly when combined with economic stagnation. Using a dataset of sovereign states and dependent areas from 1950 to 2000, the author argues that the risk is heightened in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa and the Arab world where youth bulges coexist with poor economic performance and unstable political regimes. The research rejects Samuel P. Huntington's theory of a specific 'critical level' threshold for conflict and suggests that previous World Bank studies failed to find these effects due to flawed measurement methods. Additionally, the author identifies migration as a critical 'safety valve' that can mitigate youth discontent.
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Document type: Research paper
Household in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA) -Ghana
The report examines the intersection of poverty, environmental degradation, and health in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA). It identifies critical deficiencies in water supply, sanitation, solid waste management, and air quality, linking these to high prevalences of childhood diarrhoea and respiratory infections. The study highlights that while the wealthy have better access to amenities, the poor face severe risks from shared facilities, water vendors, and biomass cooking fuels. It concludes that integrated environmental strategies and poverty alleviation are essential for improving public health in the region.
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Document type: Report
Economists and Crises
The report presents survey results from 920 economics students and graduates across 85 countries, finding that a vast majority believe the discipline's reliance on neoclassical economics fails to prepare them for real-world crises. Key findings highlight a lack of teaching on alternatives to the price mechanism during pandemics, the absence of links between the economy and the environment, and a failure to address systemic racial and gender biases. The authors advocate for curriculum reform that incorporates other social sciences and diverse schools of thought to produce economists capable of addressing contemporary global challenges.
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Document type: Report
Artisanal mining, conflict, and sexual violence in Eastern DRC
The study finds that women living near ASM sites in Eastern DRC are more likely to experience both intimate partner sexual violence and sexual violence by others. This risk is particularly acute for women in North Kivu, South Kivu, and Maniema living near mines controlled by armed actors.
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Document type: Research paper
Explaining External Support for Insurgent Groups
The research examines the determinants of external state support for rebel groups using a new dataset of 403 organizations. It argues that support is not merely a function of the civil war's general characteristics but depends on the specific attributes of the rebel group and the international relations of the target state. The findings indicate that moderately strong groups with transnational constituencies are most likely to receive aid, particularly when the target state is involved in an international rivalry or receives its own external support. Conversely, very strong or very weak groups, and those in democratic states, are less likely to be supported.
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Document type: Research paper
Gender Gap or Gender Bias in Peace Research?
The study analyzes data from the Journal of Peace Research (JPR) from 1983 to 2008 to examine the gender gap in academic publishing. While the authors find a clear but declining gender gap in the number of submissions and published articles, they find no evidence of significant gender bias in the acceptance process or in citation counts. The results suggest that the observed productivity gap is not driven by editorial bias, and that co-authorship positively influences both publication success and citation impact regardless of gender.
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Document type: Research paper
Inequality and Conflict in Federations
The authors use geo-coded data from 31 federal states to argue that both relatively rich and relatively poor regions are more prone to secessionist conflict than those with average wealth. The study also finds that the presence of politically excluded ethnic groups and the existence of regional autonomy further elevate the risk of violent secessionist conflict.
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Document type: Research paper
Population Pressure, Horizontal Inequality and Political Violence: A Disaggregated Study of Indonesian Provinces, 1990–2003
The study examines whether resource scarcity and inter-group inequalities drive political violence at a sub-national level in Indonesia. While population growth and horizontal inequality show little effect in isolation, their interaction significantly increases the risk of 'routine' violence. The authors find that in provinces with high population growth, greater inequality between religious groups elevates the risk of violence, suggesting that demographic pressure may amplify existing social segmentations.
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Document type: Research paper
Poverty, Inequality, and Conflict
The authors argue that national-level GDP per capita is an ambiguous proxy for the drivers of civil war, as conflict is typically a localized phenomenon. Using a global grid of 0.5-degree cells and G-Econ data for 1990, they test three hypotheses: that poorer areas are more prone to conflict (H1), that pockets of wealth in poor countries attract insurgency (H2), and that deviations from national income averages increase risk (H3). Preliminary results indicate that conflict onsets are more likely in poorer areas of a state and that the relationship between Gross Cell Product (GCP) per capita and conflict risk follows an inverted U-shape, peaking at approximately $1,300 per capita.
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Document type: Research paper
Environmental Problems and the Urban Household in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA) -Ghana
The report investigates the intersection of poverty and environmental degradation in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA), Ghana. It finds that low-income households suffer from severe deficiencies in water access, sanitation, and waste management, which correlate strongly with high prevalences of childhood diarrhoea and acute respiratory infections. The study highlights that while the city has some advanced infrastructure, extreme crowding and unreliable supply systems negate these advantages for the poor. It concludes that an integrated environmental-health strategy, leveraging both government action and local community organisations, is necessary to improve urban welfare.
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Document type: Report