Breaking the Waves? Does Education Mediate the Relationship Between Youth Bulges and Political Violence?

The research finds that large youth cohorts significantly increase the risk of political violence primarily in societies with low male secondary education levels. This effect is most pronounced in low and middle-income countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study supports the 'opportunity cost' hypothesis, suggesting that higher education reduces the incentive for young men to join rebel organizations. Conversely, it finds no evidence that rapid educational expansion or low progression ratios between education levels increase conflict risk.

• The interaction between large youth cohorts and low education levels is particularly strong in low and middle-income countries, with significant relevance for Sub-Saharan Africa.
• The study supports the hypothesis that education increases the opportunity cost of rebel labor, making rebellion less attractive to more highly educated youth.
• Rapid expansions in secondary and tertiary education do not increase the risk of armed conflict; in fact, secondary education expansion is statistically associated with lower risk.
• Low educational progression ratios from primary to secondary education were found to be unrelated to the risk of armed conflict.
• The analysis suggests that increasing educational levels for females may also have an indirect pacifying effect on conflict risk.

APA

Barakat, B., & Urdal, H. (2009). Breaking the Waves? Does Education Mediate the Relationship Between Youth Bulges and Political Violence? Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/bf914510-7188-4ab2-97eb-d02ceaf25b16/WPS5114.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Barakat, Bilal, and Henrik Urdal. Breaking the Waves? Does Education Mediate the Relationship Between Youth Bulges and Political Violence? Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2009. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/bf914510-7188-4ab2-97eb-d02ceaf25b16/WPS5114.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Barakat |first1=Bilal |last2=Urdal |first2=Henrik |title=Breaking the Waves? Does Education Mediate the Relationship Between Youth Bulges and Political Violence? |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=November 2009 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/bf914510-7188-4ab2-97eb-d02ceaf25b16/WPS5114.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{barakat2009breaking, author = {Barakat, Bilal and Urdal, Henrik}, title = {{Breaking the Waves? Does Education Mediate the Relationship Between Youth Bulges and Political Violence?}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2009}, month = nov, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/bf914510-7188-4ab2-97eb-d02ceaf25b16/WPS5114.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }