Poverty, Inequality, and Conflict

The authors argue that national-level GDP per capita is an ambiguous proxy for the drivers of civil war, as conflict is typically a localized phenomenon. Using a global grid of 0.5-degree cells and G-Econ data for 1990, they test three hypotheses: that poorer areas are more prone to conflict (H1), that pockets of wealth in poor countries attract insurgency (H2), and that deviations from national income averages increase risk (H3). Preliminary results indicate that conflict onsets are more likely in poorer areas of a state and that the relationship between Gross Cell Product (GCP) per capita and conflict risk follows an inverted U-shape, peaking at approximately $1,300 per capita.

• The authors argue that national-level economic data are insufficient for explaining civil war because conflict is usually a localized event occurring in peripheral regions that may differ significantly from national averages.
• Preliminary data analysis shows that both Gross Cell Product (GCP) per capita and national GDP per capita are lower for cells experiencing conflict onset compared to those that do not.
• The study finds that most conflict locations have a local GCP per capita that is lower than the overall national GDP per capita, including in middle-income countries like Russia where conflicts in the Caucasus occur in very poor regions.
• Regression analysis suggests a non-linear relationship between local income and conflict risk, specifically an inverted U-shape where the highest risk of onset is found in cells with a GCP per capita of approximately $1,300.
• There is a statistically significant difference in conflict risk between the lowest and highest income cells; moving from the 10th to the 95th percentile of GCP per capita reduces the chance of onset by approximately 2%.

APA

Buhaug, H., Gleditsch, K. S., Holtermann, H., & Østby, G. (n.d.). Poverty, Inequality, and Conflict. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1020840b-334f-4d09-ac8e-b393bfccf36d/Poverty Inequality and Conflict.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Buhaug, Halvard, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, Helge Holtermann, and Gudrun Østby. Poverty, Inequality, and Conflict. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1020840b-334f-4d09-ac8e-b393bfccf36d/Poverty Inequality and Conflict.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Buhaug |first1=Halvard |last2=Gleditsch |first2=Kristian Skrede |last3=Holtermann |first3=Helge |last4=Østby |first4=Gudrun |title=Poverty, Inequality, and Conflict |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1020840b-334f-4d09-ac8e-b393bfccf36d/Poverty Inequality and Conflict.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{buhaugndpoverty, author = {Buhaug, Halvard and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede and Holtermann, Helge and Østby, Gudrun}, title = {{Poverty, Inequality, and Conflict}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1020840b-334f-4d09-ac8e-b393bfccf36d/Poverty Inequality and Conflict.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }