Inequality and Conflict in Federations

The authors use geo-coded data from 31 federal states to argue that both relatively rich and relatively poor regions are more prone to secessionist conflict than those with average wealth. The study also finds that the presence of politically excluded ethnic groups and the existence of regional autonomy further elevate the risk of violent secessionist conflict.

• Regional economic inequality is robustly associated with the onset of secessionist conflict, with both relatively affluent and underdeveloped regions facing a higher risk than those close to the national average.
• The presence of politically excluded ethnic groups within a region significantly increases the likelihood of that region experiencing secessionist conflict.
• Regional autonomy for the largest excluded ethnic group further increases the probability of secessionist conflict, as autonomous institutions can provide resources and entrench identities that fuel separatism.
• The relationship between regional inequality and secessionist conflict persists regardless of whether a state is a federation or a non-federation.
• Control variables indicate that higher national population density and higher national GDP per capita are associated with an increased likelihood of secessionist conflict, while a history of prior conflict in a specific administrative unit also raises the risk.

APA

DEIWIKS, C., CEDERMAN, L.-E., & GLEDITSCH, K. S. (n.d.). Inequality and Conflict in Federations. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/45ea5ced-8bce-4b77-8cbd-49b9ac6ff57d/Inequality and Conflict in Federations.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

DEIWIKS, CHRISTA, LARS-ERIK CEDERMAN, and KRISTIAN SKREDE GLEDITSCH. Inequality and Conflict in Federations. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/45ea5ced-8bce-4b77-8cbd-49b9ac6ff57d/Inequality and Conflict in Federations.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=DEIWIKS |first1=CHRISTA |last2=CEDERMAN |first2=LARS-ERIK |last3=GLEDITSCH |first3=KRISTIAN SKREDE |title=Inequality and Conflict in Federations |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/45ea5ced-8bce-4b77-8cbd-49b9ac6ff57d/Inequality and Conflict in Federations.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{deiwiksndinequality, author = {DEIWIKS, CHRISTA and CEDERMAN, LARS-ERIK and GLEDITSCH, KRISTIAN SKREDE}, title = {{Inequality and Conflict in Federations}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/45ea5ced-8bce-4b77-8cbd-49b9ac6ff57d/Inequality and Conflict in Federations.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }