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Can Pre-Election Protests Influence Voter Behaviour?
The study analyzes the impact of the 2019 Anti-ELAB movement on voter behavior in Hong Kong. Using logistic regression on survey and event data, the author finds that protests and police brutality mobilize individuals who identify as "Hongkongers" to vote for opposition parties, while having the opposite effect on those who identify as "Chinese". Nonviolent protests were found to be more effective in inducing defections from the regime among those with a local identity.
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Document type: Research paper
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