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Indonesia faces imminent energy security challenges, with demand for electricity and transport fuel expected to grow rapidly by 2030. While the government has set ambitious targets for renewable energy (23% by 2025) and emission reductions (29-41% by 2030), current investments follow a 'business as usual' fossil fuel path. Structural barriers include policy inconsistency, limited fiscal space, and a political culture of transactional politics and decentralisation that often favours the exploitation of domestic coal. However, opportunities exist in geothermal energy, waste-to-energy, and energy efficiency, alongside governance reforms like the 'One Map' initiative and increased foreign direct investment to mitigate the financial risks of transitioning to a low-carbon economy.

The report argues that Bangladesh's state-dominated oil market and ad-hoc pricing policy create severe fiscal burdens, hinder investment, and encourage carbon emissions. It finds that oil subsidies primarily benefit the rich and upper-middle classes rather than the poor. To address these issues, the authors recommend a phased transition toward market-based pricing, the deregulation of all oil market segments to encourage private investment, and the implementation of targeted cash transfers to protect vulnerable populations from price increases.

The report investigates the financial instability of electricity distribution companies (discoms) in Rajasthan, India, and uses survey data to analyze consumer attitudes toward tariff reform. It finds a widespread lack of awareness regarding the scale of electricity subsidies and strong opposition to price increases due to the high proportion of household budgets spent on power. However, it identifies potential for reform among urban populations and a minority willing to pay more for improved reliability.

The document details how a network of officials and politicians captured the Nelson Mandela Bay Metropolitan Municipality, specifically within the Human Settlements and Integrated Public Transport System (IPTS) departments. It describes the use of 'deviations' in procurement to funnel funds to a small pool of contractors and the role of political factions within the ANC in enabling this corruption. The author analyzes these events through frameworks of neo-patrimonialism and the 'political marketplace,' noting that such capture led to administrative decay, financial crises, and a loss of public trust, eventually resulting in a decline in ANC electoral support in the 2016 elections. The paper concludes by evaluating a 2015 intervention led by Mayor Danny Jordaan and the National Department of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs (COGTA) to restore accountability and clean up the administration.

The report examines Colombia's struggle to transition toward green growth while remaining heavily dependent on oil and coal exports. It highlights a fragmented state where ministries tied to extractive industries often oppose environmental regulations. While the country has a low-carbon electricity grid dominated by hydropower, it is vulnerable to climate-induced droughts, leading to a push for thermal power and fracking. The report suggests linking renewable energy incentives to post-conflict rural development and leveraging a vanguard of sustainable private sector companies to drive a national transition.

The report 'Hostile Takeover' by Global Witness exposes how the family of Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has established a dominant grip on the country's economy and political apparatus. By mining government corporate registry data, the investigation reveals that the family has registered interests in 114 companies with listed capital exceeding US$200 million, spanning sectors from energy and mining to media and gambling. The document details how this economic power is used to reinforce political control, often through the use of proxies and shell companies to obscure ownership. It further highlights the social and environmental costs of these business interests, including forced evictions and land grabs. The report warns international investors of the legal and reputational risks of doing business with the Hun family and recommends stringent due diligence and governance reforms in Cambodia.

The SEI Initiative on Fossil Fuels and Climate Change, launched in January 2015, focuses on the supply side of climate policy to prevent the 'lock-in' of fossil fuel dependence. The initiative investigates the emissions implications of infrastructure, the political economy of extraction, and the role of international governance. It employs a multi-disciplinary approach involving energy modelling and political economy analysis, with specific case studies in Colombia, South Africa, Indonesia, Norway, and the U.S. to examine the interplay between resource exploitation and low-carbon development goals.

The report argues that fossil-fuel subsidies disadvantage renewable energy by impairing its cost competitiveness, reinforcing incumbent fossil-fuel-based infrastructure, and distorting investment decisions. It details various subsidy mechanisms—including fuel input subsidies, funding of utility losses, and tax breaks—and highlights how these create an artificial advantage for thermal generation. The document also examines the role of underpriced externalities and the political economy of the energy sector in resisting reform. It concludes that reforming these subsidies is a priority for transitioning to a sustainable energy system, though it notes that governments often opt for 'second-best' renewable energy incentives instead of removing fossil-fuel supports.

The policy brief argues that peace agreements in the DRC, specifically the Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement and the Addis Ababa Framework Agreement (AAFA), reflect shifts in economic power between the eastern Kivus and the southern Katanga province. While early conflicts and the ICGLR were driven by the exploitation of coltan and other minerals in the east by Rwanda and Uganda, the subsequent rise of copper and cobalt investments in Katanga shifted geopolitical influence toward SADC states.

The document analyzes the complex relationship between China and Zimbabwe between 2003 and 2013. It argues that the partnership is rooted in China's support for ZANU during the liberation war and has evolved into a strategic alliance where Zimbabwe uses Chinese economic and diplomatic backing to weather Western sanctions. The paper details extensive Chinese investments in mining (particularly diamonds), agriculture, telecommunications, and infrastructure, while noting significant domestic opposition in Zimbabwe due to allegations of human rights abuses, environmental neglect, and the stifling of local businesses. It also explores China's role in shielding Zimbabwe from UN Security Council sanctions and its tactical engagement with the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).

The document analyzes the drivers and barriers to low-carbon energy in Kenya, noting that while energy security and climate vulnerability favor renewables, recent oil and gas discoveries may hinder this transition.

The report analyzes the failure of international interventions in the DRC's security sector between 2003 and 2013. It argues that the 'technocratic interpretation' of violence as a lack of state capacity ignored the neo-patrimonial nature of the Congolese state, where elites benefit from a fragmented and divided military (FARDC). While the 2013 defeat of the M23 rebellion provided a temporary success and a window for reform, the authors warn that the underlying political incentives for maintaining a weak, divided army remain strong. The report critiques the 'train and equip' model of SSR and the early phases of the International Security and Stabilization Support Strategy (ISSSS), suggesting that future efforts must move beyond technical fixes to address local community grievances and the opaque power structures in Kinshasa.

The document examines the role of 'emerging powers'—specifically China, India, Russia, and Brazil—in the two Sudans following the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement and South Sudan's 2011 independence. It highlights China as the most dominant actor, particularly in the oil and infrastructure sectors, while India's role is significant but more limited. The analysis argues that the 'South-South cooperation' rhetoric used by these states masks a reality of extractive economic interests that reinforce Sudan's unbalanced political economy. The paper details how the 2011 secession of South Sudan stripped Sudan of 75% of its oil production, leading to economic decline and shifting the strategic focus of Asian investors. It also discusses the impact of conflicts in Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile on foreign investments and the role of these powers in peacekeeping and arms transfers.

The research examines the potential for a 'resource curse' in four African nations soon to become oil-dependent. Using a game-theoretic model and the concept of 'limited access orders,' the author argues that oil rents typically disrupt political incentives, undermining economic performance and potentially destabilizing the state. While Ghana is identified as a potential exception due to its robust democracy and lower projected oil-to-tax revenue ratio, the other cases show higher risks of repression or predatory behavior. The paper concludes that radical policy interventions like 'cash-to-citizen' transfers are implausible because they ignore the domestic political equilibria and patronage networks that maintain stability.

The document examines the socio-economic instability of South Africa's platinum belt, specifically following the 2012 Marikana tragedy. It argues that the 'oscillating migrant labour' system persists because of a 'double balance' in the national elite bargain, where the ruling ANC and traditional authorities maintain insecure communal land tenure to ensure a steady supply of cheap labour. The author contends that corporate social investment (CSI) and Integrated Development Plans (IDPs) are insufficient to address these structural issues due to coordination failures and the exclusion of 'informal' migrant settlers. The paper recommends reforming land tenure legislation, prohibiting traditional authorities from operating as corporations, restricting politically connected elites from BEE transactions, and implementing more humane, shorter migration work cycles.

The paper identifies six primary risk factors for conflict in Mozambique: history of violence and political party dynamics, geographic distribution, poverty and inequality, expectations, corruption, and the cost of extraction. While the authors conclude that full-scale civil war is improbable, they warn of a high likelihood of periodic pockets of violence, particularly in resource-rich regions where political opposition is strong and local populations feel marginalised.

The document explores the 'humanitarian drone' as a 'war dividend' from military spending, arguing that the transfer of UAV hardware—including surveillance, cargo, and weaponized drones—also transfers military rationales such as 'surgical precision' and 'targeting logic' into the humanitarian sector. The authors warn that the push for humanitarian drones is driven by a commercial logic to gain legitimacy for the UAV industry and may lead to the dehumanization of suffering or a lowered threshold for the use of force through 'humanitarian combat drones.' While drones offer potential for improved aid delivery and crisis mapping, the paper emphasizes that technology is not neutral and cannot replace the empathy and ethical judgment essential to humanitarian work.

The paper argues that Egypt's decision to join the TFTA is driven by a combination of geopolitical interests, a long-term shift toward trade liberalisation, and a desire to maintain influence in Africa. While static economic gains may be modest due to existing COMESA memberships and structural barriers, the author suggests that the TFTA offers a more consistent policy path than joining a customs union, potentially enhancing Egypt's role as an investment hub and improving relations with other African states.

The document analyzes the decline of South Africa's mining sector, linking it to labour market inefficiency and a dysfunctional institutional framework. It argues that the current legal and political environment encourages a 'prisoners' dilemma' between mining houses and unions, where mutual defection (wildcat strikes) becomes the dominant strategy. The author suggests that democratizing labour relations through balloting and introducing credible third-party penalties for violence could transform this into an 'assurance game' that promotes long-term industry sustainability.

The document examines the oil industry in South Sudan following the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement and the country's 2011 independence. It argues that oil revenues have been mismanaged by political elites, leading to endemic corruption and a failure to provide basic services to a population where 90% earn less than a dollar a day. The paper details the economic crisis caused by the January 2012 oil production shutdown, the subsequent austerity measures, and the diplomatic pressure from the US and China that led to the resumption of oil flow in 2013.