Resource Abundance in Mozambique: Avoiding Conflict, Ensuring Prosperity

The paper identifies six primary risk factors for conflict in Mozambique: history of violence and political party dynamics, geographic distribution, poverty and inequality, expectations, corruption, and the cost of extraction. While the authors conclude that full-scale civil war is improbable, they warn of a high likelihood of periodic pockets of violence, particularly in resource-rich regions where political opposition is strong and local populations feel marginalised.

• Mozambique possesses vast natural resource reserves, including an estimated 20 billion tonnes of coal primarily in Tete, Manica, and Niassa provinces, and proven gas reserves of 127.4 billion cubic metres mostly in the Rovuma Basin.
• The country faces significant infrastructure deficits that hinder resource extraction; for example, Rio Tinto Coal Mozambique suffered a $3 billion impairment partly because the government denied approval to transport coal via barges on the Zambezi River, leaving companies dependent on the overcapacity Sena Railway or costly road options.
• Political tensions between the ruling Frelimo party and the opposition Renamo have escalated since early 2013, with Renamo using retaliatory attacks on transport infrastructure and military posts to pressure the government.
• There is a dangerous overlap between the geographic locations of natural resource extraction and the strongholds of the opposition party Renamo, which may exacerbate conflict if wealth distribution is perceived as unfair.
• Severe socio-economic inequality persists, with 60.7% of the population considered victims of severe poverty as of 2013, and the highest density of poor people located in northern provinces far from the capital, Maputo.
• High public expectations for immediate improvements in quality of life create a risk of unrest, as resource rents may not be received by the government for four to five years.
• Corruption is a systemic issue in Mozambique, with 45% of respondents in a 2013 survey identifying public sector corruption as a serious problem and 74% viewing public officials or civil servants as corrupt.
• The cost of extraction includes environmental degradation and the forced relocation of communities; in Tete province, protests have occurred due to inadequate compensation and poor living conditions in relocation sites like Cateme.
• The authors conclude that while a return to full-scale civil war is improbable, there is a high likelihood of periodic 'pockets of violence' if the government fails to implement transparent governance and inclusive development.

APA

Green, C., & Otto, L. (2014). Resource Abundance in Mozambique: Avoiding Conflict, Ensuring Prosperity. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Occasional-Paper-173.pdf

Chicago

Green, Cayley, and Lisa Otto. Resource Abundance in Mozambique: Avoiding Conflict, Ensuring Prosperity. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2014. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Occasional-Paper-173.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Green |first1=Cayley |last2=Otto |first2=Lisa |title=Resource Abundance in Mozambique: Avoiding Conflict, Ensuring Prosperity |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=February 2014 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Occasional-Paper-173.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{green2014resource, author = {Green, Cayley and Otto, Lisa}, title = {{Resource Abundance in Mozambique: Avoiding Conflict, Ensuring Prosperity}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2014}, month = feb, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Occasional-Paper-173.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }