Search Climate Insights Directory

The author contends that the Doha Development Round is 'dead' following the Nairobi Ministerial, a failure attributed to a shift in global power from a US-led hegemony toward a multipolar system including China and India. To prevent the fragmentation of the multilateral trading system caused by 'megaregional trade agreements', the paper suggests moving away from the 'single undertaking rule' and the 'consensus principle'. Instead, it proposes a 'plurilateral' approach where smaller interest groups negotiate sectoral agreements and link regional deals to the WTO dispute settlement mechanism. The author specifically urges emerging economies like South Africa to embrace plurilaterals to advance their trade interests, noting that the traditional North-South divide has been replaced by more complex interests, with countries like China, Brazil, and India now also utilizing agricultural subsidies.

The paper examines the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) as a catalyst for Ethiopia's transition toward a low-carbon, 'green' economy and its ambition to become a primary electricity exporter in East Africa. It details the dam's technical specifications, its integration into Ethiopia's Growth and Transformation Plans, and the role of regional bodies like the Eastern Africa Power Pool (EAPP) and the Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) in facilitating energy trade. The author argues that while the GERD offers a significant opportunity for regional integration, its success depends on overcoming hydro-hegemonic tensions with downstream states, improving trans-boundary environmental assessments, and harmonizing national energy policies across the region.

The document analyzes the shift in Indian foreign policy under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, moving toward a more proactive and assertive 'geo-economic' approach. It examines how this strategy integrates Africa into India's broader geostrategic space, stretching from the Suez to the Pacific, and evaluates the outcomes of the third India–Africa Forum Summit (IAFS III). The authors argue that while India seeks to enhance its soft power and energy security, the relationship must evolve from a focus on Indian-sourced credit lines to partnerships that support African industrialization and manufacturing.

The document analyzes China's 'Agricultural Going Out' strategy in Africa, noting that while investment is relatively small—amounting to $406 million by 2011—it is strategically focused on cash crops and diplomatic alliance-building. It distinguishes between small-scale private ventures serving local markets and larger state-led projects targeting cash crops for international or Chinese markets. The paper details the shift from production-centric models toward downstream logistics and the prevalence of farm/plantation and contract farming models.

The author critiques the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), questioning whether a projected 0.5% GDP increase for the EU is plausible given high unemployment and the risk of increasing social inequality. The text identifies five core challenges: the impact of austerity on domestic demand, the difficulty of harmonizing regulatory standards (such as GMOs and shale gas) due to differing risk-aversion models, the lack of EU unity in key sectors like energy and finance, the influence of American lobbies, and the complexities of managing two international reserve currencies. The author contends that the TTIP shifts focus away from the EU Single Market, potentially allowing a U.S. "divide and conquer" strategy. Furthermore, the document suggests that a Euro-American regulatory block could be perceived by China as a containment strategy and warns that increasing economic dependence on the U.S. undermines European strategic parity and the goals of a common defence policy.

The report analyzes how the internal conflict in South Sudan has become an arena for regional power struggles. It details the competing interests of Uganda and Sudan, the security concerns of Ethiopia and Eritrea, and the economic and hydropolitical motivations of Kenya and Egypt. The author argues that these external interventions, particularly the military involvement of Uganda and the proxy interests of Sudan, have regionalized the crisis and undermined the mediation efforts of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).

The document examines the strategic realignment in the Eastern Mediterranean involving the Republic of Cyprus (RoC), Israel, and Turkey. It argues that while the RoC, Israel, and Greece have formed a new security bloc to balance Turkey's naval ambitions, a structural need to contain Iranian influence is driving a rapprochement between Israel and Turkey. This shift is further incentivized by commercial imperatives, as the discovery of Egypt's Zohr gas field makes Turkey a more viable export market for Israeli natural gas. The author contends that these twin dynamics—the Turkey-Israel rapprochement and the RoC-Israel-Greece security formation—provide a new balance of incentives and guarantees that could facilitate a resolution to the Cyprus conflict.

The policy brief examines the 'special partnership' between Russia and Turkey, noting that while they disagree on the Syrian civil war, they share autocratic political instincts and a mutual desire to curtail US interventionism. The author argues that Russia can boost its Middle Eastern role through joint initiatives with Turkey, leveraging the personal chemistry between Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. While energy ties—specifically natural gas pipelines and the Akkuyu nuclear power plant—provide a foundation, the document suggests that the leaders' shared 'contrarian' tendencies and need for foreign policy victories are primary drivers for potential cooperation in Northern Syria and the South Caucasus.

The document analyzes India's transition from a borrower to an owner in multilateral financial institutions, its internal development finance structure, and its strategic use of development assistance to project soft power and counterbalance China's influence in South Asia. It highlights the tension between India's global aspirations and its domestic infrastructure deficit, which is estimated at $1 trillion under its 12th Five-Year Plan.

The document examines the role of northern Europe, particularly Sweden, in the global production of iron ore and copper. It analyzes how global demand, dominated by China, creates 'boom and bust' cycles that impact local economies and environments. Using Chile as a comparative case, it highlights how resource scarcity and social resistance can limit production, while China's market dominance creates geopolitical dependencies for exporting nations. For northern Europe, the brief suggests that stable regulatory frameworks and assured ancillary resources may attract investment, though stakeholders must remain wary of the social and political implications of foreign mining companies.

The policy brief argues that peace agreements in the DRC, specifically the Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement and the Addis Ababa Framework Agreement (AAFA), reflect shifts in economic power between the eastern Kivus and the southern Katanga province. While early conflicts and the ICGLR were driven by the exploitation of coltan and other minerals in the east by Rwanda and Uganda, the subsequent rise of copper and cobalt investments in Katanga shifted geopolitical influence toward SADC states.

The paper examines Ethiopia's position regarding the COMESA FTA, concluding that while trade liberalisation could increase general welfare through cheaper imports, it poses significant risks to Ethiopia's infant manufacturing sector, potentially leading to job losses and revenue reductions. It highlights that Ethiopia is pursuing regional integration through bilateral infrastructure and energy projects—such as the LAPSSET Corridor and hydropower exports—rather than formal trade liberalisation.

The document examines the strategic importance of rare earth minerals (REMs) for clean technologies and the geopolitical friction caused by China's dominance of their production. It highlights how China's shift toward environmental regulation and energy security has led to export restrictions, triggering WTO disputes with the USA, Japan, and the EU. The author argues that the REM case reveals the inadequacy of current international trade governance in balancing short-term economic priorities with long-term sustainability and resource scarcity.

Brazil has reframed its South Atlantic strategy to protect significant pre-salt oil and gas deposits, leading to a naval modernisation programme and a 'Blue Amazon' campaign to foster a maritime mentality. This strategy includes pursuing the expansion of its continental shelf through UNCLOS, developing a nuclear-propulsion attack submarine in co-operation with France, and establishing a 'goodwill belt' of defence ties with West African states. Brazil also seeks to revive the South Atlantic Peace and Co-operation Zone (Zopacas) to assert regional leadership and limit the influence of outside powers like NATO.

The research paper argues that South Africa's military involvement in the Central African Republic (CAR) is driven by a desire to contest Western influence and secure resource interests. It highlights the CAR's wealth in diamonds, uranium, and potential oil, which has attracted Chinese investment and caused friction with France. The author notes that South Africa's efforts to resist 'western interference' have been undermined by a lack of regional diplomatic support and insufficient intelligence infrastructure, leading to a 'humiliating experience' in the face of more established international rivals.

The statement analyzes South Africa's role in the BRICS forum and its aspirations for global governance reform, while cautioning that domestic instability and military setbacks in the Central African Republic may undermine its international prestige and leadership in Africa.

The document analyzes the bipolar rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia within the Persian Gulf Regional Security Complex, examining how their competition for ideological leadership, regional security dominance, and energy market control influences their strategic engagement in Afghanistan. It explores the role of global powers—the USA, Russia, and China—in reinforcing these regional divisions and assesses the potential for a cooperative security architecture in the region.

The document analyzes the strategic relationship between Russia and South Africa, noting that while political ties are strong and mutually beneficial for challenging existing global governance structures (such as the IMF and G-20), economic cooperation remains significantly underdeveloped. It highlights South Africa's role as a gateway to the African continent and the potential for BRICS to serve as a coordination mechanism for developing nations to increase their bargaining power in global forums. The authors argue that increasing trade and investment flows is essential to making the BRICS forum more credible and reliable.

The document assesses the security and economic relationships between Afghanistan and its neighbours, including Pakistan, Iran, China, Russia, India, and Central Asian states. It argues that Afghanistan's stability depends on a combination of internal political reconciliation, the strengthening of national security forces, and a regional shift toward economic interdependence. The author suggests that by serving as a 'land bridge' for energy and trade, Afghanistan can motivate neighbouring states to support its stability rather than treating it as a zone for proxy competition.

The document analyzes the EU-South Africa Strategic Partnership against a backdrop of the euro-zone crisis and the rise of BRICS. While the EU remains South Africa's primary trading partner and a key donor, the relationship is strained by perceptions of EU imperialism, disputes over Economic Partnerships Agreements (EPAs), and disagreements on the reform of Bretton Woods institutions. Despite these frictions, the author argues that shared values of multilateralism and constitutionalism make the partnership essential for both parties to navigate a changing global order.