Afghanistan and Its Neighbourhood

The document assesses the security and economic relationships between Afghanistan and its neighbours, including Pakistan, Iran, China, Russia, India, and Central Asian states. It argues that Afghanistan's stability depends on a combination of internal political reconciliation, the strengthening of national security forces, and a regional shift toward economic interdependence. The author suggests that by serving as a 'land bridge' for energy and trade, Afghanistan can motivate neighbouring states to support its stability rather than treating it as a zone for proxy competition.

• Afghanistan has the potential to transition from a zone of contestation to a regional hub of connectivity and energy trade, which would motivate neighbouring countries to ensure its stability by creating shared economic stakes.
• Pakistan is identified as a central but contradictory actor; while it is essential for peace due to its influence over the Taliban and Haqqani network, it has historically used these groups to maintain 'strategic depth' and counter Indian influence.
• Iran's approach to Afghanistan is primarily driven by a desire to prevent the rise of Sunni fundamentalism and a strategic opposition to the US military presence, leading it to occasionally support the Taliban as a tactical measure.
• China's engagement is characterized by a focus on economic investment and infrastructure, such as the US$ 88 billion copper mine in Aynak, while remaining cautious about security risks related to Uighur separatists.
• India focuses on economic reconstruction and capacity building to generate goodwill and strategic influence, while seeking to move beyond the narrow prism of its rivalry with Pakistan.
• Russia views Afghanistan through the lens of its 'near abroad' in Central Asia, fearing that instability could fuel radicalism in Chechnya, and prefers a limited role focused on counter-terrorism and narcotics.
• Central Asian states (Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan) primarily fear the spill-over of transnational crime and radicalisation, though they often lack the military or economic capacity to influence Afghanistan independently.
• The Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) face significant viability challenges, including low morale, high desertion rates, and ethnic imbalances that could lead to fragmentation along ethnic lines.
• The proliferation of private militias and the 'arbakai' system, often funded by international forces, has led to increased criminalisation and human rights abuses, undermining the central government's authority.
• Regional organisations like the SCO, CSTO, and SAARC have played limited roles due to a lack of consensus among members and a tendency for states to prefer bilateral arrangements over multilateral security frameworks.

APA

Pattanaik, S. S. (2013). Afghanistan and Its Neighbourhood. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/77698c3c-6e1c-4707-84f2-0dedf9bdd5ec/Pattanaik S 2013 Afghanistan and Its Neighbourhood PRIO Paper.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Pattanaik, Smruti S. Afghanistan and Its Neighbourhood. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2013. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/77698c3c-6e1c-4707-84f2-0dedf9bdd5ec/Pattanaik S 2013 Afghanistan and Its Neighbourhood PRIO Paper.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Pattanaik |first1=Smruti S. |title=Afghanistan and Its Neighbourhood |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2013 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/77698c3c-6e1c-4707-84f2-0dedf9bdd5ec/Pattanaik S 2013 Afghanistan and Its Neighbourhood PRIO Paper.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{pattanaik2013afghanistan, author = {Pattanaik, Smruti S.}, title = {{Afghanistan and Its Neighbourhood}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2013}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/77698c3c-6e1c-4707-84f2-0dedf9bdd5ec/Pattanaik S 2013 Afghanistan and Its Neighbourhood PRIO Paper.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }