Nairobi and Doha’s Presumption of Death

This research paper analyzes the outcomes of the 2015 World Trade Organization (WTO) Ministerial Conference in Nairobi, Kenya, arguing that the conference effectively signaled the end of the Doha Development Round. The author examines the geopolitical shifts causing this failure and proposes a transition toward plurilateral agreements and the integration of megaregional trade deals into the WTO framework to maintain the viability of the multilateral trading system.

• The 2015 WTO Ministerial Conference in Nairobi effectively ended the Doha Development Round by omission, despite not explicitly doing so. This failure is attributed to a shift in global geopolitical power from a US-led hegemony toward a more multi-polar architecture involving China and India.
• The failure of the Doha Round highlights the unviability of the 'single undertaking' rule—where nothing is agreed until everything is agreed—and the consensus principle in a world with diverse and competing economic interests.
• To ensure the multilateral trading system remains viable, the author suggests moving toward plurilateral agreements (voluntary agreements between smaller interest groups) and linking megaregional agreements, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, to the WTO's dispute settlement mechanism.
• The traditional North-South divide among WTO member states has eroded. Issues like agricultural subsidies are no longer exclusive to the US and EU, as China, Brazil, and India have also become significant actors in this regard, necessitating a reconfiguration of how developing countries, including South Africa, approach the WTO.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2016). Nairobi and Doha’s Presumption of Death. https://saiia.org.za/research/nairobi-and-doha-s-presumption-of-death/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Nairobi and Doha’s Presumption of Death. 2016. https://saiia.org.za/research/nairobi-and-doha-s-presumption-of-death/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Nairobi and Doha’s Presumption of Death |date=11 February 2016 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/nairobi-and-doha-s-presumption-of-death/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2016nairobi, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Nairobi and Doha’s Presumption of Death}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2016}, month = feb, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/nairobi-and-doha-s-presumption-of-death/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }