Nairobi and Doha’s Presumption of Death

The author contends that the Doha Development Round is 'dead' following the Nairobi Ministerial, a failure attributed to a shift in global power from a US-led hegemony toward a multipolar system including China and India. To prevent the fragmentation of the multilateral trading system caused by 'megaregional trade agreements', the paper suggests moving away from the 'single undertaking rule' and the 'consensus principle'. Instead, it proposes a 'plurilateral' approach where smaller interest groups negotiate sectoral agreements and link regional deals to the WTO dispute settlement mechanism. The author specifically urges emerging economies like South Africa to embrace plurilaterals to advance their trade interests, noting that the traditional North-South divide has been replaced by more complex interests, with countries like China, Brazil, and India now also utilizing agricultural subsidies.

• The 2015 WTO Ministerial Conference in Nairobi is interpreted as having ended the Doha Development Round by omission, despite no overt decision to do so.
• The failure of the Doha Round is attributed to a shift in global geopolitical architecture, moving from a period of US hegemony to a transition where power is shifting toward China and India.
• The 'single undertaking rule' (where nothing is agreed until everything is agreed) and the 'consensus principle' are identified as structural flaws that are no longer viable in a multipolar world with competing interests.
• To maintain the WTO's relevance against 'megaregional trade agreements', the author suggests adopting 'plurilaterals'—voluntary agreements between smaller interest groups—and linking regional deals to the WTO dispute settlement mechanism.
• The traditional North-South divide in trade negotiations has eroded, as emerging economies like China, Brazil, and India now employ agricultural subsidies and domestic support similar to the US and EU.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2016). Nairobi and Doha’s Presumption of Death. https://saiia.org.za/research/nairobi-and-doha-s-presumption-of-death/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Nairobi and Doha’s Presumption of Death. 2016. https://saiia.org.za/research/nairobi-and-doha-s-presumption-of-death/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Nairobi and Doha’s Presumption of Death |date=11 February 2016 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/nairobi-and-doha-s-presumption-of-death/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2016nairobi, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Nairobi and Doha’s Presumption of Death}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2016}, month = feb, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/nairobi-and-doha-s-presumption-of-death/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }