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The document analyzes the vulnerability of global economic infrastructure to climate hazards such as flooding, extreme temperatures, and permafrost melt. It argues for a comprehensive approach to adaptation that integrates climate risk analysis 'upstream' into the planning, design, and financing stages of the infrastructure lifecycle. Key findings highlight significant risks to road networks, thermoelectric and hydropower plants, and water supplies, while proposing solutions ranging from nature-based 'Sponge Cities' to performance-based engineering standards and programmatic financing.

Nigeria aims to produce nuclear energy by 2025 and reach 4,800 megawatts of capacity by 2035, primarily through a 'build-own-operate' model with potential partners like Russia and China. However, the document warns that these plans are complicated by severe climate risks—including desertification in the north and sea-level rise in Lagos—and persistent security threats from groups like Boko Haram and ISWAP. While Nigeria has successfully removed highly enriched uranium from its research reactor with international help, the briefing argues that the government must better integrate climate and security risks into the design and transport of future nuclear facilities to avoid vulnerabilities.

The document assesses the multifaceted threats climate change poses to global food security, highlighting that while some high-latitude regions may see productivity gains, the global South—especially sub-Saharan Africa—faces severe risks of yield losses and increased hunger. It argues for a systemic approach to adaptation, moving beyond autonomous adjustments to planned strategies. Key priorities include increasing public investment in agricultural research, adopting Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA), expanding irrigation, and improving the resilience of food value chains. The authors emphasize that adaptation must be balanced with greenhouse gas mitigation and social equity, particularly regarding gender and youth in agriculture.

The document examines the intersection of climate change, security, and adaptation, arguing that climate impacts act as 'threat multipliers' that can destabilize states and international relations. It highlights risks such as transboundary water conflicts, food insecurity, Arctic geopolitical shifts, and mass migration. The authors warn against 'maladaptation'—adaptation efforts that inadvertently increase inequality or tension—and advocate for a 'preventive' approach. Key recommendations include creating multidimensional early warning systems, implementing risk-tolerant and 'nexus' financing for insecure regions, and ensuring adaptation strategies are timely, strategically targeted, and informed by political economy analysis to avoid exacerbating existing social and political frictions.

The document examines the material risks climate change poses to global supply chains and the current state of private sector adaptation. It argues that while companies recognize climate risks, they often misdiagnose them by focusing on exposure rather than underlying vulnerability. Using the cotton industry as a detailed example, the paper proposes a resilience framework based on six capital assets—natural, human, social, physical, financial, and political—and provides recommendations for companies to commit to science-based resilience strategies and gender-transformative empowerment of women workers.

As of 30 June 2019, the Green Climate Fund (GCF) reports that portfolio concentration and liquidity remain within approved risk tolerance levels, with no non-performing loans for eight consecutive quarters. The portfolio consists of 101 approved funding proposals totaling USD 4.97 billion equivalent, with a distribution of 44% mitigation, 22% adaptation, and 13% cross-cutting projects. Geographically, Africa holds the largest share of approved funding at 43%, followed by Asia-Pacific at 31%. The fund maintains a foreign exchange commitment risk buffer of USD 46.6 million equivalent.

The document assesses the viability of biogas in Indonesia through two pathways: a low-cost household-scale option for cooking and lighting, and a high-investment large-scale option for electricity production. While biogas offers significant GHG mitigation potential—estimated at 6.4 million tons CO2/year for small digesters and 2.6 GW for large-scale production—its development is hindered by a lack of government priority, high initial investment costs, and competing fossil fuel subsidies. The report identifies critical risks including inadequate monitoring of household systems, bureaucratic distribution, and the unreliability of biogas-fuelled power plants. It recommends that the Indonesian government formulate clear renewable energy targets, strengthen monitoring standards, and introduce favorable feed-in tariffs to incentivize private investment.

The document outlines a USD 41.7 million programme designed to protect agriculture and fisheries in Fiji, Samoa, and the Solomon Islands from biosecurity threats exacerbated by climate change. It proposes three main outcomes: implementing climate-adapted farming systems, strengthening national and regional early warning systems, and enhancing the enabling environment through better data and policy coordination. The programme aims to benefit over 1.6 million people by reducing vulnerability to pests like the Coconut Rhinoceros Beetle and Taro Leaf Blight, which have historically caused severe economic losses in the region.

Egypt is advancing its nuclear energy sector, primarily through the El Dabaa plant project with Russian support, to meet growing electricity demands and reduce fossil fuel dependence. However, this expansion occurs against a backdrop of domestic political consolidation, regional instability in Libya and Sudan, and severe climate risks. The Nile Delta is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and saltwater intrusion, which could threaten coastal nuclear infrastructure and destabilize the economy. The report urges the U.S. to renew its leadership in nuclear nonproliferation and encourages Egypt to integrate comprehensive climate security assessments into its nuclear planning.

The report examines the business models of commodity trading companies, specifically those dealing in non-fuel minerals, and identifies potential tax risks for host countries. It finds that while most trading is conducted at arm's length, risks emerge from profit-based fiscal instruments, opaque corporate structures, and specific financing arrangements like metal streaming. The authors recommend strengthening legal frameworks through mandatory contract registration, the use of globally recognized prices for tax calculations, and increased financial disclosure requirements for private trading firms.

The report highlights the critical need for sustainable cooling to address health, food security, and economic risks affecting billions of people. It identifies a cooling gap impacting approximately 1.1 billion people in extreme heat, while noting that 2.3 billion low-to-middle-income individuals risk driving climate disasters by adopting low-efficiency cooling products. The document advocates for a coordinated approach integrating the Sustainable Development Goals, the Paris Agreement, and the Kigali Amendment to promote high-efficiency technologies, passive cooling, and innovative business models.

The document argues that consolidated interim storage of high-level radioactive waste is a risky and counterproductive plan that creates unnecessary transportation and security hazards. It highlights two specific license applications—one by Waste Control Specialists in Texas and another by Holtec International in New Mexico—and asserts that these projects face significant legal, technical, and community opposition. The authors claim that such facilities would not accelerate the move to permanent repositories and could instead become de facto permanent sites, while posing severe risks of radiation exposure and economic disaster in the event of a transport accident.

South Africa faces a cumulative transition risk of over $120 billion in present value terms between 2013 and 2035, primarily driven by declining global demand for coal exports. While investors initially bear the majority of this risk, implicit transfers and contingent liabilities could shift more than half of the total risk onto the national government, potentially jeopardising its investment-grade sovereign credit rating. The report identifies significant risks to state-owned enterprises like Transnet and Eskom, and private entities such as Sasol and Exxaro. Conversely, a global transition could provide a $45.5 billion windfall for consumers through lower oil prices. The document recommends that the South African government avoid new carbon-intensive investments, develop fiscal tools to capture oil windfalls to offset coal losses, and implement transparent transition plans for workers and municipalities.

The report evaluates the 4.1 km Rabat bypass road, including the Mohammed VI bridge, using the SAVi tool to simulate six risk scenarios and four external factors. The analysis finds that the project is not financially viable based on its own revenues across all scenarios, as evidenced by negative Net Present Values (NPV) and insufficient Internal Rates of Return (IRR). However, integrating external factors—specifically the value of time saved and accident costs—significantly alters the cost-benefit analysis, demonstrating that conventional financial assessments underestimate the true risks and benefits of the infrastructure.

The document outlines a climate risk assessment of water resources in Uganda's Ruhezamyenda catchment, emphasizing the need to address risks from changing temperatures, rainfall patterns, and extreme weather. It aims to integrate these findings into local planning and the National Adaptation Plan (NAP), while noting the use of Nature-Based Solutions since 2015 to reduce climate vulnerability through ecosystem restoration and management.

The document introduces the Transition Pathways and Risk Analysis for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies (TRANSrisk) project, which analyzes the risks and innovation requirements for shifting from carbon-intensive to low-carbon systems to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. It identifies six categories of transition risks: economic, regulatory/institutional, political, social, environmental, and technological.

The paper identifies that the EU's global connectivity via people, capital, and goods exposes it to climate risks originating outside its borders. It finds that many EU countries exceed global averages in exposure related to trade openness, globalization, asylum, and transboundary water dependency. To address these risks, the authors introduce a typology of cross-border impacts and highlight the need for improved supply chain modelling and the application of existing cohesion and external action mechanisms to build resilience.

The US corporate renewable energy market has expanded rapidly, with over 6 GW of announcements in 2018 alone, yet risk mitigation tools have not kept pace. The document identifies five key risks unfamiliar to corporate buyers—price, basis, shape, volume, and operational risk—and proposes a "many-sizes-for-all" approach. It outlines eight specific mitigation solutions, including five within the virtual power purchase agreement (VPPA) construct (hub-settled VPPAs, floors and collars, proxy generation, volume firming agreements, and fixed volume swaps) and three outside it (long-term REC agreements, project tranches, and contract tranches).

The Q4 2019 Risk Dashboard reports that the Green Climate Fund's portfolio concentration and liquidity remain within approved risk tolerance levels. As of December 31, 2019, the fund managed a portfolio of 124 approved funding proposals with a total value of USD 20.63 billion, including GCF's approved funding of USD 5.63 billion. The portfolio is distributed across Africa (39%), Asia-Pacific (34%), Latin America and the Caribbean (23%), and Eastern Europe (4%), with a funding balance of 42% mitigation and 21% adaptation (excluding cross-cutting projects). The fund reports no non-performing loans for the past eight quarters and maintains a foreign exchange commitment risk buffer of USD 86.9 million.

This report examines the expansion of geothermal power in Kenya, highlighting its role in the country's climate mitigation goals and the challenges of attracting private investment due to social, political, and environmental risks.