Converging Risks in Nigeria: Nuclear Energy Plans, Climate Fragility, and Security Trends

Nigeria aims to produce nuclear energy by 2025 and reach 4,800 megawatts of capacity by 2035, primarily through a 'build-own-operate' model with potential partners like Russia and China. However, the document warns that these plans are complicated by severe climate risks—including desertification in the north and sea-level rise in Lagos—and persistent security threats from groups like Boko Haram and ISWAP. While Nigeria has successfully removed highly enriched uranium from its research reactor with international help, the briefing argues that the government must better integrate climate and security risks into the design and transport of future nuclear facilities to avoid vulnerabilities.

• Nigeria intends to generate nuclear energy by 2025 and achieve a capacity of 4,800 megawatts by 2035. To reach this, the government is considering a 'build-own-operate' model where foreign suppliers, such as Russia or China, construct and operate the plants for several decades before transferring ownership.
• The country faces extreme climate-driven fragility, with approximately 24% of the population in 'high climate exposure areas.' This includes desertification affecting up to 60% of the country in the north and significant flooding risks in the south, where a half-meter sea level rise could displace between 27 and 53 million people.
• Violent extremism and climate stress are mutually reinforcing in Nigeria. Terrorist groups like Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) exploit food and water shortages, as well as conflicts between Muslim Fulani pastoralists and Christian farmers driven by land degradation, to recruit members and gain safe havens.
• Nigeria successfully removed weapons-usable highly enriched uranium from its research reactor at Ahmadu Bello University in late 2018. This multilateral operation cost nearly $5.5 million, with the United States providing the majority of the funding and the material being transported to China via a Russian plane.
• There are significant gaps in Nigeria's nuclear security framework, including a lack of comprehensive nuclear laws and a low perception of threat among reactor designers. The document notes a concerning tendency for officials to claim that proposed nuclear sites are located in areas where violent extremism cannot occur, which the authors argue is an unrealistic assumption for the long term.

APA

Rezzonico, A., & Parthemore, C. (2019). Converging Risks in Nigeria: Nuclear Energy Plans, Climate Fragility, and Security Trends. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/converging-risks-in-nigeria-nuclear-energy-plans_climate-fragility_and-security-trends_briefer-3_2019_08_28.pdf

Chicago

Rezzonico, Andrea, and Christine Parthemore. Converging Risks in Nigeria: Nuclear Energy Plans, Climate Fragility, and Security Trends. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2019. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/converging-risks-in-nigeria-nuclear-energy-plans_climate-fragility_and-security-trends_briefer-3_2019_08_28.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rezzonico |first1=Andrea |last2=Parthemore |first2=Christine |title=Converging Risks in Nigeria: Nuclear Energy Plans, Climate Fragility, and Security Trends |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=28 August 2019 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/converging-risks-in-nigeria-nuclear-energy-plans_climate-fragility_and-security-trends_briefer-3_2019_08_28.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rezzonico2019converging, author = {Rezzonico, Andrea and Parthemore, Christine}, title = {{Converging Risks in Nigeria: Nuclear Energy Plans, Climate Fragility, and Security Trends}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2019}, month = aug, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/converging-risks-in-nigeria-nuclear-energy-plans_climate-fragility_and-security-trends_briefer-3_2019_08_28.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }