Search Climate Insights Directory

The research paper analyzes the strategic motivations for terrorism in civil wars using a new dataset linking the Uppsala/PRIO Armed Conflict Data and the Global Terrorism Database. It argues that terrorism serves to coerce governments and communicate resolve, particularly for militarily weaker groups. The study finds that the frequency of attacks increases with government repression and press freedom. Furthermore, it identifies a correlation between group ideology and targeting: groups with universalist ideologies (e.g., Marxist-socialist) predominantly target 'hard' official targets, while those with sectarian or religious ideologies are more likely to target 'soft' civilian targets due to stronger 'othering' of out-groups.

The research examines the link between water scarcity and intrastate conflict, arguing that the relationship is not deterministic but is mediated by domestic political institutions. Using a simultaneous equations model for 98 countries (1981–2000), the authors find that while water scarcity does not directly increase the probability of conflict, it does negatively impact the likelihood of democratic institutions emerging. Crucially, the study finds that democratic regimes are more effective at mitigating the risk of conflict in water-scarce conditions. The authors suggest an 'ecological trap' where water scarcity promotes autocracy, which in turn fails to manage resources effectively, potentially leading to a cycle of scarcity, autocracy, and conflict.

The document details fossil fuel expansion financing from BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole, Groupe BPCE, and Société Générale across three subsectors: oil and gas production, transport infrastructure (LNG and pipelines), and gas-fired electricity production.

The report identifies a significant disparity in electric productivity (GDP per kWh) across U.S. states. After normalizing for climate and economic composition, RMI finds a remaining gap of 1.2 million GWh annually. Closing this gap could reduce projected 2020 electricity demand by 34% compared to business-as-usual scenarios while maintaining economic growth.

The South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) developed the Climate Change and Economic Vulnerability Index (CEVI) and the Climate Change and Economic Resilience Index (CERI) to address the misalignment of climate finance. Using data from 160 countries, the indices reveal that low-income economies, particularly in Africa, face the highest vulnerability and lowest resilience. An analysis of 2021 OECD adaptation finance flows shows that funds are often misallocated, with more resilient and less vulnerable countries sometimes receiving higher per-person funding than those in the most critical need. The paper recommends that international financial institutions mainstream these indices to ensure needs-based allocation of climate support.

The report finds that mini-grid tariffs in Sierra Leone (USD 0.74–0.82/kWh) are significantly higher than subsidized tariffs in Nigeria (as low as USD 0.30/kWh). The primary cost drivers in Sierra Leone are return on investment (37%) and plant operating and maintenance costs (33%). Key recommendations include extending license periods from 20 to 25 years to lower depreciation, excluding unutilized capacity from tariffs to avoid transferring market risk to consumers, and implementing bulk procurement of equipment to achieve economies of scale.

The 2021 Production Gap report by the Stockholm Environment Institute finds that global government plans for fossil fuel production in 2030 are more than double what is required to limit warming to 1.5°C. Despite net-zero pledges, most major producers plan to increase or maintain production, and G20 nations have provided more new funding to fossil fuels than clean energy since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The study tested three behavioral interventions to increase the adoption of improved cookstoves in Kenya. While initial results showed improvements in health awareness, these findings lost statistical significance when controlling for village fixed effects and baseline imbalances. No significant increase in cookstove purchases was observed, with cost and lack of financing identified as primary barriers.

The report argues that for a climate regime to be politically viable, it must protect the right of the global poor to develop. Using the Greenhouse Development Rights (GDR) framework, it calculates Sweden's obligation as a share of global effort based on a 'Responsibility Capacity Index' (RCI). The analysis finds that Sweden's obligation is significantly higher than current political targets, requiring a 'two-fold obligation' of deep domestic emission cuts and substantial international investments to enable decarbonized development in the global South.

The document details two environmental justice studies. The first analyzed PM2.5 emissions from natural gas and coal-fired power plants in the Northeast US between 2011 and 2015. The second used GIS buffer analysis to determine if low-income households and people of color live closer to PFAS-contaminated facilities than white or higher-income households in the US and Michigan. Findings for PFAS contamination show that in Michigan, 48.72% of households within five miles of a contaminated site are low-income, compared to 14.51% statewide. Nationally, people of color represent 34.59% of the population within three miles of PFAS sites, compared to 27.03% of the general US population.

The document provides the technical basis for estimating EV charging emissions and costs in the US. It explains the use of average emissions intensity based on EPA eGRID data, adjusted for transmission losses and upstream feedstock emissions. It also describes a modified Oak Ridge Competitive Electricity Dispatch (ORCED) model used for hourly emissions estimates. Additionally, it outlines the process for calculating residential charging costs across 50 US cities, accounting for tiered rates, time-of-use (TOU) plans, and specific utility data.

WRI analysis indicates that Pennsylvania can reduce its power plant CO2 emissions by 21 percent below 2011 levels by 2020 using existing policies and infrastructure. This would meet or exceed moderately ambitious EPA standards, which are estimated to require reductions between 22 and 31 percent. Key opportunities include meeting alternative energy and energy efficiency targets, increasing the use of combined heat and power (CHP) and natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants, and improving coal plant efficiency.

The report analyzes greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Utilizing the World Resources Institute's Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT-US), it examines all six Kyoto GHGs across the regional economy to overcome inconsistencies in previous state-level inventories. The analysis covers regional, sectoral, and state levels, assessing major emission sources, trends, and socioeconomic drivers to inform stakeholders on the Midwest's role in global climate change.

The document examines the varied forms of greenhouse gas targets set by G20 countries, noting that many do not explicitly state absolute future emissions. To improve clarity, the paper converts these targets into absolute emissions levels for the years 2020, 2025, and 2030 and provides visual representations of these limits.

The analysis of 22 Indian companies with science-based targets (SBTs) indicates that full implementation could reduce India's total 2030 GHG emissions by 0.51% to 0.62% and industry sector emissions by 1.89% to 2.4%. Between 2021 and 2030, achieving these SBTs would result in cumulative reductions of 165.9 million MtCO2e in Scope 1 and 15.8 million MtCO2e in Scope 2, slowing the average annual emissions growth rate from a business-as-usual 3.89% to 3.07%. The paper also finds that companies with prior sustainability goals, such as energy efficiency or renewable energy targets, are more likely to adopt absolute-emissions-based SBTs.

The document reports that the 25 countries with the highest greenhouse gas emissions were responsible for approximately 80 percent of global emissions in 2005, excluding bunker fuels and emissions from land-use change and forestry.

The analysis identifies 105 cities with populations over one million across 34 Global South countries where electrification is currently a viable low-carbon strategy. Suitability is determined by a minimum 90 percent urban electricity access rate and a carbon intensity of electricity supply below 600 tCO2e/GWh. While all South American cities meet these criteria, suitability is significantly lower in sub-Saharan Africa (3 out of 40 cities) and South and East Asia (26 out of 202 cities).

The analysis of ninety-three intergovernmental initiatives reveals that while global participation appears broad, representation from the Global South is critically low in key sectors such as industry, transport, and buildings. The landscape is dominated by developed countries and the top ten emitters per sector, which limits Global South access to capacity-building and information sharing. While agriculture is the most inclusive sector, others like industry show severe gaps, with 73% of initiatives excluding Least Developed Countries (LDCs).

The Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems (PAGE) finds that human activities have extensively altered coastal ecosystems worldwide, with nearly 30% of land area destroyed or modified. Growing coastal populations and increased nutrient pollution from fertilizers, sewage, and aquaculture are degrading these systems, while overfishing has depleted major fish stocks. The report warns that global climate change will likely exacerbate these pressures through rising sea levels and warmer ocean temperatures.

WRI analysis indicates that Ohio can reduce its CO2 emissions by 27 percent below 2011 levels by 2020 by leveraging existing state policies and infrastructure. Key drivers include the Renewable and Advanced Energy Portfolio Standard (RPS), which could yield a 7 percent reduction, and the Energy Efficiency Resource Standard (EERS), which could provide a 10 percent reduction. Infrastructure opportunities include increasing combined heat and power (CHP) capacity, improving the operating capacity of combined cycle natural gas (NGCC) plants, and enhancing the efficiency of coal-fired power plants.