Measuring Economic Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change

The South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) developed the Climate Change and Economic Vulnerability Index (CEVI) and the Climate Change and Economic Resilience Index (CERI) to address the misalignment of climate finance. Using data from 160 countries, the indices reveal that low-income economies, particularly in Africa, face the highest vulnerability and lowest resilience. An analysis of 2021 OECD adaptation finance flows shows that funds are often misallocated, with more resilient and less vulnerable countries sometimes receiving higher per-person funding than those in the most critical need. The paper recommends that international financial institutions mainstream these indices to ensure needs-based allocation of climate support.

• SAIIA developed two quantitative tools, the Climate Change and Economic Vulnerability Index (CEVI) and the Climate Change and Economic Resilience Index (CERI), to facilitate needs-based decision-making for climate fund allocations. The CEVI uses seven indicators focusing on economic exposure, such as dependence on agriculture and food security, while the CERI uses five indicators measuring efficiency, diversification, and government effectiveness.
• There is a strong inverse relationship between climate vulnerability and economic resilience, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of -0.7. Low-income economies, especially those in Africa, typically exhibit high vulnerability and low resilience, whereas high-income Western economies generally show low vulnerability and high resilience.
• African countries are disproportionately affected, with an average vulnerability score of 0.48 compared to the global average of 0.4. Nine of the 10 most vulnerable countries globally are African, a situation driven largely by the continent's dependence on agriculture and food security challenges.
• Analysis of 2021 OECD adaptation finance flows reveals a misalignment where the most vulnerable and least resilient countries often receive less funding per person than less vulnerable or more resilient countries. For example, the three most vulnerable countries—Madagascar, Haiti, and Uganda—received approximately $11 per person, while less vulnerable countries like Costa Rica received $53.9 per person.
• The least resilient country globally is Libya, followed by Guinea-Bissau, Iraq, and Turkmenistan, demonstrating that income level is not the sole determinant of economic resilience.

APA

Matola, J. (n.d.). Measuring Economic Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_29_MeasuringEconVulnerability-1.pdf

Chicago

Matola, Joseph. Measuring Economic Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change. South African Institute of International Affairs, n.d. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_29_MeasuringEconVulnerability-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Matola |first1=Joseph |title=Measuring Economic Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_29_MeasuringEconVulnerability-1.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{matolandmeasuring, author = {Matola, Joseph}, title = {{Measuring Economic Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_29_MeasuringEconVulnerability-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }