Measuring Economic Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change

This research paper by the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) introduces two new indices—the Climate Change and Economic Vulnerability Index (CEVI) and the Climate Change and Economic Resilience Index (CERI)—to provide a quantitative basis for the allocation of climate finance. The author argues that current climate finance, particularly OECD adaptation funding, is misaligned with the actual vulnerability and resilience of recipient countries, often favoring middle-income nations over the most vulnerable low-income economies, particularly in Africa.

• The South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) developed two indices, the Climate Change and Economic Vulnerability Index (CEVI) and the Climate Change and Economic Resilience Index (CERI), to facilitate needs-based climate finance allocation. The CEVI uses seven indicators covering climate-related disasters, temperature change, agricultural dependency, arable land, water stress, and undernourishment. The CERI uses five indicators: energy intensity, water productivity, cereal yield, export product concentration, and government effectiveness.
• Analysis of 160 countries shows that low-income economies, especially in Africa, exhibit the highest vulnerability and lowest resilience to climate change. African countries have an average vulnerability score of 0.48, exceeding the global average of 0.4. Nine of the 10 most vulnerable countries are African, with Madagascar, Haiti, and Uganda ranking as the top three most vulnerable.
• Economic resilience is not determined solely by income level, although high-income European countries like Denmark and Luxembourg are the most resilient. Conversely, Libya, an upper-middle-income country, is ranked as the least resilient country globally (160th), followed by Guinea-Bissau and Iraq.
• There is a strong negative correlation (-0.7) between climate vulnerability and economic resilience, meaning countries most exposed to climate shocks are typically the least equipped to handle them. This is particularly evident in lower-income and African countries, which frequently fall into the category of being both highly vulnerable and lacking resilience.
• OECD adaptation finance allocations for 2021 show a misalignment with country needs. The most vulnerable countries often receive less funding per person than less vulnerable ones; for example, Madagascar, Haiti, and Uganda received approximately $11 per person, while Tunisia, Costa Rica, and Colombia received $25.6, $53.9, and $23.4 respectively. Some highly vulnerable nations, such as Guinea-Bissau and Ethiopia, received as little as $2.6 and $4.2 per person.
• The misalignment is most severe when viewed through the lens of resilience. The 27 least resilient countries received an average of $10 per person in OECD adaptation financing, while the 26 most resilient countries received more than double that amount at $22. The three least resilient countries—Libya, Guinea-Bissau, and Iraq—each received less than $4 per person.

APA

Matola, J. (n.d.). Measuring Economic Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_29_MeasuringEconVulnerability-1.pdf

Chicago

Matola, Joseph. Measuring Economic Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change. South African Institute of International Affairs, n.d. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_29_MeasuringEconVulnerability-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Matola |first1=Joseph |title=Measuring Economic Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_29_MeasuringEconVulnerability-1.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{matolandmeasuring, author = {Matola, Joseph}, title = {{Measuring Economic Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_29_MeasuringEconVulnerability-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }