Search Climate Insights Directory
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We must prepare for decades more extreme, damaging weather
The document highlights findings from the 2026 federal assessment of Canada's changing climate, warning that Canada will be nearly 3 C warmer over the next two decades regardless of future emissions. It emphasizes that while some warming is unavoidable, failing to cut global emissions could lead to 5 C of warming by 2100, causing the near-total disappearance of glaciers and severe permafrost thaw. The author calls for immediate investment in infrastructure adaptation—noting that every dollar spent now avoids up to $15 in losses—and a swifter national transition to clean power to avoid uncontrollable devastation.
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Document type: Statement
Climate change is reducing early wet season rainfall in Puerto Rico and Jamaica
The report finds that human-induced climate change has reduced rainfall in Jamaica by approximately 6% and in Puerto Rico by about 9%. These changes have increased the likelihood of severe effective precipitation events in both regions compared to a pre-industrial climate. The study highlights that warmer temperatures intensify drought severity through higher evaporation, making the 2026 early wet season rainfall deficits more frequent and severe.
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Document type: Report
Climate change exposes millions of Hajj pilgrims to deadly heat for increasingly longer parts of the year
A World Weather Attribution study finds that climate change has shifted extreme heat earlier into the year in Saudi Arabia, making May temperatures in Mecca as dangerous as summer temperatures were between 1970 and 1990. The analysis indicates that peak May temperatures are now approximately 2°C hotter and average May temperatures are approximately 3.5°C higher than in a preindustrial climate. This trend increases the risk of heat stroke and exhaustion for millions of pilgrims, with projections suggesting that if global temperatures rise by 3°C, 97% of Hajj pilgrimages would occur during periods of dangerous heat.
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Document type: Research paper
Snowfall Trends
The document details the impact of rising temperatures on winter sports, noting that all cities hosting the Winter Olympics since 1950 have warmed. It highlights that the 2026 host cities, Milan and Cortina d'Ampezzo, have seen significant temperature increases and a decrease in freezing days. Projections indicate a sharp decline in climate-reliable host sites by the 2050s, particularly for the Paralympic Games held in March.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Urban Heat Hot Spots in 65 Cities
Climate Central analysis of 221 marathons indicates that the probability of optimal, cool race-day temperatures is decreasing due to global warming. For recreational runners in the U.S., the current average chance of optimal temperatures is 27%, and this is projected to decline in 46 of 51 analyzed U.S. marathons by 2045 if high levels of heat-trapping pollution continue. The analysis highlights regional disparities, with the Northwest having the best current odds (55%) and the Southwest the worst (14%). Beyond performance, the document notes that rising heat and humidity increase risks of heat-related illness and that climate-driven air quality issues, such as wildfire smoke, further threaten runner health.
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Document type: Briefing
More Extreme Heat in National Parks
The 25 most-visited national parks in the contiguous U.S. are projected to see a nearly five-fold increase in extremely hot days per year by 2050 under a 'warm wet' scenario, and up to a ten-fold increase under a 'hot dry' scenario. These trends, combined with record-breaking visitation, increase the risk of heat-related illnesses for visitors and threaten biodiversity and infrastructure. The National Park Service is implementing adaptation strategies, such as the Climate Change Response Strategy, to mitigate these risks.
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Document type: Briefing
Compound flooding in Halmstad
The study examines compound flooding in Halmstad, Sweden, identifying a correlation between river discharge and sea level annual maxima driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Future compound flooding risks are projected to be primarily driven by mean sea level rise and secondarily by increased mean river discharge.
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Document type: Research paper
What to expect from La Niña
The document describes La Niña as the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, characterized by the movement of cold water to the central and eastern Pacific surface. For 2024, there is an 85% chance of a transition to neutral conditions between April and June, and a 60% chance of La Niña developing by June to August. The text highlights that multi-year La Niña events are increasing in frequency, with five of the last ten occurring in the past 25 years. While La Niña temporarily lowers global average surface temperatures by about 0.1C, it does not offset human-caused warming; recent La Niña years have been among the top 10 hottest years ever. Regional impacts include drier conditions in East Africa and the southern US, and wetter conditions in Southeast Asia, India, and northern South America, affecting various crop yields and increasing the risk of floods and droughts.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments for Bekwai Municipal Assembly
The report identifies agriculture as the most vulnerable sector in the Bekwai Municipality, primarily due to a high dependence on rainfed farming and exposure to flooding from the Odo River. Historical data from 1980-2020 shows an increasing trend in temperatures and wet spell durations. Future projections through 2100 suggest rising annual rainfall (reaching 1,500 mm by 2080) and increased daytime and nighttime temperatures, which are expected to exacerbate flooding, water scarcity, and the prevalence of tropical diseases. The assessment highlights that rural communities are less resilient than urban centers due to a lack of critical functions like health care and disaster evacuation points. Recommended adaptation measures include the introduction of drought-resistant seeds, modern solar-powered irrigation, and improved climate information services.
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Document type: Report
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Kassena Nankana Municipal Assembly
The assessment identifies agriculture as the most vulnerable sector in the Kassena Nankana Municipality, with high sensitivity in zonal councils like Biu and Doba due to the prevalence of mud-brick housing and flood-prone farmlands. While the quantitative Vulnerability Index suggests that adaptive capacity currently outweighs exposure and sensitivity across all zonal councils, Naaga is identified as the most vulnerable area due to its low adaptive capacity and high exposure to the White Volta River. Future projections indicate rising temperatures and irregular rainfall, which are expected to reduce maize and soybean yields and increase the prevalence of climate-sensitive diseases like cerebrospinal meningitis.
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Document type: Report
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the Kintampo Municipal Assembly
The report provides a comprehensive vulnerability assessment for the Kintampo Municipal Assembly, identifying agriculture as the most sensitive sector. It combines historical climate data (1980–2020) with future projections to 2100, highlighting increasing temperatures and variable rainfall. The study identifies specific community-level vulnerabilities, with Busuama being the most vulnerable and Kintampo the least, and recommends targeted adaptation strategies including conservation agriculture, irrigation, and gender-responsive initiatives.
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Document type: Report
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for New Juaben South Municipal Assembly
The report assesses climate vulnerability in the New Juaben South Municipality (NJSM), Ghana, identifying flooding as the primary climate hazard. Using a Livelihood Vulnerability Indicator (LVI) approach, it finds that while all zonal councils are vulnerable, Srodae is the most exposed to floods and Anlo Town is the most sensitive due to poor infrastructure. Projections to 2100 indicate increasing annual rainfall and temperatures, which will likely exacerbate flash floods, droughts, and heat stress. The report highlights gender disparities, noting that women are more likely to live in flood-prone areas and have less access to social support networks and credit than men. Recommended adaptation measures include improving drainage systems, implementing early warning systems, and promoting climate-smart agriculture.
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Document type: Report
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the Bibiani-Anhwiaso-Bekwai Municipal Assembly
The assessment identifies the Awaso Zonal Council as the most vulnerable area in the Bibiani-Anhwiaso-Bekwai municipality due to high exposure to bushfires and droughts, combined with high sensitivity in agriculture and infrastructure. Agriculture and human health are ranked as the most vulnerable sectors, with rainfall variability and rising temperatures threatening crop yields and increasing disease prevalence. Projections indicate annual rainfall will increase to 1678 mm by 2050, while both day and night temperatures are expected to rise by 1°C by mid-century. The report recommends policy interventions including livelihood diversification, the construction of feeder roads, the implementation of early warning systems, and the promotion of climate-smart agriculture and irrigation.
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Document type: Report
Climate Vulnerability Assessment for the Cape Coast Municipal Assembly (CCMA)
The assessment identifies the Cape Coast Municipal Assembly (CCMA) as highly vulnerable to climate change, particularly through flooding and rising temperatures. Agriculture is ranked as the most vulnerable sector due to a total reliance on rainfed systems. The report highlights that coastal communities face severe risks from sea-level rise and erosion, exacerbated by illegal sand mining. Future projections indicate steadily rising temperatures and variable rainfall, necessitating adaptation strategies such as nature-based solutions, improved drainage, and the introduction of irrigation.
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Document type: Report
Wettest Seasons in U.S. Regions
Climate Central analyzed precipitation data from 1969-70 to 2022-23 for the contiguous U.S., finding that while some regions have balanced seasonal rainfall, others rely heavily on a single season. Specifically, the West and Northwest are dominated by winter precipitation, while the Plains and Upper Midwest rely on summer rainfall. Climate change is altering these patterns, with a general increase in precipitation east of the Rockies and a decrease to the west. Warmer temperatures are increasing atmospheric moisture—approximately 10% more since 1970—which enhances extremes such as heavy downpours and intensifying droughts.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Building the resilience of Togo's national health system and vulnerable communities to climate sensitive diseases
The document outlines a five-year, EUR 55.8 million project to transition Togo's health system to a climate-resilient model. It focuses on the northern regions of Centrale, Kara, and Savanes, where morbidity from malaria and diarrhoea is highest. The project aims to integrate meteorological data into health surveillance, establish early warning systems, upgrade health infrastructure to be heat-resistant, and improve community WASH services. It targets 273,224 direct beneficiaries and seeks EUR 37.6 million in GCF grants.
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Document type: Report
Fewer Frigid Nights
Since 1970, 204 U.S. locations have seen a decrease in annual freezing nights, with an average reduction of 13 nights. Warming has been most rapid during winter and at night, with nighttime lows warming 25% faster than daytime highs since 1900. Projections indicate that by 2040, every state in the contiguous U.S. and Alaska will experience a drop in below-freezing days under a medium-high emissions scenario, with 23 states potentially seeing three to four fewer weeks of freezing days by mid-century. While this may reduce heating costs and cold-exposure risks, it threatens snow-fed water supplies, winter recreation economies, and fruit crop yields.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Climate Change Sittaung River
The study uses a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model and five CMIP5 GCMs to project climate impacts on the Sittaung river basin. Findings indicate that while increased riverine flows will likely benefit domestic water supply and hydropower generation, unmet agricultural demands for food production are expected to increase.
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Document type: Research paper
Chilling Prospects 2022: Urban land-use and heat analysis in major cities of the Critical 9 countries
The analysis examines how the expansion of built-up areas at the expense of natural heat sinks like green spaces and water bodies increases urban heat risks in major cities across the Critical 9 countries. Using Copernicus Land Monitoring Service data and the IPCC's SSP1-1.9 scenario, the report details specific land-use losses in cities such as Shanghai, Karachi, and Dhaka, linking these changes to increased vulnerability to dangerous heat days (above 35°C) and rising energy demands for active cooling.
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Document type: Report
Plan Director de la Cuenca del Río Tupiza
The 2021 Plan Director de la Cuenca del Río Tupiza (PDCRT) updates the 2018 plan to integrate climate change projections, sustainable sanitation, and robust decision-making tools. The plan identifies critical vulnerabilities in water access, irrigation, and mining impacts, proposing eight strategic lines of action with a total estimated investment of BOB 160,472,859 over a five-year horizon. Key findings include a projected reduction in annual river flow of up to 38% by 2050 under RCP 8.5 and significant gaps in sanitation, where 58% of inhabitants in 20 of the 24 studied communities practice open defecation.
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Document type: Executive summary