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On 06 September 2018, the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) and the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) convened a meeting in Windhoek, Namibia, to review the progress of the APRM Sensitisation Project in Namibia (ASPIN). The meeting focused on the development of a civil society submission to the APRM, following Namibia's accession to the mechanism in January 2017. Participants discussed 11 specific draft submissions covering governance, social, and environmental issues, and planned a validation workshop for late October 2018.

The paper explores how African agency manifests in interactions with China, arguing that it is not merely a binary of power but a complex dynamic involving state, institutional, and non-state actors. Through case studies of the AU and the BRI, the authors analyze how structural reforms, debt sustainability, and local realities shape the bargaining power of African nations. While China holds significant structural power, the document suggests that African agency is exercised through proactive affirmation of partnerships, strategic non-compliance, and the influence of on-the-ground realities like security risks and wildlife trafficking.

The document analyzes the volatile political climate in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) ahead of the December 2018 elections. It highlights the systematic elimination of political competition by the ruling party, deep distrust in the electoral commission (CENI), and the persistent insecurity in the eastern DRC. The authors present four scenarios: a worst-case scenario of election cancellation leading to violence, a win by the ruling party's candidate Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary (either as a puppet for Joseph Kabila or as an independent leader), a contested win legitimized by a biased judiciary, and a popular opposition victory. The paper emphasizes that the DRC's vast mineral wealth, particularly cobalt, sustains international interest but also fuels internal instability and patronage networks. It recommends that SADC and the AU maintain pressure on the government to ensure a credible election and prepare for potential wide-scale violence.

The document examines the 'EU migration crisis' and the resulting 'containment compact,' where the EU provides aid and arms to African states to restrict migration. It argues that this approach ignores primary drivers: Africa's youth bulge and income inequality. While the EU faces labour shortages and Africa has a surplus, the current policy focuses on border fortification rather than pragmatic labour mobility agreements. The author contends that without a 'migration safety valve,' both regions face potential political and economic backlash.

The report examines the economic landscape of SADC, noting a decline in intra-regional trade and investment since 2013 and a persistent overdependence on primary commodities. It identifies key barriers to integration, including non-tariff barriers, infrastructure gaps in energy and transport, and a lack of policy harmonisation. While the report highlights the potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA), it argues that sustainable growth requires a shift toward regional sector complementarity and the creation of regional value chains (RVCs) to reduce vulnerability to global commodity price shocks.

This scoping study examines the growth of the digital economy and digital trade, analyzing how these shifts create both opportunities for economic leapfrogging and risks of a widening 'digital divide' for developing and emerging economies.

This report evaluates the captive predator breeding industry in South Africa, challenging claims regarding its economic significance and conservation value while highlighting risks related to the illicit wildlife trade and local labor displacement.

The document outlines findings from a multi-year research project on FDI in SADC, highlighting that while FDI can catalyze regional trade and economic development, its success is heavily dependent on governance, policy certainty, and the transition from donor-led to private-sector-led investment. It examines the FDI regimes of South Africa, Namibia, Angola, Mozambique, and Tanzania, alongside specific analyses of the energy, transport, and agricultural sectors (specifically macadamia nuts and soybeans). The briefing concludes that regional value chains in SADC remain limited and that the primary barriers to deeper integration are trade facilitation and the lack of private sector opportunities rather than a lack of financing.

The document examines how digitalization is restructuring global value chains and the risks it poses to developing nations, such as increased technological divides and value capture by advanced economies. It contrasts the digital industrial policies of the EU (market-friendly) and China (interventionist) to propose a dual-track policy framework for developing countries: 'enabling markets' (focusing on infrastructure, ecosystems, and mitigating disbenefits) and 'digital catch-up' (focusing on technology linkage, learning, and economic leverage). The authors highlight specific instruments like payment interoperability, data localization, and fiscal incentives, while warning of implementation hurdles such as ministerial silos and international trade agreement constraints.

The paper argues that blurring the lines between migration governance and health security risks undermining public health in Southern Africa. It warns that securitisation agendas in the Global Compact on Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration and the Global Compact on Refugees may lead to increased irregular migration and deter migrants from accessing healthcare due to fear of deportation. Furthermore, the author cautions that health status could be co-opted as a tool for border restriction, potentially reviving stigmatising travel restrictions similar to those seen during the early HIV epidemic.

The document examines the increase in sovereign debt across Africa, specifically focusing on the role of Chinese financing and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It challenges the notion that China is 'trapping' African nations, noting that African governments actively seek these loans to address an annual infrastructure financing deficit of approximately $93 billion and to compensate for declining commodity prices. However, it highlights significant risks, including the opacity of loan terms, the potential for corruption, and the impact of debt servicing on public spending. The author recommends greater transparency from both China and African governments, and a stronger link between debt-funded projects and concrete local benefits.

The South African Institute of International Affairs argues that BRICS nations must move beyond treating women's issues as a separate silo and instead integrate gender inclusivity into core development goals. The text highlights significant wage gaps in Brazil and South Africa and notes that while South Africa leads the bloc in gender parity rankings, other members lag behind. It specifically calls for gender-sensitive approaches to automation in the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the inclusion of women in the new BRICS peacekeeping working group to increase the longevity of peace initiatives, and the recognition of women's roles as primary caregivers in the success of vaccine dissemination campaigns.

The research paper examines South Africa's transition from recognizing the Republic of China (ROC) to the People's Republic of China (PRC) under President Nelson Mandela. It details an initial, unsuccessful attempt at 'dual recognition' driven by Taiwan's economic ties and Mandela's personal loyalty, as well as his uncertainty regarding the PRC's longevity. The eventual switch in November 1996 was precipitated by internal pressure from the ANC's National Executive Committee and the Department of Foreign Affairs, combined with 'hardball' tactics from the PRC, including threats to restrict access to Hong Kong and rescind Most Favoured Nation trading status.

On 25 July 2018, the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) and the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) convened a meeting in Windhoek, Namibia, to engage civil society in the APRM process. Participants identified 17 primary governance challenges, which were subsequently condensed into a thematic framework for a written submission. Key areas of concern include executive dominance, land access, youth unemployment, institutionalised corruption, and a lack of policy coherence. The IPPR is tasked with driving the drafting process, with a deadline for initial contributions set for the end of August 2018.

The document examines how the BRICS nations can better support African development priorities, specifically industrialisation and infrastructure. It highlights the role of South Africa in leveraging the BRICS forum for continental interests and discusses the potential of the New Development Bank (NDB). The briefing identifies critical challenges, including rising external debt, lack of transparency in lending, and unequal trade patterns where Africa primarily exports primary commodities. It recommends the creation of a dedicated BRICS–Africa strategy, a specialized BRICS unit within the African Union Commission (AUC), and improved coordination between bilateral BRICS initiatives and the AU's Agenda 2063.

The document argues that the SADC Regional Development Fund (RDF) should prioritise early-stage project preparation and national capacity building over direct project financing to address a critical dearth of bankable projects. It highlights that the region's infrastructure deficit is driven by bottlenecks in project definition and conceptualisation, often exacerbated by political agendas and a lack of technical expertise. The authors recommend incorporating the existing SADC Project Preparation and Development Fund (PPDF) into the RDF to leverage existing structures and shifting from reliance on international cooperating partner (ICP) funding to member state contributions to ensure regional ownership and sustainability.

The paper concludes that a regional SACU stabilisation fund is inappropriate and infeasible because member states experience different degrees of revenue volatility driven by different sources. While Lesotho, Namibia, and eSwatini are primarily affected by the SACU revenue pool's distribution formula, Botswana is driven by commodity revenues and South Africa by its internal tax base. The author argues that the core issue for the BLNS countries is the current revenue-sharing formula, which links their revenues to South African import patterns. The paper recommends that member states focus on revising the revenue-sharing formula or implementing country-level fiscal tools—such as medium-term expenditure frameworks, fiscal rules, or national stabilisation funds—rather than pursuing a regional fund.

The document examines the role of marine protected areas (MPAs) in South Africa, highlighting that current protection levels (0.4% of the mainland EEZ) are insufficient to mitigate anthropogenic threats and climate change. It advocates for reaching a 10% protection target by 2020 and supporting a '30% by 2030' goal. The brief details how MPAs provide climate mitigation services, such as carbon sequestration in seagrasses and coastal buffering via mangroves and coral reefs, while supporting fisheries through the 'spillover effect'. It identifies significant challenges, including conflicts with oil and gas exploration—which occupies over 90% of the continental EEZ—and the need to resolve customary rights and restitution claims for displaced communities.

The EU-SADC EPA provides Lesotho with tariff preferences and liberal rules of origin for exports to the EU, supported by a development envelope of EUR 6 million. However, Lesotho currently exports almost no agricultural or agro-processed products to European markets due to low production volumes, inability to meet stringent EU and South African standards, and fragmented coordination between government and donors. While aquaculture (freshwater trout) is growing, other produce like apples, peaches, and tomatoes remains local or limited to South African markets. The document recommends that Lesotho integrate into South African value chains as a stepping stone to the EU and focus development efforts on a few specific products to achieve the necessary scale.

The document evaluates women's empowerment in BRICS countries using World Economic Forum criteria, highlighting significant disparities in political representation, economic opportunity, and health. It argues against treating gender as a standalone issue, suggesting instead that the BRICS Gender and Women’s Forum should mainstream gender perspectives into the bloc's core agendas, including technological disruption, UN-aligned peacekeeping, and vaccine research platforms.