THE ‘CONTAINMENT COMPACT’: THE EU MIGRATION ‘CRISIS’ AND AFRICAN COMPLICITY IN MIGRATION MANAGEMENT

The document examines the 'EU migration crisis' and the resulting 'containment compact,' where the EU provides aid and arms to African states to restrict migration. It argues that this approach ignores primary drivers: Africa's youth bulge and income inequality. While the EU faces labour shortages and Africa has a surplus, the current policy focuses on border fortification rather than pragmatic labour mobility agreements. The author contends that without a 'migration safety valve,' both regions face potential political and economic backlash.

• Africa's population is projected to grow significantly, with its share of the global population expected to increase from 17% in 2017 to 40% by 2100, while Europe's population is projected to decline by 13% in the same period.
• There is a significant global labour imbalance: by 2050, sub-Saharan Africa's labour force will be the largest in the world, while the EU and other regions like China and Eastern Europe face declining working populations.
• The majority of African migration is intra-continental, with approximately 80% of Africans moving within sub-Saharan Africa, often within regional economic communities (RECs) like ECOWAS and the EAC.
• The 'containment compact' consists of EU strategies to restrict African mobility through three main dimensions: fortifying borders, using development aid to remove incentives to migrate, and selecting a small number of candidates for entry into Europe.
• EU funding via the Emergency Trust Fund for Africa (EUTF) is often tied to migration management rather than long-term development, with some bilateral agreements conditioning aid on the readmission of migrants.
• African economic growth is characterized as 'jobless growth' driven by mechanised primary commodities, meaning it is unlikely to provide sufficient employment for the growing youth population regardless of GDP increases.
• The Global Compact on Migration (GCM) is unlikely to significantly change African migration governance because it is non-binding and saw limited involvement from African states and civil society during its drafting.

APA

KIHATO, C. W. (2018). THE ‘CONTAINMENT COMPACT’: THE EU MIGRATION ‘CRISIS’ AND AFRICAN COMPLICITY IN MIGRATION MANAGEMENT. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Occasional-Paper-288.pdf

Chicago

KIHATO, CAROLINE WANJIKU. THE ‘CONTAINMENT COMPACT’: THE EU MIGRATION ‘CRISIS’ AND AFRICAN COMPLICITY IN MIGRATION MANAGEMENT. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2018. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Occasional-Paper-288.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=KIHATO |first1=CAROLINE WANJIKU |title=THE ‘CONTAINMENT COMPACT’: THE EU MIGRATION ‘CRISIS’ AND AFRICAN COMPLICITY IN MIGRATION MANAGEMENT |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=September 2018 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Occasional-Paper-288.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kihato2018containment, author = {KIHATO, CAROLINE WANJIKU}, title = {{THE ‘CONTAINMENT COMPACT’: THE EU MIGRATION ‘CRISIS’ AND AFRICAN COMPLICITY IN MIGRATION MANAGEMENT}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2018}, month = sep, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Occasional-Paper-288.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }