South Africa’s China Choice Revisited

The research paper examines South Africa's transition from recognizing the Republic of China (ROC) to the People's Republic of China (PRC) under President Nelson Mandela. It details an initial, unsuccessful attempt at 'dual recognition' driven by Taiwan's economic ties and Mandela's personal loyalty, as well as his uncertainty regarding the PRC's longevity. The eventual switch in November 1996 was precipitated by internal pressure from the ANC's National Executive Committee and the Department of Foreign Affairs, combined with 'hardball' tactics from the PRC, including threats to restrict access to Hong Kong and rescind Most Favoured Nation trading status.

• Following his 1994 inauguration, President Mandela initially pursued an unprecedented strategy of 'dual recognition' to maintain ties with both the Republic of China (ROC) and the People's Republic of China (PRC). This approach was motivated by the ROC being South Africa's sixth largest trading partner, a major investor, and a donor of 10 million USD to the 1993 ANC election campaign.
• Mandela's hesitation to recognize the PRC was partly influenced by the collapse of the Soviet Union, which created uncertainty about the PRC's long-term stability.
• The decision to switch recognition to the PRC was driven by internal pressure from the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) and the ANC's National Executive Committee (NEC), which viewed recognition of a permanent UN Security Council member as essential for South Africa to be an 'international player.'
• The PRC exerted significant external pressure to force the switch, threatening to restrict South African access to Hong Kong's airspace and markets after July 1997 and suggesting the rescission of Pretoria's Most Favoured Nation trading status.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2018). South Africa’s China Choice Revisited. https://saiia.org.za/research/south-africas-china-choice-revisited/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. South Africa’s China Choice Revisited. 2018. https://saiia.org.za/research/south-africas-china-choice-revisited/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=South Africa’s China Choice Revisited |date=25 July 2018 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/south-africas-china-choice-revisited/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2018south, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{South Africa’s China Choice Revisited}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2018}, month = jul, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/south-africas-china-choice-revisited/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }