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The research examines how NATO's airstrike-only intervention during the Kosovo War affected Albanian civilian victimization. Using a novel dataset (Kosovo Airstrike Locator) and the Kosovo Memory Book, the author finds that while the overall introduction of airstrikes coincided with a dramatic increase in civilian deaths, recently struck municipalities actually saw a decrease in expected victimization. However, this direct effect was offset by indirect consequences: the shift in strike strategy to target military units intensified the violence following battles and KLA soldier deaths, and shifted the geography of victimization toward more populous areas and those with lower Albanian population percentages. The author concludes that airstrike-only interventions can intensify conflict and increase civilian vulnerability, suggesting they should not be the primary tool for protecting civilians without a credible ground-force threat.

The study finds that higher levels of women's political empowerment are positively associated with the success of nonviolent resistance campaigns and negatively associated with the success of violent campaigns. Using the NAVCO 2.1 dataset and the Women's Political Empowerment Index (WPEI), the author argues that gender equality shapes both the societal norms regarding the legitimacy of violence and the opportunity structures for recruitment. While the results for nonviolent campaigns are robust across various specifications, the findings for violent campaigns are more sensitive to how time dependency is handled. The author concludes that gender-related dynamics are critical structural elements in understanding the outcomes of collective action.

The report examines how AI, as a dual-use technology, is being integrated into military capabilities and regulated through export controls in China, the US, and the EU. It highlights China's 'military-civil fusion' strategy and the US's efforts to maintain technological leadership, while the EU focuses on ethical standards and 'trustworthy AI'. The authors argue that the intangibility of software makes trade controls difficult and that the competition for AI dominance creates a 'dual-use security dilemma' that could destabilize strategic relations and nuclear deterrence.

Based on a July 2022 survey of approximately 1,200 households in Cox’s Bazar, the report finds that while public school attendance in the Bangladeshi host community increased after the pandemic, there was a dramatic 30% drop in attendance at NGO learning centres for female Rohingya youths over age 12. The decline for refugee girls is attributed to family obligations, marriage, and a deteriorating security situation in the camps, whereas male refugee dropouts are more frequently linked to the need for income-generating work.

The research analyzes external voting data from parliamentary and presidential elections for migrants from Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, and Romania living in 17 European host countries. It employs the Pedersen index to measure the discrepancy between diaspora and domestic voting results and uses V-dem Party database dimensions to assess ideological differences. The findings generally indicate that diaspora voters are more liberal, less populist, and more economically right-wing than domestic voters, though their voting trends often mirror the dynamics of their countries of origin. The report also notes that the size and influence of these voting blocs are increasing, with the Bulgarian diaspora having the highest relative impact on national election results.

The document examines Redeyef, a marginalised Tunisian mining town where economic decline and corruption have made migration a primary strategy for hope. While most young adults aspire to migrate and many have ties abroad, regular pathways are increasingly difficult, leading to a rise in risky irregular migration. Despite strong transnational ties, remittances are limited to a minority of households and have not significantly contributed to the town's collective development.

The study examines the relationship between political institutions, support coalition identity, and deforestation. Using satellite data and expert-coded regime data, the author finds that while democratization is generally associated with forest loss, this effect is moderated by the support base: democracies with rural supporters are associated with reforestation. Conversely, regimes relying on urban supporters are linked to higher-than-average forest loss globally and in the tropics, potentially reflecting the consumption demands of urbanizing populations.

The brief examines gender representation among individuals invited to brief the UN Security Council between 2015 and 2021. While the period remained male-dominated overall, the proportion of male briefers fell from 77% in 2015 to 52% in 2021. Women are more frequently represented when briefing as members of civil society organizations (CSOs) or government institutions, whereas men dominate the UN system and other multilateral organizations. The authors note a positive trend in the consultation of women's CSOs, which have moved from being primarily invited to thematic Women, Peace and Security (WPS) debates to briefing on a wider array of country-specific issues, including Afghanistan, Colombia, the DRC, Libya, and Mali.

The document challenges the common assumption that unemployment, particularly among youth, increases the likelihood of political violence and protests. By reviewing global research and analyzing survey data from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the author finds that unemployed individuals are not more likely to support political violence or participate in demonstrations than those who are employed. Instead, the brief identifies other work-related factors—such as ambiguous employment status, part-time work, and job dissatisfaction—as stronger predictors of political activity. The author suggests that the unemployed may be less active due to a lack of resources, social stigmatization, or low interest in politics.

The report analyzes global conflict dynamics, noting that state-based conflicts reached historic highs in 2019 and 2020. It highlights the significant role of the Islamic State (IS) in driving conflict numbers and the rise of non-state conflicts, particularly in the Americas and Africa. The document also tracks the declining success rates of non-violent resistance campaigns and the prevalence of conflict-related sexual violence, which is most frequently recorded in Africa.

The analysis of UN votes, regional organization statements, and public diplomatic interactions from February 20 to June 19, 2022, indicates that no global pro-Russia or pro-authoritarian bloc has emerged. Instead, most states in the Global South prefer to remain non-aligned, although there is evidence of diplomatic competition for influence between Russia and Western powers, particularly in Asia.

The paper examines the 'socio-legal ripple effects' of the July 22, 2011 attacks in Norway, arguing that the state primarily utilized ordinary legal institutions and welfare schemes rather than ad-hoc mechanisms to manage the aftermath. It analyzes how this reliance on ordinary law shaped the allocation of financial resources, the definition of 'victim' identity, and the judicialization of conflicts surrounding national memorials and the demolition of the Y-block in the Government Quarter.

The document argues that the war in Ukraine is causing a diversion of development aid from the Global South. This occurs through three primary mechanisms: the use of the OECD '12-month-rule' to count domestic refugee-hosting costs as ODA, the reallocation of national budgets toward increased military and defence spending, and the anticipation of massive post-war reconstruction costs in Ukraine. The authors warn that this shift undermines the quality and extent of aid, potentially leaving root causes of instability in vulnerable regions unaddressed.

The document assesses Norway's cautious and ambiguous approach to regulating lethal autonomous weapon systems (LAWS) and military AI. It highlights the tension between Norway's NATO commitments and the need for arms control diplomacy in the face of technological advancements by Russia and China. The brief identifies significant legal and ethical challenges, such as the lack of accountability for AI-driven actions and the risks associated with dual-use technologies, while noting that definitional ambiguities and the consensus-based structure of the UN CCW have hindered international regulatory progress.

The MAPS survey's first wave collected data from 12,052 respondents across 16 regions in Colombia known as PDETs. The data collection was split into two segments: Segment 1 (January 2019) in Arauca and Tolima, and Segment 2 (October-November 2019) across the remaining 14 regions. The survey utilized a multi-stage sampling process focusing on municipal capitals (cabeceras) and condensed rural settlements (centros poblados), while excluding rural dispersed populations. To ensure representativity, the authors developed unified sample weights (FEX CALIB TOTAL) and post-stratification weights (FEX CALIB POST) to harmonize the different sampling schemes used by the two survey firms involved.

The document examines the intersection of power-sharing institutions and gender equality, noting that while power-sharing is a common tool for peacebuilding, it is often 'gender blind'. It argues that consociational models focusing on ethno-national identity can risk embedding patriarchal attitudes or sacrificing women's claims for equality to maintain communal unity. However, the authors suggest that because power-sharing already utilizes group proportions and quotas, it provides a 'natural environment' for securing gender-based quotas. The briefing highlights that power-sharing agreements are seven times more likely to have gender quotas than those without such provisions.

The study finds that while inclusive power-sharing arrangements positively affect the proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments, they do not statistically increase women's empowerment in civil society, including their political participation, civil liberties, and civil society engagement. Using a country-year fixed effects model for 180 countries, the author argues that such institutions often provide an 'illusion of inclusion' by focusing on elite-level representation while failing to address grassroots gender inequalities.

The authors contend that the transition to renewable energy technologies, such as wind turbines and solar panels, relies on destructive mineral extraction that mirrors the harmful patterns of the fossil fuel era. Through initiatives like the WINDPLAN and Green Curses and Violent Conflicts projects, the researchers examine socio-environmental conflicts and protests against renewable projects in Norway, Uganda, Chile, and Bolivia. They argue that energy justice must move beyond simply increasing energy access to addressing the imbalances and contestations caused by the green transition's global value chain.

The document analyzes the drivers of protests against pandemic restrictions across Europe, Germany, and the US. It finds that protest intensity is influenced by the perceived asynchronicity between mortality rates and policy stringency, levels of trust in government, and political polarization. In Europe, higher trust and lower civil liberties correlate with fewer protests. In Germany, districts with lower support for mainstream parties saw more protests, particularly in the East. In the US, protest intensity was higher in Democratic-governed states, driven both by stricter measures and political polarization.

The document argues that women's political representation is vital for the durability of peace, as it can lead to increased social welfare spending and improved perceptions of governance. It highlights that while global representation in national parliaments slightly increased to 25.5% by January 2021, women still face systemic barriers including poverty, patriarchal stereotypes, and violence. The briefing suggests that international bodies should implement gender quotas, establish participation benchmarks for 'free and fair' elections, and ensure women's rights are guaranteed in peace agreements.