Are We Seeing a Global Geopolitical Realignment?

The analysis of UN votes, regional organization statements, and public diplomatic interactions from February 20 to June 19, 2022, indicates that no global pro-Russia or pro-authoritarian bloc has emerged. Instead, most states in the Global South prefer to remain non-aligned, although there is evidence of diplomatic competition for influence between Russia and Western powers, particularly in Asia.

• The majority of states in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean prefer to remain non-aligned and avoid taking sides in the conflict.
• There is no evidence of a new global pro-Russia or pro-authoritarian bloc; the few states that consistently voted with Russia in the UN General Assembly (Belarus, Eritrea, North Korea, and Syria) already had longstanding ties to Russia prior to the 2022 invasion.
• Diplomatic competition for influence between Russia and the US or European partners is evident in the Global South, with this competition appearing more pronounced in Asia than in Africa based on public diplomatic interactions.
• Regional organizations showed varying levels of antipathy toward Russia; while seven explicitly named Russia as the aggressor, no Asian regional organization did so.
• The shift of Mali from European to Russian security partnerships is considered an exceptional case rather than a representative global trend.
• Analysis of 79 states that did not consistently condemn Russia in UN votes shows they are disproportionately non-democratic, with 49% being non-democracies compared to a global average of 39%.

APA

Sandnes, M. (2022). Are We Seeing a Global Geopolitical Realignment? Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/e811ebe4-7520-4aa3-8fa4-9e4657a0acef/Sandnes - Are We Seeing a Global Geopolitical Realignment PRIO Policy Brief 16-2022.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Sandnes, Marie. Are We Seeing a Global Geopolitical Realignment? Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2022. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/e811ebe4-7520-4aa3-8fa4-9e4657a0acef/Sandnes - Are We Seeing a Global Geopolitical Realignment PRIO Policy Brief 16-2022.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Sandnes |first1=Marie |title=Are We Seeing a Global Geopolitical Realignment? |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2022 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/e811ebe4-7520-4aa3-8fa4-9e4657a0acef/Sandnes - Are We Seeing a Global Geopolitical Realignment PRIO Policy Brief 16-2022.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sandnes2022are, author = {Sandnes, Marie}, title = {{Are We Seeing a Global Geopolitical Realignment?}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2022}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/e811ebe4-7520-4aa3-8fa4-9e4657a0acef/Sandnes - Are We Seeing a Global Geopolitical Realignment PRIO Policy Brief 16-2022.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }