External Voting among Central European Migrants Living in Western Europe

The research analyzes external voting data from parliamentary and presidential elections for migrants from Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, and Romania living in 17 European host countries. It employs the Pedersen index to measure the discrepancy between diaspora and domestic voting results and uses V-dem Party database dimensions to assess ideological differences. The findings generally indicate that diaspora voters are more liberal, less populist, and more economically right-wing than domestic voters, though their voting trends often mirror the dynamics of their countries of origin. The report also notes that the size and influence of these voting blocs are increasing, with the Bulgarian diaspora having the highest relative impact on national election results.

• The level of discrepancy between diaspora and domestic voting results varies by country: Czech diasporas show a clear trend of voting increasingly differently from voters in their country of origin, while Lithuanian diasporas became more similar to domestic voters in the 2020 elections.
• Bulgarian, Latvian, and Polish diasporas experienced an initial period of convergence with domestic voting results, followed by a period of increasing discrepancy.
• Romanian diaspora voting results increasingly differed from domestic results between 2008 and 2016, but became slightly more similar in the 2016-2020 period.
• Across most analyzed countries, diaspora voters generally support more liberal and less populist parties than domestic voters, a trend most evident in recent years.
• On cultural dimensions, Lithuanian, Latvian, and Polish diasporas consistently vote for more progressive parties than domestic voters, whereas Bulgarian diasporas have become more culturally conservative than domestic voters since 2017.
• Most analyzed diasporas prefer economically right-wing parties and limited welfare measures, with the exception of Bulgarian diaspora voters after 2017, who supported left-wing and welfare-oriented parties more than domestic voters.
• Diaspora voters are significantly less likely to support clientelistic parties compared to voters in their country of origin.
• Attitudes toward immigration are split: Bulgarian and Latvian diasporas are more likely to vote for anti-immigrant parties, while Czech, Lithuanian, Polish, and Romanian diasporas are more likely to vote for pro-immigrant parties than domestic voters.
• The relative impact of the diaspora vote on national results is highest for Bulgaria (3.85% of all voters in 2021) and lowest for the Czech Republic (0.12% in 2017).
• The size of voting diasporas has increased over time across all host countries, driven by increased migration and a higher number of electoral commissions.

APA

Kotnarowski, M., Szulecki, K., Burean, T., Erdal, M. B., Iliev, I., Reire, G., Stanley, B., Ulinskaite, J., & Zapletalová, V. (2022). External Voting among Central European Migrants Living in Western Europe. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/0bbb4a4d-a8cf-4cc3-b519-51157813c87d/Kotnarowski et al - External Voting among Central European Migrants Living in Western Europe PRIO Paper 2022.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Kotnarowski, Michał, Kacper Szulecki, Toma Burean, Marta Bivand Erdal, Ivo Iliev, Gunda Reire, Ben Stanley, Jogile Ulinskaite, and Veronika Zapletalová. External Voting among Central European Migrants Living in Western Europe. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2022. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/0bbb4a4d-a8cf-4cc3-b519-51157813c87d/Kotnarowski et al - External Voting among Central European Migrants Living in Western Europe PRIO Paper 2022.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kotnarowski |first1=Michał |last2=Szulecki |first2=Kacper |last3=Burean |first3=Toma |last4=Erdal |first4=Marta Bivand |last5=Iliev |first5=Ivo |last6=Reire |first6=Gunda |last7=Stanley |first7=Ben |last8=Ulinskaite |first8=Jogile |last9=Zapletalová |first9=Veronika |title=External Voting among Central European Migrants Living in Western Europe |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2022 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/0bbb4a4d-a8cf-4cc3-b519-51157813c87d/Kotnarowski et al - External Voting among Central European Migrants Living in Western Europe PRIO Paper 2022.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kotnarowski2022external, author = {Kotnarowski, Michał and Szulecki, Kacper and Burean, Toma and Erdal, Marta Bivand and Iliev, Ivo and Reire, Gunda and Stanley, Ben and Ulinskaite, Jogile and Zapletalová, Veronika}, title = {{External Voting among Central European Migrants Living in Western Europe}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2022}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/0bbb4a4d-a8cf-4cc3-b519-51157813c87d/Kotnarowski et al - External Voting among Central European Migrants Living in Western Europe PRIO Paper 2022.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }