The Impact of the Ukraine War on Donor Priorities

The document argues that the war in Ukraine is causing a diversion of development aid from the Global South. This occurs through three primary mechanisms: the use of the OECD '12-month-rule' to count domestic refugee-hosting costs as ODA, the reallocation of national budgets toward increased military and defence spending, and the anticipation of massive post-war reconstruction costs in Ukraine. The authors warn that this shift undermines the quality and extent of aid, potentially leaving root causes of instability in vulnerable regions unaddressed.

• OECD-DAC donors are redirecting Official Development Assistance (ODA) intended for long-term development in the Global South to fund the domestic costs of hosting Ukrainian refugees, utilizing the OECD '12-month-rule'.
• Sweden initially planned to divert approximately $1 billion (18% of its annual aid budget) for refugee costs, though this was later revised to 11% following criticism.
• Increased national defence and military spending in response to the war is limiting the funds available for development assistance, as aid budgets are often the first to be cut to compensate for military increases.
• Germany's response to the war included a pledge to increase defence spending to 2% of economic output, which led to a proposed 12% cut in development aid, although this cut was later scaled down.
• Post-war reconstruction costs for Ukraine are expected to be a significant long-term drain on donor resources, with estimates ranging from $220 billion to $540 billion, or at least $349 billion according to a joint World Bank, European Commission, and Ukrainian government report.
• The trend of providing ODA through loans rather than grants, combined with rising inflation, is exacerbating the debt crisis for recipient states, potentially forcing them to prioritize debt repayment over development investments.

APA

Tank, P., & Strøm-Sedgwick, C. (2022). The Impact of the Ukraine War on Donor Priorities. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/d088a585-38e3-41ca-9999-dd291e9c8303/Strom-Sedgwick and Tank - The Impact of the Ukraine War on Donor Priorities PRIO Policy Brief 17-2022.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Tank, Pinar, and Carina Strøm-Sedgwick. The Impact of the Ukraine War on Donor Priorities. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2022. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/d088a585-38e3-41ca-9999-dd291e9c8303/Strom-Sedgwick and Tank - The Impact of the Ukraine War on Donor Priorities PRIO Policy Brief 17-2022.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Tank |first1=Pinar |last2=Strøm-Sedgwick |first2=Carina |title=The Impact of the Ukraine War on Donor Priorities |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2022 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/d088a585-38e3-41ca-9999-dd291e9c8303/Strom-Sedgwick and Tank - The Impact of the Ukraine War on Donor Priorities PRIO Policy Brief 17-2022.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{tank2022impact, author = {Tank, Pinar and Strøm-Sedgwick, Carina}, title = {{The Impact of the Ukraine War on Donor Priorities}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2022}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/d088a585-38e3-41ca-9999-dd291e9c8303/Strom-Sedgwick and Tank - The Impact of the Ukraine War on Donor Priorities PRIO Policy Brief 17-2022.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }