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763 documents from Peace Research Institute Oslo
Digital Transformations, Inclusion and Confidentiality in Peace Mediation
The document analyzes the role of digital technologies in peace mediation, focusing on how non-governmental Peace Facilitation Organizations (PFOs) integrate 'PeaceTech' and manage digital conflict. It explores the tension between the need for confidentiality in high-level negotiations and the potential for digital tools to increase transparency and inclusion in community-level dialogues. While acknowledging that digital platforms can reach new demographics, the authors argue that technology is not a guarantee of equitable representation and should complement rather than replace traditional mediation.
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Document type: Policy brief
UNDERSTANDING CONTESTED NORMS ON INDONESIA’S DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY
The report examines how Indonesia navigates the rivalry between US-led market-driven digital norms and China's government-centric approach. While Indonesia relies heavily on foreign hardware and cloud services, it leverages its democratic values, the Pancasila ideology, and an independent foreign policy to maintain agency. The study identifies a 'digital norms cycle' in Indonesia, moving from the emergence of norms via foreign 'norm entrepreneurs' to internalization through national frameworks, though it notes significant challenges in digital literacy, budget, and infrastructure.
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Document type: Research paper
The State of Arms Control: Consequences of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
The report finds that the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine has significantly eroded international arms control, leading to the breakdown of key treaties like New START and the CFE Treaty, and the unilateral reduction of compliance by Russia in others. It highlights a trend of 'weaponizing' arms control forums to spread disinformation and a decline in verification mechanisms. However, the authors note that adherence to many international norms remains largely intact and that violations have provoked diplomatic responses that may refocus global attention on the necessity of disarmament.
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Document type: Research paper
NEW publication: From Crisis To Cooperation: Addressing Mediterranean Water Governance Through Coordinated Action by Emine Eminel Sülün – Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
The document highlights the critical need for effective water governance in the Mediterranean to ensure water security and avoid conflict. It notes that current efforts to create a regional framework are hindered by a proliferation of independent initiatives and advocates for context-specific policies based on multi-level governance perspectives.
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Document type: Policy brief
CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT BEYOND THE DIVIDE IN CYPRUS: A CALL FOR A COLLABORATIVE HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE AGENDA TO ADDRESS THE MIGRATION CRISES IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN
The report examines the migration crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean, highlighting the interconnectedness of forced displacement with climate change, energy poverty, water scarcity, and healthcare deficits. It focuses on Cyprus as a primary destination for asylum seekers, detailing the strain on infrastructure in the south and the lack of legal frameworks in the north. The author proposes a bi-communal strategy, including a joint Rapid Response Committee and a reception center in the UN Buffer Zone, to manage these transnational human security threats through cooperation between Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities.
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Document type: Report
KEY WATER CHALLENGES IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN: A CALL FOR REGIONAL COOPERATION
The document examines the critical water scarcity and management challenges facing the Eastern Mediterranean, highlighting the stark disparity in water distribution between the northern and southern/eastern regions. It analyzes the compounding effects of climate change, population growth, and political tensions on water security. The author argues for a shift from supply-based infrastructure to integrated water resource management and hydrodiplomacy to mitigate conflicts and foster regional stability.
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Document type: Policy brief
A new offensive against Al-Shabaab
The policy brief examines the 'stabilisation' phase of Somalia's offensive against Al-Shabaab, highlighting how resource competition among political elites and donors creates coordination failures. It identifies tensions between federal and state governments, donor-driven top-down approaches, and the risks of rushing interim administration formation in liberated areas, recommending a centralised stabilisation fund and a central coordinating body.
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Document type: Policy brief
NEW Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) commentary 48/2023 - For a New Euro-Med Green Deal – Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
The text argues that global decarbonisation requires bold measures and long-term political stability, specifically calling for a coordinated energy transition strategy in the Euro-Mediterranean region to avoid economic loss and energy insecurity.
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Document type: Statement
Green Curses: Renewable Energy and the Potential for Conflict in Africa
The document argues that while Africa's shift toward renewable energy is essential for climate goals and poverty reduction, it risks a "green resource curse" where green energy projects and mineral mining fuel conflict. It identifies three primary conflict trajectories: the establishment of projects (often involving land disputes and "green grabbing"), the mining of critical minerals (linked to weak institutions and rebel financing), and energy production (related to grid access and geopolitical shifts). While most conflicts are local and non-violent, the authors warn of potential for large-scale civil unrest and geopolitical tensions as the global energy balance shifts away from fossil fuels.
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Document type: Policy brief
Scientific Evidence Supports UN Security Council Engagement with Climate Change
The policy brief counters claims by some UN Security Council members that there is insufficient scientific evidence linking climate change to security risks. Drawing on the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), the authors demonstrate that climate hazards contribute to conflict risk and that existing conflict increases vulnerability to climate change. While the current average effect of climate on conflict is modest, the brief asserts that this influence will grow with higher global warming levels. It further explains that misinterpretations of the science often stem from the indirect, context-dependent nature of these links and the condensed wording of high-level IPCC summaries compared to detailed technical chapters.
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Document type: Policy brief
Should the Security Council Engage with Implications of Climate Change? Let’s Look at the Scientific Evidence
The text addresses the controversy within the UN Security Council over the inclusion of climate change on its agenda, noting that while many members support it, others like Russia, India, and China oppose or abstain. It proposes using the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) to provide a scientific basis for the claim that climate change poses a risk to peace and security.
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Document type: Research paper
Conflict Trends in Asia, 1989–2022
The document analyzes conflict patterns in Asia from 1989 to 2022, noting that while state-based battle-related deaths declined in 2022 due to the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan, violence escalated in Myanmar following its 2021 military coup. It details the prevalence of state-based conflicts as the deadliest type in the region, the emergence of interstate tensions between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and the rise of communal non-state violence in Papua New Guinea. The brief also highlights persistent one-sided violence against civilians by both state and non-state actors in Myanmar, Afghanistan, India, and the Philippines.
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Document type: Policy brief
When responding to large-scale crises
The document analyzes how governments in Norway, France, and the UK moved beyond legal enforcement to motivate citizens during COVID-19 lockdowns. It identifies three evolving strategies: using national narratives to legitimize responses, managing public expectations through data and trust to 'lock in' policies, and eventually differentiating duties based on political preferences. The authors argue that civic duties are co-determined by states and citizens, warning that a shift toward differentiated duties could allow privileged groups to avoid the costs of public obligations.
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Document type: Policy brief
China’s Diversifying Interests in the Middle East
China's engagement in the Middle East is fundamentally driven by the need for energy security, as it imports approximately half of its crude oil from the region. To mitigate vulnerabilities, Beijing utilizes the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to invest in infrastructure and digital technology, while balancing diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran. China has recently acted as a mediator in the Saudi-Iran relationship and is expanding its arms trade, offering alternatives to US weapons. Following the escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict, China has shifted its approach to favor Palestine and Arab states, viewing its ties with Israel as increasingly expendable to better align with the Global South.
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Document type: Policy brief
Conflict Trends in Africa, 1989–2022
The document reports that 2022 was the deadliest year for state-based conflicts in Africa since 1989, primarily due to the war in Ethiopia. While non-state conflicts are the most common type of conflict in the region, they have generally been less severe in terms of battle-related deaths than state-based conflicts. The brief also highlights a worrying trend of one-sided violence by governments and a series of military coups in Central and West Africa between 2020 and 2023.
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Document type: Policy brief
Introducing the Mapping Attitudes, Perceptions and Support (MAPS) Dataset on the Colombian Peace Process
The MAPS dataset provides survey data from over 12,000 respondents across 16 'Programs for Development with a Territorial Focus' (PDET) regions in Colombia. Comparing data from 2019 and 2021, the study finds that while overall support for the peace agreement increased over time, perceptions of security deteriorated and satisfaction with the implementation of specific provisions generally declined. The authors argue that the dataset's regional representativity reveals variations in support and trust that are often obscured in nationally-representative surveys.
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Document type: Research paper
Conflict Trends in the Middle East, 1989–2022
The Middle East experienced a significant decline in battle-related deaths in 2022, primarily due to de-escalation in Syria and Yemen. While state-based conflicts remain the deadliest and most common, non-state conflicts proliferated in the 2010s before declining. One-sided violence increased in Iran in 2022 following protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini.
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Document type: Policy brief
Collective Reintegration: Social and Political Advantages for Female Ex-Combatants
Based on a study of 153 interviews in Colombia, Guatemala, and Nepal, the document finds that female ex-combatants who reintegrate collectively are more socially and politically active than those who reintegrate individually. Collective reintegration helps women maintain the progressive gender relations experienced within certain armed groups, providing security, economic support, and childcare that facilitate leadership and political participation. The author notes that the UN Integrated Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration Standards (IDDRS) currently neglect collective reintegration in favor of breaking down command structures, and recommends that the UN explicitly include it as a viable alternative to improve post-conflict gender equality.
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Document type: Policy brief
The Politics of Duties during COVID-19
The document examines the 'politics of lockdown' in Norway, France, and the UK, arguing that the imposition of civic duties was an iterative process of negotiation rather than a simple application of law. While Norway and the UK primarily used existing legislation to enforce restrictions, France utilized a state-of-exception framework. The authors find that compliance relied on 'greater good' arguments and social trust, and that over time, governments shifted from universal mandates to disaggregated, regional, or group-specific duties to maintain public cooperation.
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Document type: Policy brief
Transactional Alliances: The Impact of the Ukraine War on the Middle East
The Ukraine war has accelerated a shift toward transactional alliances in the Middle East, empowering states like Saudi Arabia and Turkey to pursue greater strategic autonomy while weakening others like Egypt. As US influence diminishes and Russia focuses on its war effort, China has expanded its role from an economic power to a diplomatic mediator, exemplified by brokering the March 2023 Saudi-Iran rapprochement. The document also notes that Vladimir Putin's authoritarian leadership style and anti-Western ideological framing resonate with regional strongmen, posing a challenge to the liberal democratic order and the normative foreign policy of states like Norway.
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Document type: Policy brief