Conflict Trends in Asia, 1989–2022

The document analyzes conflict patterns in Asia from 1989 to 2022, noting that while state-based battle-related deaths declined in 2022 due to the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan, violence escalated in Myanmar following its 2021 military coup. It details the prevalence of state-based conflicts as the deadliest type in the region, the emergence of interstate tensions between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and the rise of communal non-state violence in Papua New Guinea. The brief also highlights persistent one-sided violence against civilians by both state and non-state actors in Myanmar, Afghanistan, India, and the Philippines.

• State-based conflicts are the most frequent and lethal type of conflict in Asia. While the number of these conflicts has remained relatively stable over 33 years, 2020 saw a record low of fourteen conflicts, likely due to COVID-19-related ceasefires. In 2022, there were nineteen state-based conflicts across eleven countries, resulting in nearly 4,300 battle-related deaths.
• The Taliban's seizure of government in August 2021 led to a significant decline in battle-related deaths in Afghanistan, meaning the conflict did not qualify as a war for the first time since 2004. However, this decrease in conflict intensity has not improved the quality of life for citizens, particularly women and ethnic or linguistic minorities.
• Following the February 2021 military coup by the Tatmadaw, Myanmar experienced an escalation in violence, with 2022 becoming the most violent year for state-based conflict in the country since 1989. The military government (SAC) faces opposition from Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and the Anti-SAC Coalition.
• Interstate conflicts are becoming rare, but there is a resurgence of tension between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan over an un-demarcated border. In 2022, battle-related deaths in this conflict nearly tripled compared to 2021, and fighting extended into Kyrgyz territory by September 2022, displacing at least 100,000 civilians.
• Non-state conflicts in Asia have decreased in relative global rank, now being second to last behind only Europe. In 2022, the only non-state conflicts in the region occurred in Papua New Guinea, where eight different communal groups have been engaged in violence since 2019.
• One-sided violence against civilians is perpetrated by both state and non-state actors. In Myanmar, the SAC and the anti-SAC National Unity Government both used violence against civilians as a strategy, with an estimated 150 to 200 civilians killed per month in 2022. In India, the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-M) has consistently perpetrated one-sided violence since 2005.

APA

Obermeier, A. M. (2023). Conflict Trends in Asia, 1989–2022. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/83beb5ad-5993-4ad5-b503-8c4eac2d117c/Obermeier - Conflict Trends in Asia 1989-2022 - Conflict Trends 6-2023.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Obermeier, Anna Marie. Conflict Trends in Asia, 1989–2022. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2023. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/83beb5ad-5993-4ad5-b503-8c4eac2d117c/Obermeier - Conflict Trends in Asia 1989-2022 - Conflict Trends 6-2023.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Obermeier |first1=Anna Marie |title=Conflict Trends in Asia, 1989–2022 |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=June 2023 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/83beb5ad-5993-4ad5-b503-8c4eac2d117c/Obermeier - Conflict Trends in Asia 1989-2022 - Conflict Trends 6-2023.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{obermeier2023conflict, author = {Obermeier, Anna Marie}, title = {{Conflict Trends in Asia, 1989–2022}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2023}, month = jun, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/83beb5ad-5993-4ad5-b503-8c4eac2d117c/Obermeier - Conflict Trends in Asia 1989-2022 - Conflict Trends 6-2023.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }