Scientific Evidence Supports UN Security Council Engagement with Climate Change

The policy brief counters claims by some UN Security Council members that there is insufficient scientific evidence linking climate change to security risks. Drawing on the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), the authors demonstrate that climate hazards contribute to conflict risk and that existing conflict increases vulnerability to climate change. While the current average effect of climate on conflict is modest, the brief asserts that this influence will grow with higher global warming levels. It further explains that misinterpretations of the science often stem from the indirect, context-dependent nature of these links and the condensed wording of high-level IPCC summaries compared to detailed technical chapters.

• Climate change-related hazards act as a contributing factor to violent conflict, with specific evidence linking increased temperatures and drought to conflict risk in Africa.
• Violent conflict is a major driver of climate change vulnerability, particularly for populations displaced or resettled internally or across borders.
• While the current average effect of climate on conflict is modest, risks to peace are expected to increase as global warming levels rise, especially in weather-sensitive communities with low resilience.
• Future risks will become more complex as climatic and non-climatic drivers, such as biodiversity loss and violent conflict, interact to create compounding and cascading risks across regions.
• International policy frameworks like the Sustainable Development Goals and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction can benefit peace and security, whereas poorly managed or inequitable climate responses can exacerbate marginalisation and drive violence.
• Misinterpretations of climate-conflict science in the UN Security Council may be caused by the indirect and context-dependent nature of the effects, the fact that climate is often a weaker driver than socioeconomic factors, and the condensed nature of IPCC high-level summaries.

APA

Buhaug, H., de Coning, C., & von Uexkull, N. (2023). Scientific Evidence Supports UN Security Council Engagement with Climate Change. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/95bf696b-b796-485e-bcdf-08b7be845740/Buhaug de Coning and von Uexkull - Scientific Evidence Supports UN Security Council Engagement with Climate Change PRIO Policy Brief 07-2023.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Buhaug, Halvard, Cedric de Coning, and Nina von Uexkull. Scientific Evidence Supports UN Security Council Engagement with Climate Change. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2023. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/95bf696b-b796-485e-bcdf-08b7be845740/Buhaug de Coning and von Uexkull - Scientific Evidence Supports UN Security Council Engagement with Climate Change PRIO Policy Brief 07-2023.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Buhaug |first1=Halvard |last2=de Coning |first2=Cedric |last3=von Uexkull |first3=Nina |title=Scientific Evidence Supports UN Security Council Engagement with Climate Change |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=July 2023 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/95bf696b-b796-485e-bcdf-08b7be845740/Buhaug de Coning and von Uexkull - Scientific Evidence Supports UN Security Council Engagement with Climate Change PRIO Policy Brief 07-2023.pdf?inline=true |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{buhaug2023scientific, author = {Buhaug, Halvard and de Coning, Cedric and von Uexkull, Nina}, title = {{Scientific Evidence Supports UN Security Council Engagement with Climate Change}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2023}, month = jul, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/95bf696b-b796-485e-bcdf-08b7be845740/Buhaug de Coning and von Uexkull - Scientific Evidence Supports UN Security Council Engagement with Climate Change PRIO Policy Brief 07-2023.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }