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The research finds that large youth cohorts significantly increase the risk of political violence primarily in societies with low male secondary education levels. This effect is most pronounced in low and middle-income countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study supports the 'opportunity cost' hypothesis, suggesting that higher education reduces the incentive for young men to join rebel organizations. Conversely, it finds no evidence that rapid educational expansion or low progression ratios between education levels increase conflict risk.

The paper examines the tension between 'risk as uncertainty' and 'risk versus uncertainty' in economic thought. It contrasts Keynes's view that incalculable uncertainty necessitates government intervention with Hayek's argument that the market's price system efficiently manages such uncertainty. The author traces how mid-century economic theory collapsed this distinction, leading to the birth of modern finance and the quantification of risk, a trend challenged by the 2007-2009 global financial crisis.

The report evaluates Burundi's democratic transition from 2005 to 2009. While the 2005 elections ended a decade of civil war and established a power-sharing framework, the ruling CNDD-FDD party has since consolidated power by marginalizing the opposition, repressing civil society, and undermining constitutional checks and balances. The author describes the regime as a 'semi-democracy' and warns that these governance failures, combined with institutional weakness and corruption, could threaten the country's stability ahead of the 2010 elections.

The report assesses the risk of earthquakes, floods, tropical cyclones, landslides, droughts, tsunamis, and civil conflict in the Asia-Pacific region. It employs a semi-quantitative approach to map hazard hotspots and estimate exposed populations, using the latter as a proxy for risk due to data limitations on mortality. The study introduces a 'coping capacity' index to evaluate national institutional ability to manage disasters. Key findings highlight that Bangladesh and the Philippines face the highest overall risk, while the region's high population density in hazard-prone areas exacerbates potential losses. The report also notes a strong correlation between natural disasters and armed conflict, suggesting that improving disaster preparedness can simultaneously mitigate conflict hazards by enhancing state service delivery in marginalized areas.

The document analyzes Burundi's transition from a devastating civil war (1994-2005) to a democratic framework established by the 2005 Constitution. While the 2005 elections were generally seen as free and fair, the subsequent dominance of the CNDD-FDD party has led to a 'semi-democratic' state. The author identifies several critical pitfalls, including the ruling party's reluctance to share power, the repression of political opposition and civil society, and weak state institutional capacity. The paper concludes with recommendations for the government, parliament, and international community to foster a political climate conducive to the 2010 elections and long-term stability.

The document analyzes the 'Vietnam Peace' starting from 1989, attributing it to the Doi Moi reforms and a strategic shift in foreign policy toward 'making friends with everyone'. It examines external peace through Vietnam's integration into ASEAN, APEC, and the WTO, and internal 'civil peace' through the management of regional disparities, leadership succession, and ethnic minority tensions. The author argues that while economic growth and diplomatic reorientation have maintained stability, long-term sustainability depends on the transition toward a more democratic society and the broader stability of the US-Japan-China strategic triangle.

The authors argue that traditional country-level analysis of civil war often fails to capture the local dynamics and actor-specific mechanisms that drive conflict. By utilizing disaggregated data and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), the research in this special issue examines how the specific location of actors, ethnic group configurations, and the organizational characteristics of rebel groups influence the onset, duration, and settlement of civil wars. The document highlights that while micro-level case studies provide internal validity, and macro-level studies provide external validity, an intermediate range of aggregation—focusing on ethnic groups, specific conflict cases, and spatial units—can bridge this gap.

The study finds that new ICTs, particularly internet access, are positively associated with government respect for human rights, whereas older technologies such as television and landline telephones are negatively associated with them. Using a large-N dataset, the authors argue that the internet empowers civil society and raises the costs of state repression, whereas older mass media can be more easily captured by states for control and demobilization. The results suggest that internet access can leverage the effects of autocratic regimes upward, improving human rights outcomes even in non-democratic contexts.

The report examines the relationship between the global al-Qaida network and the Palestinian polity, focusing on the Gaza Strip. It argues that al-Qaida has used an offensive propaganda campaign to criticize Hamas for political moderation and has attempted to establish an operational foothold in the region. While the report finds no hard evidence of a formal al-Qaida organization in the Palestinian territories, it notes the emergence of various salafi-jihadi groups that have engaged in violence against 'non-Islamic' targets, Christians, and foreigners. Hamas has generally responded defensively to these challenges, fearing that radical elements within its own movement may be receptive to al-Qaida's message, especially under the pressure of international isolation.

The report examines the fragmented landscape of peace and reconciliation efforts in Afghanistan during 2008, analyzing the failure of national-level negotiations, the limitations of amnesty programs, and the fragility of local-level truces like those in Musa Qala. It argues that a sustainable political solution requires a comprehensive regional strategy and a credible national reconciliation framework that moves beyond tactical surrenders to address power-sharing and security sector reform.

The document examines over 200 registered migrant organizations from the Horn of Africa in Norway, noting that while many are inactive or focused on local community needs, some engage in peacebuilding through humanitarian aid or advocacy. It identifies that capacity is limited by fragmentation within communities, restrictive laws in countries of origin (such as Ethiopia's Law on Charities and Societies), and security risks in Somalia. The authors recommend that European institutions adopt long-term, coherent policies and avoid rigid 'equitable distribution' funding models that can inadvertently exacerbate clan-based conflicts.

The research finds that civil conflicts last longer when they are located far from the government stronghold, near international borders, or in regions with valuable minerals like gemstones and petroleum. Conversely, higher rebel military capacity is associated with shorter conflict durations. The study concludes that geography significantly shapes the balance of power and the ability of belligerents to sustain warfare.

The document argues that the United States uses private military contractors (PMCs) to bridge the gap between its geopolitical ambitions as a 'global policeman' and the limited resources provided by a skeptical public. It contends that this reliance enables unilateralism, evades public and congressional oversight, and often results in inefficiency and fraud due to poor government management. The author suggests that while the Obama administration began some reforms, systemic improvements in contracting officer training, transparency, and international legal accountability are necessary to manage the inevitable role of PMCs in modern warfare.

The report estimates that the total investment for new housing, renovation, and infrastructure required for a reunited Cyprus would range from €6.3 billion to €8.6 billion, with an average of €7.2 billion over five years. Public sector spending is estimated at €4.3 billion, while private sector spending would be €2.9 billion. The authors identify various financing options, including EU grants, multilateral loans from the EIB and CEB, and borrowing from Greek, Turkish, and local Cypriot banks. Despite these sources, the report forecasts a funding shortfall of approximately €1 billion over the first five years, necessitating bilateral international assistance of €205 million per year. Economically, the reconstruction boom is projected to increase the real GDP growth rate by 3 percentage points, averaging 7.1% in the first five years, and create over 33,000 new jobs.

The authors argue that traditional country-level conflict analysis fails to account for spatial and temporal variations, as conflicts often occur in peripheral regions and are triggered by sudden events. By combining a global logit regression model with a subnational risk index—incorporating population, socioeconomic status, ethno-political exclusion, distance from the capital, and conflict history—the study maps latent conflict risk across twelve Asian countries. The results demonstrate significant internal variation, highlighting high-risk areas in India, Nepal, and the Philippines, while suggesting that irregular regime changes and previous conflict history are powerful predictors of future violence.

The report examines gender mainstreaming in Ethiopia's mine action sector, highlighting the role of historical gender equality movements (such as the TPLF) and the necessity of adapting strategies to diverse regional norms. While women are heavily involved in mine risk education (MRE) and victim assistance, they are entirely absent from technical demining roles. The paper emphasizes that pre-existing women's organizations and a decentralized sector structure both shape the effectiveness of gender-sensitive interventions.

The document examines the concept of 'national ownership' within the context of the 1997 Mine Ban Treaty, arguing that while the treaty mandates state responsibility, the reality is often dominated by international organizations. It proposes a model where national ownership is viewed as a relational process involving the relative strengths of state institutions and civil society, the actual scope of the mine problem, and the strategies of international donors. The author suggests that sustainable ownership is more likely to be achieved by engaging local civil society and indigenous capacities early in the process rather than relying solely on Western-style state-building.

The study finds that conflicts with religious cleavages are significantly more intense than non-religious ones. The effect on duration is ambiguous: religious conflicts are more likely to terminate in their early stages but are harder to end once they have lasted at least two and a half years.

The research finds that the location of natural resources relative to the conflict zone is critical to determining conflict severity. Gemstone mining and hydrocarbon production within a conflict zone are strongly associated with higher total combat deaths, with secessionist conflicts in hydrocarbon-rich regions being the most severe. Conversely, drug cultivation in the conflict zone and hydrocarbon production located outside the conflict zone are associated with lower combat deaths and reduced conflict intensity. The study concludes that resources influence severity by altering the incentives and organizational structures of both rebel groups and the state.

The document argues that existing gender mainstreaming guidelines for mine action, such as those from UNMAS, are primarily designed for stable post-conflict settings and fail to address the dynamics of active conflict. It examines how conflict-specific risks—such as gendered reprisals from insurgents, changes in the division of labor, and barriers to healthcare—impact mine clearance, mine risk education (MRE), and victim assistance. Using Colombia as a case study, the authors emphasize that mine action must be integrated with broader conflict-relief efforts and based on a gender-sensitive analysis of local security risks to avoid endangering the populations it intends to help.