DEADLY COMBAT OVER NATURAL RESOURCES: GEMS, PETROLEUM, DRUGS, AND THE SEVERITY OF ARMED CIVIL CONFLICT

The research finds that the location of natural resources relative to the conflict zone is critical to determining conflict severity. Gemstone mining and hydrocarbon production within a conflict zone are strongly associated with higher total combat deaths, with secessionist conflicts in hydrocarbon-rich regions being the most severe. Conversely, drug cultivation in the conflict zone and hydrocarbon production located outside the conflict zone are associated with lower combat deaths and reduced conflict intensity. The study concludes that resources influence severity by altering the incentives and organizational structures of both rebel groups and the state.

• Gemstone mining within a conflict zone is positively associated with a significant increase in the total number of combat-related deaths, more than doubling the toll. This effect is primarily attributed to the longer duration of such conflicts rather than higher intensity.
• Hydrocarbon production (oil and gas) inside a conflict zone more than doubles the total number of battle-related deaths and is associated with higher conflict intensity. This is particularly severe in secessionist conflicts, where the number of combat deaths more than doubles and intensity triples compared to conflicts over government.
• Drug cultivation (including coca bush, opium poppy, and cannabis) within a conflict zone is associated with fewer total combat deaths and lower conflict intensity.
• Hydrocarbon production located outside the conflict zone, including offshore areas, is related to a decrease in both the total number of combat deaths and the intensity of the conflict.
• The location of resources is the primary driver of their impact; when resource variables are measured as country-level aggregates rather than conflict-level variables, they show no significant effect on conflict severity.
• Other significant factors contributing to conflict severity include the relative strength of the combatants, with the deadliest conflicts occurring when rebel and government forces are of equal strength. Additionally, internationalized conflicts, those starting during the Cold War, and conflicts in mountainous terrain tend to be more severe.

APA

Lujala, P. (2008). DEADLY COMBAT OVER NATURAL RESOURCES: GEMS, PETROLEUM, DRUGS, AND THE SEVERITY OF ARMED CIVIL CONFLICT. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1c6bfe1e-ae79-4b7f-bce0-6d2cafd8a8b5/Deadly Combat over Natural Resources Gems Petroleum Drugs and the Severity of Armed Civil Conflict.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Lujala, Päivi. DEADLY COMBAT OVER NATURAL RESOURCES: GEMS, PETROLEUM, DRUGS, AND THE SEVERITY OF ARMED CIVIL CONFLICT. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2008. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1c6bfe1e-ae79-4b7f-bce0-6d2cafd8a8b5/Deadly Combat over Natural Resources Gems Petroleum Drugs and the Severity of Armed Civil Conflict.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Lujala |first1=Päivi |title=DEADLY COMBAT OVER NATURAL RESOURCES: GEMS, PETROLEUM, DRUGS, AND THE SEVERITY OF ARMED CIVIL CONFLICT |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=October 2008 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1c6bfe1e-ae79-4b7f-bce0-6d2cafd8a8b5/Deadly Combat over Natural Resources Gems Petroleum Drugs and the Severity of Armed Civil Conflict.pdf?inline=true |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lujala2008deadly, author = {Lujala, Päivi}, title = {{DEADLY COMBAT OVER NATURAL RESOURCES: GEMS, PETROLEUM, DRUGS, AND THE SEVERITY OF ARMED CIVIL CONFLICT}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2008}, month = oct, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1c6bfe1e-ae79-4b7f-bce0-6d2cafd8a8b5/Deadly Combat over Natural Resources Gems Petroleum Drugs and the Severity of Armed Civil Conflict.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }