Subnational Variation in Civil Conflict Risk

The authors argue that traditional country-level conflict analysis fails to account for spatial and temporal variations, as conflicts often occur in peripheral regions and are triggered by sudden events. By combining a global logit regression model with a subnational risk index—incorporating population, socioeconomic status, ethno-political exclusion, distance from the capital, and conflict history—the study maps latent conflict risk across twelve Asian countries. The results demonstrate significant internal variation, highlighting high-risk areas in India, Nepal, and the Philippines, while suggesting that irregular regime changes and previous conflict history are powerful predictors of future violence.

• Traditional quantitative assessments of civil conflict are limited because they assume conflicts are distributed uniformly across a country, whereas most intrastate armed conflicts actually occur in the periphery, often far from the capital and along international borders.
• The study's global model identifies that irregular regime changes, such as military coups or assassinations, and ethno-political exclusion of sizable minority populations are significant risk factors for the prevalence of intrastate armed conflict.
• The most powerful predictor of armed intrastate conflict identified in the global regression analysis is the amount of time that has passed since the previous conflict.
• Contrary to some theories, the authors' global model found that natural disasters do not appear to affect the baseline probability of armed conflict.
• Subnational analysis reveals high internal variation in conflict risk within Asian countries; for example, India shows high risk in the northwest and northeast (Kashmir, Assam, Manipur, and Nagaland) and around Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Andhra Pradesh, but lower risk in central areas.
• In Nepal, the highest conflict hazards are predicted in rural border districts, particularly in the southern Terai belt, driven by economic marginalization and the political exclusion of ethnic groups such as the Madhesis.
• In the Philippines, the highest estimated risks are concentrated in Mindanao and the Sulu Archipelago due to poverty, peripheral location, and a history of Muslim separatist conflict, as well as in the mountainous Cordilleras region due to the political exclusion of the Igorots.

APA

Rustad, S. C. A., Buhauga, H., Falch, Å., & Gates, S. (2009). Subnational Variation in Civil Conflict Risk. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/9974caf4-6d8e-47f8-a1e0-29aa031e46af/Subnational Variation in Civil Conflict Risk.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Rustad, Siri Camilla Aas, Halvard Buhauga, Åshild Falch, and Scott Gates. Subnational Variation in Civil Conflict Risk. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2009. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/9974caf4-6d8e-47f8-a1e0-29aa031e46af/Subnational Variation in Civil Conflict Risk.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rustad |first1=Siri Camilla Aas |last2=Buhauga |first2=Halvard |last3=Falch |first3=Åshild |last4=Gates |first4=Scott |title=Subnational Variation in Civil Conflict Risk |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2009 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/9974caf4-6d8e-47f8-a1e0-29aa031e46af/Subnational Variation in Civil Conflict Risk.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rustad2009subnational, author = {Rustad, Siri Camilla Aas and Buhauga, Halvard and Falch, Åshild and Gates, Scott}, title = {{Subnational Variation in Civil Conflict Risk}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2009}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/9974caf4-6d8e-47f8-a1e0-29aa031e46af/Subnational Variation in Civil Conflict Risk.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }