Running on Faith?

The study finds that conflicts with religious cleavages are significantly more intense than non-religious ones. The effect on duration is ambiguous: religious conflicts are more likely to terminate in their early stages but are harder to end once they have lasted at least two and a half years.

• Conflicts characterized by identity-based religious cleavages are significantly more violent than those without such cleavages. Multivariate analysis indicates that religious conflicts are predicted to have a 39.1% to 48.7% increase in annual battle-related deaths compared to non-religious conflicts, ceteris paribus.
• The impact of religious cleavages on conflict duration is time-dependent. In the early phases, religious conflicts are more likely to be terminated; however, after approximately two and a half years, they become less likely to end than non-religious conflicts.
• Religious polarization is a significant predictor of both intensity and duration. Higher levels of religious polarization are associated with increased conflict intensity and a higher likelihood of prolonged conflict.
• Religious fractionalization is associated with higher conflict intensity, contradicting the hypothesis that it would reduce intensity. It does not have a statistically significant effect on conflict duration.
• Religious discrimination tends to prolong religious conflicts. In religious conflicts, higher levels of discrimination are associated with a reduced risk of termination.
• The effect of religious legitimacy (defined as the presence of a state religion) on intensity varies by conflict type. In non-religious conflicts, high religious legitimacy predicts higher intensity, whereas in religious conflicts, it is associated with lower intensity levels.
• Religious legitimacy also has a time-varying effect on duration. It is predicted to increase the risk of termination in the first 234 days of a religious conflict, but it prolongs the conflict after that period.
• Regime type has a non-linear, non-monotonic effect on conflict intensity. The highest intensity levels are expected in slightly authoritarian regimes (Polity score of -2.75), while fully democratic states are predicted to have 52.5% less intense conflicts than fully authoritarian states.
• Conflict history is a strong predictor of intensity, as indicated by a positive and highly significant coefficient for the lagged battle-deaths variable.
• The number of simultaneous conflicts in a country is a strong predictor of overall intensity levels, as multiple conflicts lead to more battles and deaths.

APA

Lindberg, J.-E. (2008). Running on Faith? Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/084c7220-6497-4243-a8e6-afbcb0e6d1a6/Running on Faith - A Quantitative Analysis.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Lindberg, Jo-Eystein. Running on Faith? Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2008. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/084c7220-6497-4243-a8e6-afbcb0e6d1a6/Running on Faith - A Quantitative Analysis.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Lindberg |first1=Jo-Eystein |title=Running on Faith? |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=November 2008 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/084c7220-6497-4243-a8e6-afbcb0e6d1a6/Running on Faith - A Quantitative Analysis.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lindberg2008running, author = {Lindberg, Jo-Eystein}, title = {{Running on Faith?}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2008}, month = nov, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/084c7220-6497-4243-a8e6-afbcb0e6d1a6/Running on Faith - A Quantitative Analysis.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }