Geography, Rebel Capability, and the Duration of Civil Conflict

The research finds that civil conflicts last longer when they are located far from the government stronghold, near international borders, or in regions with valuable minerals like gemstones and petroleum. Conversely, higher rebel military capacity is associated with shorter conflict durations. The study concludes that geography significantly shapes the balance of power and the ability of belligerents to sustain warfare.

• Conflicts located at a greater distance from the capital city tend to last longer, as governments often struggle to project power and maintain authority in peripheral regions.
• Proximity to international borders significantly increases conflict duration, likely due to the availability of safe havens and access to foreign markets or supportive ethnic kin.
• Rebel military capacity is inversely related to conflict duration; conflicts involving stronger rebel groups are more likely to end quickly through victory or negotiated settlements.
• The presence of valuable natural resources in the conflict zone, specifically gemstones and petroleum, is associated with longer conflict durations.
• Contrary to theoretical expectations, the study found no empirical evidence that rough terrain, such as mountains or forests, systematically prolongs the duration of civil conflicts.
• The availability of narcotics (drugs) in the conflict zone did not show a systematic relationship with the duration of the conflict.
• The post-Cold War era is associated with a higher baseline probability of conflict resolution compared to the preceding period.
• Higher democracy scores are associated with longer conflict durations, which the authors attribute to a reluctance among democratic regimes to use massive military force against peripheral separatists.

APA

Buhaug, H., Gates, S., & Lujala, P. (2009). Geography, Rebel Capability, and the Duration of Civil Conflict. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/67b08499-9fdb-42d0-8e2f-afd390be7c66/Geography Rebel Capability and the Duration of Civil Conflict.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Buhaug, Halvard, Scott Gates, and Päivi Lujala. Geography, Rebel Capability, and the Duration of Civil Conflict. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2009. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/67b08499-9fdb-42d0-8e2f-afd390be7c66/Geography Rebel Capability and the Duration of Civil Conflict.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Buhaug |first1=Halvard |last2=Gates |first2=Scott |last3=Lujala |first3=Päivi |title=Geography, Rebel Capability, and the Duration of Civil Conflict |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2009 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/67b08499-9fdb-42d0-8e2f-afd390be7c66/Geography Rebel Capability and the Duration of Civil Conflict.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{buhaug2009geography, author = {Buhaug, Halvard and Gates, Scott and Lujala, Päivi}, title = {{Geography, Rebel Capability, and the Duration of Civil Conflict}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2009}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/67b08499-9fdb-42d0-8e2f-afd390be7c66/Geography Rebel Capability and the Duration of Civil Conflict.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }