Introduction to Special Issue on “Disaggregating Civil War”

The authors argue that traditional country-level analysis of civil war often fails to capture the local dynamics and actor-specific mechanisms that drive conflict. By utilizing disaggregated data and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), the research in this special issue examines how the specific location of actors, ethnic group configurations, and the organizational characteristics of rebel groups influence the onset, duration, and settlement of civil wars. The document highlights that while micro-level case studies provide internal validity, and macro-level studies provide external validity, an intermediate range of aggregation—focusing on ethnic groups, specific conflict cases, and spatial units—can bridge this gap.

• Traditional research on civil war often relies on national-level aggregates, which can lead to 'non-findings' because conflict is typically a local phenomenon occurring in confined areas rather than engulfing entire states.
• The perceived irrelevance of ethnic configurations in causing civil war may be a result of over-aggregation; when analyzed at the level of ethnic groups, there are strong effects of mobilization and exclusion on conflict behavior.
• Geography significantly impacts political violence by affecting the fighting capacity of both governments and non-state organizations, with inhospitable terrain and distance from headquarters making challenges to governments more likely and conflicts longer.
• The characteristics of rebel organizations influence conflict outcomes: larger excluded groups have more resources to extract concessions, while small, cohesive organizations may fight shorter conflicts. Groups that resist in the periphery with limited ability to damage the central government often face long, intractable conflicts.
• Civil wars are more likely to reach a conclusion when rebel organizations possess a legally accepted political wing, suggesting that non-violent avenues and negotiations are more effective for settlement.
• The use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) allows researchers to move beyond the 'intensive/extensive tradeoff' by transforming geographical data into formats suitable for statistical analysis at an intermediate level of aggregation.

APA

Cederman, L.-E., & Gleditsch, K. S. (2009). Introduction to Special Issue on “Disaggregating Civil War”. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/dda210d3-fbb1-4263-877f-c0dad420788a/Introduction to Special Issue on Disaggregating Civil War.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. Introduction to Special Issue on “Disaggregating Civil War”. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2009. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/dda210d3-fbb1-4263-877f-c0dad420788a/Introduction to Special Issue on Disaggregating Civil War.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cederman |first1=Lars-Erik |last2=Gleditsch |first2=Kristian Skrede |title=Introduction to Special Issue on “Disaggregating Civil War” |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=4 February 2009 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/dda210d3-fbb1-4263-877f-c0dad420788a/Introduction to Special Issue on Disaggregating Civil War.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cederman2009introduction, author = {Cederman, Lars-Erik and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede}, title = {{Introduction to Special Issue on “Disaggregating Civil War”}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2009}, month = feb, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/dda210d3-fbb1-4263-877f-c0dad420788a/Introduction to Special Issue on Disaggregating Civil War.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }