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334 documents from NewClimate Institute
Countries start to explain how their climate contributions are fair
The analysis of 163 INDCs reveals that countries frequently use 'small share' of global emissions and per capita emissions as equity indicators for mitigation, while vulnerability is a primary argument for adaptation. However, most equity claims are unsubstantiated or based on internal expertise, with a lack of independent evidence or consideration of the aggregate global impact of these individual approaches.
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Document type: Research paper
Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Scenarios for Major Emitting Countries 2017
The report finds that 16 of the 25 major emitting countries and regions analysed are not on track to meet their self-determined NDC targets. While some countries like Brazil, China, and India are likely to achieve their targets with current policies, others, including the US, EU, and Canada, require additional measures. Furthermore, current policies are projected to fail to prevent emissions from increasing up to 2030 relative to 2010 levels in both developing and OECD nations, with only Japan and the EU projected to see further decreases.
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Document type: Report
Identified Technology Needs in TNAs and INDCs
The Technology Needs Database (TND) analyzes technology needs for climate mitigation and adaptation identified by developing countries. Mitigation needs are concentrated in energy supply, efficient cities, and mobility, while transport, forestry, and agriculture are underrepresented relative to their emissions. Adaptation needs focus on agriculture, forestry, water management, and disaster prevention, with oceans, coastal zones, and human settlements being relatively underrepresented.
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Document type: Briefing
Manufacturing a Low-Carbon Society: How Can We Reduce Emissions from Cement
The report argues that current technologies are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5˚C limit for the steel and cement industries. While efficiency gains and energy supply decarbonisation could reduce emissions by 30%–50% below current trends by 2050, further reductions will require innovative low-carbon technologies, product substitutions, circular production, and carbon capture and storage (CCS).
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Document type: Report
International Climate Initiatives: A Way Forward to Close the Emissions Gap
The study analyzes 174 international climate initiatives to determine their impact on greenhouse gas emissions compared to INDCs. It finds that a subset of 19 initiatives has a global reduction potential of 6-11 GtCO2 equivalents per year by 2030, contributing toward closing the 14 GtCO2e gap identified by the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2015 for a 2°C pathway.
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Document type: Research paper
States, cities and businesses leading the way: a first look at decentralized climate commitments in the US
An analysis of 342 decentralized commitments indicates that the US could meet half of its Paris Agreement climate goals by 2025 if these targets are implemented, with states providing the largest volume of reductions and businesses setting the steepest targets.
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Document type: Report
CDM supply potential up to 2020
The paper estimates the CER supply potential for 2013-2020 at 4.7 billion CERs, noting that 82% comes from projects not vulnerable to discontinuing greenhouse gas abatement. This figure is significantly lower than the 7.7 G t CO2 e estimated in project design documents, with hydro and wind power projects providing the largest share (61%) of the potential.
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Document type: Research paper
Climate Change Performance Index 2017: G20 Edition
The Climate Change Performance Index 2017: G20 Edition assesses the 20 largest economies, which collectively account for 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Using a revised methodology that incorporates Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) from the Paris Agreement, the index measures performance against benchmarks for 2030 and 2050, including nearly zero GHG emissions and 100% renewable energy. The report concludes that current efforts, even from top-performing countries, remain insufficient to prevent dangerous climate change.
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Document type: Report
Allianz Climate and Energy Monitor 2017
The 2017 Allianz Climate and Energy Monitor finds that while emerging markets like China and India are seeing a boom in renewable energy installations driven by falling costs, OECD countries—specifically Germany, the UK, and France—remain the most attractive investment destinations due to stable policy frameworks. The report highlights a significant investment gap, stating that G20 countries must roughly double annual investments to meet Paris Agreement goals, with absolute needs reaching USD 709 billion per year (2012 prices) between 2014 and 2035. It notes a global shift from feed-in tariffs to auction-based support systems and warns that governments must now transition from focusing on generation to holistic power system design to integrate variable renewables and avoid curtailment.
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Document type: Executive summary
Foot off the gas: Increased reliance on natural gas in the power sector risks
The document argues that natural gas must be phased out alongside coal to limit global warming to 1.5˚C, warning that current investments in gas infrastructure risk creating stranded assets as the power sector transitions to carbon-free energy by 2050.
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Document type: Report
NDC Update Report: Ambition to Action
The report examines the transition from NDC ambition to action, finding that while over 80% of interviewed government representatives view climate change as a political priority, 70% identify private sector buy-in and the synchronization of political and technical processes as significant challenges. It notes the emergence of dedicated NDC support and the growth of non-state commitments—with over 12,500 registered on NAZCA—while emphasizing that non-state action must be complemented by government policies to drive a low-carbon transition.
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Document type: Report
Vulnerability of CDM projects for discontinuation of mitigation activities
The report, commissioned by the German Emissions Trading Authority, examines the risk of CDM projects ceasing greenhouse gas abatement due to an oversupply of emission reduction credits in the global carbon market. It specifically aims to quantify the risk across different project types, assess the potential impact of supporting their continuation compared to the status quo, and identify options to ensure long-term mitigation.
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Document type: Report
Faster and Cleaner 2: It only takes a few countries to kick-start energy
The report examines the progress of decarbonisation across three global energy sectors. It highlights the rapid growth of wind and solar power, the emerging scale of electric vehicle sales, and the relative lag in the buildings sector despite available technological solutions.
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Document type: Report
Deep Dive: What do current policy developments in China, India and the US mean
The document argues that renewable energy investments in China, India, and the US must increase significantly—doubling in China and the US and tripling in India—to meet Paris Agreement warming limits. While China and India are rapidly expanding renewable capacity and moving away from coal, the US faces worsening federal policy ambition despite strong state-level support for renewables.
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Document type: Briefing
Assessing the ambition of post-2020 climate targets: a comprehensive
The research paper introduces a comprehensive assessment framework designed to evaluate the ambition of post-2020 greenhouse gas emission reduction proposals, specifically Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). By applying various assessment approaches to the proposals of China, the EU, and the US, the authors demonstrate that while individual results vary, clear trends emerge. The framework is intended to support the Paris Agreement's requirement for regular reviews and the global stocktake process, addressing a current lack of comprehensive assessment methods.
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Document type: Research paper
International Market Mechanisms After Paris
The document analyzes the evolving purpose and design challenges of international carbon market mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, noting a shift in priority from economic efficiency toward raising mitigation ambition.
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Document type: Research paper
The Emissions Gap Report 2016: A UNEP Synthesis Report
The 2016 UNEP Emissions Gap Report assesses the gap between projected 2030 global emissions under Intended Nationally Determined Contributions and the levels required to limit global temperature increases to well below 2°C or 1.5°C. It evaluates pre-2020 mitigation actions, the potential of non-state action and energy efficiency to increase ambition, and the relationship between the Sustainable Development Goals and climate mitigation.
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Document type: Report
The Paris Agreement: Resolving the inconsistency between global goals and national contributions
The document notes that current intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement's goals of limiting global temperature increases to well below 2°C or 1.5°C. However, it identifies several reasons for optimism: many contributions are conservative and may be overachieved, the INDC process has advanced national policy-making (especially in developing countries), and the Agreement mandates regular updates to strengthen actions. Additionally, the document highlights that non-state actions are not yet fully captured in INDCs and that faster-than-expected decarbonization in certain sectors suggests a broader transition is possible.
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Document type: Research paper
Advancing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) through Climate-Friendly
The document outlines how aligning the UNFCCC and Montreal Protocol regimes can help the refrigeration, air conditioning and foam (RAC&F) sector contribute to the Paris Agreement's temperature targets. It highlights that rising demand for cooling, driven by urbanization and population growth, increases CO2 and hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions. The guide emphasizes the importance of the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, which aims to phase down HFCs to avoid significant temperature increases.
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Document type: Guide
Paris Agreement in force, but no increase in climate action
One year after the Paris Agreement's adoption, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) finds that national climate policies have made little progress. If NDCs are fully implemented, global warming by 2100 is estimated at 2.8°C, while current policies would lead to 3.6°C. A significant emissions gap remains for 2025 and 2030. The report highlights specific national trajectories, noting that most assessed NDCs are inadequate or medium in ambition, with particular concerns regarding the US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, while noting positive renewable energy growth in India.
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Document type: Report