Search Climate Insights Directory

The seminar concludes that elections are not isolated events but part of a broader body polity, meaning their effectiveness in preventing conflict depends on the surrounding political culture and context. Using Ghana as a reference point, the discussion highlights that presidential elections in Africa often become zero-sum games because control of the presidency equates to control over a country's political and economic future. To mitigate this, the report suggests distributing power across state institutions and ensuring the impartiality and professionalism of Electoral Commissions. Key recommendations for managing electoral processes include grounding the process in citizen ownership, ensuring timely release of results, and fostering a culture of conceding defeat to build political compromise.

The briefing examines how the global banking crisis and falling commodity prices threaten African budgets and social expenditure, while analyzing ongoing political instability in countries like the DRC, Sudan, and Somalia, and the prospects for democratic consolidation across the continent.

The document examines how anthropogenic climate change and rapid population growth intensify resource competition and instability in Africa. It highlights the continent's low adaptive capacity due to poverty and weak governance, while noting that resource scarcity does not linearly lead to war but can also foster cooperation.

The document critiques the Nigerian Federal Government's 2009 amnesty program, which offered financial compensation to militants in the Niger Delta in exchange for disarmament. It argues that the deal focuses on symptomatic relief through cash payments rather than addressing the systemic socio-economic grievances and oil revenue allocation issues identified by the Niger Delta Technical Committee (NDTC). The author contends that without comprehensive reforms in governance and human development, the amnesty deal is unlikely to achieve sustainable peace and may instead encourage further militarization.

The document serves as a practical guide for the ratification of the Treaty of Pelindaba, which aims to ensure that no African country develops, produces, tests, acquires, or stations nuclear weapons. It details the treaty's obligations, the role of the African Commission on Nuclear Energy, and the specific steps states must take to formally join the agreement. As of February 2009, 26 of the 53 African Union member states had deposited instruments of ratification, with two more required for the treaty to enter into force.

The report outlines a framework for African civil society organizations (CSOs) to engage with the UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy, moving away from security-only responses toward a holistic approach emphasizing human rights and development. It recommends that CSOs provide research, capacity-building, and monitoring to support implementation, while urging the UN and African governments to provide more transparency and operational space for these organizations. The document suggests integrating counter-terrorism efforts into existing peace-building and governance networks and proposes the eventual creation of a dedicated CSO network to coordinate activities across the Strategy's four pillars.

The document details a 2009 workshop organized by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) focusing on the intersection of climate change and transboundary water conflicts in Africa, with a heavy emphasis on the Nile River Basin. It examines how environmental degradation, population growth, and uneven water distribution exacerbate tensions between riparian states. The report highlights the role of regional bodies like the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), IGAD, and ECOWAS, and argues that while climate change acts as a 'threat multiplier,' it can also serve as an incentive for regional cooperation. Key recommendations include the ratification of the UN Convention on the Law of Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses, the establishment of joint management frameworks, and the integration of climate adaptation into national planning and donor programs.

The document details a seminar featuring Dr. David Zounmenou and Mr. Sandile Zeka, who analyzed the 2008 Ghana elections. Dr. Zounmenou argued that Ghana's peaceful process was due to strong institutional mechanisms, such as a respected code of ethics and a credible Electoral Commission, contrasting this with violence in Kenya and Zimbabwe. Mr. Zeka applied 'mental model' theory to argue that shared internal images of injustice from military rule and common social needs drove Ghana's democratic stability and voting patterns. Both speakers emphasized the need for independent electoral commissions and voter education to prevent electoral violence in Africa.

The document argues that the withdrawal of UN peacekeepers (UNMEE) in 2008 has created a diplomatic vacuum, heightening the risk of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. It details how both regimes use the border dispute to justify domestic repression and engage in proxy wars in Somalia and Sudan. The author highlights the personal animosity between leaders Meles Zenawi and Issayas Afwerki and the fragility of the Eritrean state. It concludes by recommending that the US lead a renewed international mediation effort to establish a legally binding border demarcation.

The report details a seminar featuring representatives from the South African Police Service (SAPS) and the Local Organising Committee (LOC) regarding security plans for the 2010 FIFA World Cup. Key discussions focused on the Joint Operational and Intelligence Structure (JOINTS), funding for police equipment and personnel, the demarcation of stadium security zones, and the coordination between state and FIFA authorities.

The document reports on a seminar featuring U.S. Ambassador Eric M. Bost, who cautioned against overly high expectations for a paradigm shift in U.S.-Africa relations under President-elect Barack Obama. Ambassador Bost argued that domestic U.S. challenges, including high unemployment and foreclosures, would likely take priority over international issues. He further noted that the Bush administration had already provided significant aid and trade benefits to Africa, including $1.5 billion to South Africa via PEPFAR and $9 billion in goods through AGOA, suggesting that a Democratic administration might not necessarily increase this support or be as disposed to free trade as Republicans.

The document examines the transition of French-African relations from the Gaullist 'Françafrique' model—characterized by personalized ties with authoritarian leaders—toward a more transparent, multilateral approach. It highlights the failures of the 'Baule doctrine' to enforce democratization and the shift in military strategy toward reinforcing African peacekeeping capacities (RECAMP). Economically, it notes a trend of disengagement, with France moving from a primary donor to an intermediary for international financial institutions and introducing conditionality via the 'Abidjan doctrine'. Under Nicolas Sarkozy, the document identifies a contradictory mix of provocative rhetoric and new promises of transparency in defense agreements and co-development funds, while noting that traditional practices of supporting authoritarian regimes persist.

The report examines the South African government's efforts to curb social grant fraud, specifically focusing on the role of the Department of Social Development (DSD), the Special Investigating Unit (SIU), and the establishment of the South African Social Security Agency (SASSA). It highlights a significant anti-fraud campaign that identified thousands of ineligible public servants and private beneficiaries, resulting in billions of rands in savings. However, the authors critique the reliance on a technocratic approach that ignores the root causes of fraud—namely poverty and unemployment—and notes systemic administrative failures, particularly in the Eastern Cape. The document recommends strengthening internal controls, improving inter-departmental database integration, and ensuring a more consistent application of the law for all fraudsters regardless of their status as civil servants.

The document examines Africa's engagement with the CWC and BTWC, noting that while CWC participation is high due to the support of the OPCW, BTWC engagement is low due to a lack of an oversight body and a perception that biological weapons are not a primary threat. It highlights significant gaps in national legislation and the vulnerability of African public health systems to deliberate disease outbreaks.

The report analyzes the systemic nature of corruption in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) from 2003 to 2006, arguing that the 'kleptocratic' legacy of the Mobutu era persisted through the transition. It details how power-sharing agreements under the Sun City Accord prioritized political clientelism over merit, leading to widespread pillaging of public finances, state-owned enterprises, and the mining and forestry sectors. Despite the introduction of new anti-corruption laws and the creation of monitoring bodies like the CELC and OCEP, the report finds these efforts largely failed due to a lack of political will, institutional dysfunction, and the complicity of international partners who prioritized electoral stability over good governance.

The document examines the hydropolitics of the Nile Basin, focusing on the tensions between upstream states, particularly Ethiopia, and downstream states, Egypt and Sudan. It argues that colonial-era agreements and Egypt's pursuit of 'prior appropriation' rights have created an inequitable distribution of water, hindering development in upper riparian states. The author suggests that cooperation through frameworks like the Nile Basin Initiative and the adoption of the Helsinki Rules for equitable sharing are necessary to avoid future conflict and ensure food and energy security.

The seminar featured speakers including Gwede Mantashe, who dismissed the Lekota/Shilowa breakaway group as being driven by power rather than ideology. Panelists discussed whether the Polokwane conference represented an ideological shift, the clash between different political cultures (exile vs. internal struggle), and the emergence of a new class system and youth identity crisis in post-independent South Africa.

The Institute for Security Studies announced the launch of a web portal for the African Conference of Commandants (ACoC), which serves as a representative platform for military command and staff colleges across Africa. The ACoC aims to improve harmonization and cooperation among these colleges to support the African Standby Force (ASF) and Peace and Support Operations (PSOs). Key objectives include transforming military education and training through benchmarking, curriculum best practices, and the potential development of an annual Combined Joint African Exercise (CJAX). The ISS Security Sector Governance programme currently acts as the ACoC Secretariat and maintains the website.

The briefing analyzes the rise of piracy in Somalia, specifically citing the seizure of the MV Faina, as evidence of systemic security failures. It attributes the crisis to the inability of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) to provide security, the limited mandate of AMISOM, and the failure of regional bodies like IGAD. The author contends that piracy gained local legitimacy as a response to the illegal exploitation of Somali marine resources by foreign companies and argues that military solutions are insufficient without a paradigm shift toward human security and the establishment of an inclusive Somali government.

The document details the perspectives of General Martin Luther Agwai on the implementation of the UNAMID mandate in Darfur. It outlines the socio-economic and political origins of the Darfur conflict, the transition from the African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS) to the hybrid UNAMID operation, and the significant logistical and political hurdles facing the mission. General Agwai argues that while UNAMID has achieved success in civilian protection and humanitarian support, it is severely hampered by a lack of equipment, insufficient troop levels, and a complex security environment where no stable peace exists to be kept.