Africa 2009: Some Preliminary Observations

This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the economic and political outlook for Africa in 2009, highlighting the risks posed by the global banking crisis, commodity price volatility, and precarious democratic transitions.

• The global banking sub-prime crisis and subsequent economic contraction are expected to impact Africa primarily through indirect channels, including reduced foreign direct investment in politically challenging areas and cuts to aid budgets, which will pressure balance of payments positions.
• A decline in commodity prices and the contraction of consumer markets in Europe and the Americas will lead to a significant drop in the volume and value of African exports, particularly affecting oil-dependent states like Nigeria and copper-dependent states like Zambia.
• Economic volatility is likely to trigger austerity policies that threaten social expenditure and human security, potentially leading to difficulties in paying salaries for security forces and civil servants.
• Political stability remains fragile across several nations: the Democratic Republic of Congo continues to struggle with state consolidation, Sudan faces deadlines regarding the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), and Somalia lacks prospects for state reconstruction following the withdrawal of Ethiopian forces.
• Democratic consolidation in Africa is described as precarious, evidenced by leaders manipulating constitutions to extend their terms, such as President Abdelaziz Bouteflika in Algeria, though Ghana is noted as a positive example of peaceful leadership change.

APA

Cornwell, R. (2009). Africa 2009: Some Preliminary Observations. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/africa-2009-some-preliminary-observations

Chicago

Cornwell, Richard. Africa 2009: Some Preliminary Observations. Institute for Security Studies, 2009. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/africa-2009-some-preliminary-observations.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cornwell |first1=Richard |title=Africa 2009: Some Preliminary Observations |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=12 January 2009 |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/africa-2009-some-preliminary-observations |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cornwell2009africa, author = {Cornwell, Richard}, title = {{Africa 2009: Some Preliminary Observations}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2009}, month = jan, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/africa-2009-some-preliminary-observations}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }