Africa 2009: Some Preliminary Observations

The briefing examines how the global banking crisis and falling commodity prices threaten African budgets and social expenditure, while analyzing ongoing political instability in countries like the DRC, Sudan, and Somalia, and the prospects for democratic consolidation across the continent.

• The global financial crisis is expected to impact Africa through reduced foreign direct investment, cuts to aid budgets, and pressure on balance of payments, despite the continent's banking sectors experiencing little direct damage.
• Falling commodity prices and the recession of major industrial economies, including China, are likely to cause a significant drop in the value and volume of African exports, hindering governments' ability to meet revenue requirements and threatening social expenditure.
• Specific economic vulnerabilities are noted for oil-producing states like Nigeria and copper-dependent states like Zambia, where budget turmoil may lead to difficulties in paying civil service and security force salaries.
• Political instability is predicted to persist in several regions, with the Democratic Republic of Congo resisting democratic consolidation, Sudan facing deadlines in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, and Somalia lacking prospects for state reconstruction.
• Democratic consolidation in Africa remains precarious as some leaders manipulate constitutions to extend their terms, exemplified by President Abdelaziz Bouteflika in Algeria.

APA

Cornwell, R. (2009). Africa 2009: Some Preliminary Observations. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/africa-2009-some-preliminary-observations

Chicago

Cornwell, Richard. Africa 2009: Some Preliminary Observations. Institute for Security Studies, 2009. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/africa-2009-some-preliminary-observations.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cornwell |first1=Richard |title=Africa 2009: Some Preliminary Observations |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=12 January 2009 |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/africa-2009-some-preliminary-observations |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cornwell2009africa, author = {Cornwell, Richard}, title = {{Africa 2009: Some Preliminary Observations}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2009}, month = jan, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/africa-2009-some-preliminary-observations}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }