Climate change, population pressure and conflict in Africa

The document examines how anthropogenic climate change and rapid population growth intensify resource competition and instability in Africa. It highlights the continent's low adaptive capacity due to poverty and weak governance, while noting that resource scarcity does not linearly lead to war but can also foster cooperation.

• Africa is projected to face more severe challenges from climate change than any other region due to its high dependency on natural resources and low adaptive capacity, which the IPCC describes as a 'double whammy' resulting from poverty, weak governments, and disease.
• Climate change is expected to severely compromise food security and water access in Africa by 2020, with projections suggesting between 75 and 250 million people will face increased water stress and rain-fed agricultural yields could drop by up to 50% in some countries.
• Africa is experiencing the world's most rapid population growth and urbanisation; by 2050, the continent is expected to host 25 per cent of the global population, with urban populations doubling by 2030 to 759.4 million.
• Water scarcity is a critical developmental constraint in southern Africa, with South Africa having already allocated approximately 98 per cent of its national water resources, potentially leading to social instability.
• While some argue that climate change directly triggers violence—citing the Darfur conflict as an ecological crisis—the author contends that resource competition is not a generic conflict-factor and can instead serve as a basis for cooperation.
• The discovery of oil in poor African countries often undermines democracy and sustainable development, creating a 'resource curse' where wealth is captured by small elites while causing ecological disasters, as seen in Nigeria's Niger Delta.
• Africa's role in the global carbon cycle is poorly understood due to a significant deficit in meteorological infrastructure, with some estimates suggesting an eightfold deficit in weather watch stations compared to recommended levels.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2009). Climate change, population pressure and conflict in Africa. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper178.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Climate change, population pressure and conflict in Africa. Institute for Security Studies, 2009. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper178.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Climate change, population pressure and conflict in Africa |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=January 2009 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper178.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2009climate, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Climate change, population pressure and conflict in Africa}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2009}, month = jan, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper178.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }