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The report argues that terrorism and violent extremism are highly gendered activities and that PVE and CT responses are more sustainable and effective when they promote gender equality and women's empowerment. It identifies gaps in global policy implementation, highlights the gendered impact of CT human rights violations, and warns against the instrumentalisation of women in PVE programming. The authors recommend a shift toward context-specific, human rights-compliant strategies that engage both men and women as equal actors, particularly through a focus on parenting.

The report argues that for transitional justice to be effective in South Sudan, the African Union must move beyond the mere establishment of a hybrid court to support a coordinated, victim-centred strategy. This includes the Commission for Truth, Reconciliation and Healing (CTRH) and the Compensation and Reparation Authority (CRA), alongside traditional reconciliation mechanisms. The authors emphasize that security, psychosocial support, and the inclusion of civil society and the diaspora are essential preconditions for success. Drawing on lessons from other African nations, the report highlights the limitations of international trials and the critical importance of tangible reparations and local ownership to ensure the non-recurrence of violence.

The report argues that while Mozambique possesses massive natural gas reserves that could drive significant GDP growth, such resource-led growth is unlikely to reduce absolute poverty without concerted investment in human capital and governance. Using the International Futures (IFs) model, the authors demonstrate that the 'Current Path' maintains high levels of extreme poverty due to rapid population growth and systemic failures in health and education. The report evaluates five sectoral scenarios—improving family planning, extending health and nutrition, advancing education, boosting agricultural production, and strengthening governance—concluding that an integrated development strategy is essential to avoid a 'vicious cycle of under-development' and to ensure that gas revenues translate into sustainable, inclusive progress.

The report identifies a gap between Namibia's strong economic growth and its poor human development indicators, particularly in sanitation, electricity access, and nutrition. Using the International Futures (IFs) system, it models various policy interventions to determine their impact on GDP, extreme poverty, and infant mortality. Key findings suggest that while individual sectoral pushes like 'Health Extension' or 'Infrastructure Push' provide specific gains, an 'Integrated Development Push' combined with household transfers offers the most comprehensive path to reducing poverty and inequality, though it involves trade-offs in funding and specific health outcomes.

The report argues that the UN Security Council has historically prioritised reactive conflict management and peacekeeping over prevention. It identifies significant hurdles to operationalising prevention, including a lack of unified definitions, budgetary discrepancies, and organisational fragmentation. The authors recommend establishing concrete implementation strategies, improving coordination between UN organs and the African Union, and shifting toward structural prevention that addresses the root causes of conflict.

The report assesses Mozambique's development outlook to 2040, arguing that while natural gas production will drive significant GDP growth from the mid-2020s, it will not automatically reduce absolute poverty without concerted investments in human capital and governance. Using scenario analysis, the authors demonstrate that integrated pushes in family planning, health, education, agriculture, and governance can significantly reduce extreme poverty and infant mortality, whereas stalled development and delayed gas production could lead to a sharp increase in the number of people living in extreme poverty.

The report examines Mozambique's development prospects through 2040, arguing that while natural gas reserves offer significant economic potential, they are not a 'panacea' for poverty reduction. Using the International Futures (IF) model, the authors analyze a 'Current Trajectory' and several alternative scenarios. They find that without concerted investment in human capital—specifically health, education, and agriculture—and improvements in governance, the absolute number of people in extreme poverty is projected to remain nearly stagnant at approximately 19 million by 2040, despite GDP growth. The report advocates for an 'Integrated Development Boost' across multiple sectors to achieve inclusive growth, while warning that a 'Stagnated Development' scenario involving governance decline and gas production delays could lead to a 61% increase in extreme poverty.

The report analyzes the shift in South African foreign policy from Thabo Mbeki's multilateralism and 'African Renaissance' to Jacob Zuma's focus on the BRICS grouping and bilateral relations. It argues that while BRICS membership was a pragmatic move, the Zuma era was marked by a decline in moral authority, domestic instability, and a disconnect between 'high politics' (pro-China/Russia) and 'low politics' (trade dominance of the EU and US). The author recommends that future leadership prioritize regional integration in Africa, develop regional value chains, and restore a commitment to a rules-based international system to drive domestic economic growth.

Angola is undergoing a critical presidential transition amid a severe financial crisis and rising social discontent. The report argues that the state's stability has relied on four unsustainable pillars: a centralized presidency, oil-funded patronage via Sonangol, instrumentalized foreign relations, and a securitized society. With plummeting oil prices and high debt—particularly to China—the ruling MPLA party faces internal factionalism and a strengthened opposition, primarily UNITA. The author contends that the incoming president, João Lourenço, must implement deep economic diversification and security sector reforms to avoid mass unrest or further authoritarianism.

The document assesses the threat of violent extremism in South Africa, concluding that while the overall risk of a major attack is low, the country remains vulnerable to 'lone wolf' incidents and the use of its infrastructure as a base for international extremists. It details the history of far-right groups like the AWB and Boeremag, the militant activities of Pagad in the 1990s, and recent concerns regarding South Africans joining ISIS. The brief highlights systemic vulnerabilities such as government corruption and porous borders, while recommending a focus on youth engagement, social cohesion, and improved intelligence capabilities.

The report analyzes Ethiopia's trajectory toward lower-middle-income status, highlighting significant progress in GDP growth and health indicators alongside persistent challenges in food security, education quality, and political inclusion. It uses scenario modeling to demonstrate that integrated investments in agriculture, human capital, and governance are essential to harness a looming demographic dividend and avoid instability driven by a large youth bulge.

The report argues that the Agreement for the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (ARCISS) is failing due to a lack of government political will, leading to increased ethnic violence and insecurity. It critiques the uncoordinated efforts of international and African mediators, which have allowed the South Sudanese government to manipulate external actors. The authors suggest that the AU can improve peace prospects by insisting on a ceasefire as a precondition for the national dialogue, ensuring the dialogue is neutral and inclusive, and coordinating a unified strategic approach between Northern and Southern external partners.

The African Union (AU) has developed comprehensive maritime strategies, most notably the 2050 Africa’s Integrated Maritime Strategy (2050 AIMS), but implementation has stalled due to a lack of resources, expertise, and a clear conceptual definition of the 'blue economy'. The document highlights the failure of the 2050 AIMS Strategic Task Force (STF) to meet quorum or produce a road map, and the marginalisation of the interdepartmental task force within the Office of the Legal Counsel. To resolve this, the author recommends establishing a dedicated AU department of maritime affairs—potentially within the Department of Trade and Industry or Transport—and convening a conference in 2017 to align the AU's vision of the blue economy with Agenda 2063.

The document examines the African Union's (AU) efforts to integrate youth into democratic governance, highlighting the African Governance Architecture-Youth Engagement Strategy (AGA-YES) and the African Youth Charter. It argues that despite these frameworks, young people remain largely alienated and marginalised, facing significant barriers such as unemployment and restrictive legislation. The brief details findings from 2016 regional consultations, noting that youth often lack knowledge of the AU human rights system and face systemic hurdles like prohibitive age requirements for political office. It recommends that member states domesticate AU shared values, repeal discriminatory laws, and move beyond tokenistic engagement to harness the potential of Africa's youth demographic.

The report analyzes development trajectories for 14 Southern African countries, forecasting that while GDP is expected to grow, extreme poverty will persist due to rapid population growth and governance challenges. It uses scenario modeling to demonstrate that integrated policy interventions in governance, health, education, and infrastructure can significantly improve regional outcomes, with governance capacity identified as the primary catalyst for economic growth.

The document presents findings from a study of 50 peacebuilders in northern Nigeria, identifying religious and political factors as the primary drivers of Boko Haram recruitment. It argues that while military action is seen as having little impact on recruitment, a sustainable solution requires a combination of hard security and soft measures, including negotiation, amnesty, and national reconciliation.

The document argues that while South Africa has extensive research on the causes of violence and several effective small-scale interventions, there is a significant 'implementation gap' in translating these into national practice. It advocates for the use of implementation research—the study of how to improve the uptake and translation of research findings into routine practice—to ensure programmes remain effective when scaled. The authors recommend establishing an 'implementation hub' to coordinate government, NGOs, and researchers, ensuring that real-world challenges such as staff burnout, participant retention, and inadequate referral systems are addressed in the planning and delivery of violence prevention services.

The document provides a detailed analysis of the South African national and provincial budget cycles, distinguishing between costing, budgeting, and funding. It argues that due to a constrained economic climate and rising public debt, new funding for violence prevention is unlikely, necessitating a strategy of reprioritisation from non-core areas. The authors recommend that advocates for violence prevention develop credible implementation plans, create short-term outcome measures to fit three-year budget cycles, and target key officials in the National Treasury and provincial departments to ensure these programmes remain a political priority.

The document examines the gap between Africa's formal legal commitments to freedom of movement and the actual practice of migration governance. While the African Union and various Regional Economic Communities have established frameworks to promote labour mobility and economic integration, implementation remains inconsistent. West Africa is highlighted as the most advanced model, whereas Southern Africa is noted for a securitised approach to migration. The brief argues that aligning regional policies and improving communication on the net benefits of migration are essential for unlocking the continent's development potential.

The document analyzes Ethiopia's rapid economic growth and human development progress since 1991, while highlighting persistent gaps in basic service access and agricultural productivity. Using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system, it compares a 'Current Path' forecast against various intervention scenarios, concluding that an integrated approach across agriculture, education, health, and governance is necessary to reach lower-middle-income status by 2025.