Prospects and Challenges: Mozambique’s Growth and Human Development Outlook to 2040

The report assesses Mozambique's development outlook to 2040, arguing that while natural gas production will drive significant GDP growth from the mid-2020s, it will not automatically reduce absolute poverty without concerted investments in human capital and governance. Using scenario analysis, the authors demonstrate that integrated pushes in family planning, health, education, agriculture, and governance can significantly reduce extreme poverty and infant mortality, whereas stalled development and delayed gas production could lead to a sharp increase in the number of people living in extreme poverty.

• Natural gas production is expected to drive substantial economic growth between the mid-2020s and early 2030s, but it is not a guaranteed solution for poverty reduction. Projections indicate that the absolute number of people in extreme poverty in 2040 will remain nearly the same as current levels (approximately 18.7 million versus 19 million) even with increased gas production.
• Mozambique faces a significant demographic challenge with a rapidly growing population forecast to reach 53 million by 2040. The country has a large and growing 'youth bulge' (ages 15-29), which the report identifies as a potential driver of internal instability if accompanied by unemployment and poor service delivery.
• The country's education system suffers from a severe bottleneck at the primary level, with a primary survival rate of only 37.5%, meaning very few students progress to secondary or tertiary education. This contributes to Mozambique having one of the lowest levels of educational attainment globally.
• Agricultural production is critical for poverty reduction as over 70% of the population is employed in the sector. However, without increasing yields and land under cultivation, food import dependence is forecast to rise from 5% in 2016 to 25% by 2040, increasing vulnerability to external price shocks.
• Government effectiveness has been declining over the last 20 years, and the recent sovereign debt crisis—involving approximately US$1.4 billion in undisclosed debt—has undermined confidence in the state's ability to transparently manage future gas revenues.
• An integrated development push across health, education, agriculture, governance, and family planning would result in a 14% increase in GDP, a 17% increase in government revenue, and a 23% reduction in people living in extreme poverty by 2040 compared to the current trajectory.
• A 'stalled development' scenario—characterized by delayed gas production, declining government capacity, and limited progress in human development—would lead to a 24% reduction in GDP and over a 60% increase in the number of people living in extreme poverty relative to the current path.
• Health outcomes are heavily impacted by communicable diseases, with AIDS being the primary burden for adults aged 30-59. The report notes that as basic services improve, the country will undergo an epidemiological transition toward non-communicable diseases (NCDs) starting in the late 2020s.

APA

Porter, A., Bohl, D., Kwasi, S., Donnenfeld, Z., & Cilliers, J. (2017). Prospects and Challenges: Mozambique’s Growth and Human Development Outlook to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/mozambique-report-eng-3.pdf

Chicago

Porter, Alex, David Bohl, Stellah Kwasi, Zachary Donnenfeld, and Jakkie Cilliers. Prospects and Challenges: Mozambique’s Growth and Human Development Outlook to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2017. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/mozambique-report-eng-3.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Porter |first1=Alex |last2=Bohl |first2=David |last3=Kwasi |first3=Stellah |last4=Donnenfeld |first4=Zachary |last5=Cilliers |first5=Jakkie |title=Prospects and Challenges: Mozambique’s Growth and Human Development Outlook to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=June 2017 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/mozambique-report-eng-3.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{porter2017prospects, author = {Porter, Alex and Bohl, David and Kwasi, Stellah and Donnenfeld, Zachary and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Prospects and Challenges: Mozambique’s Growth and Human Development Outlook to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2017}, month = jun, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/mozambique-report-eng-3.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }