Perspectivas e Desafios: Crescimento e Desenvolvimento Humano em Moçambique até 2040

The report examines Mozambique's development prospects through 2040, arguing that while natural gas reserves offer significant economic potential, they are not a 'panacea' for poverty reduction. Using the International Futures (IF) model, the authors analyze a 'Current Trajectory' and several alternative scenarios. They find that without concerted investment in human capital—specifically health, education, and agriculture—and improvements in governance, the absolute number of people in extreme poverty is projected to remain nearly stagnant at approximately 19 million by 2040, despite GDP growth. The report advocates for an 'Integrated Development Boost' across multiple sectors to achieve inclusive growth, while warning that a 'Stagnated Development' scenario involving governance decline and gas production delays could lead to a 61% increase in extreme poverty.

• Natural gas production is projected to drive significant economic growth from the mid-2020s to the early 2030s, but it is unlikely to automatically reduce absolute poverty. Projections suggest that the number of people living in extreme poverty in 2040 (18.7 million) will remain similar to current levels (19 million) even with increased gas production.
• Mozambique faces a significant demographic challenge with a rapidly growing young population, projected to reach 53 million by 2040. This growth puts immense pressure on the government's ability to provide basic services, with millions more children requiring education and millions more people needing water and sanitation by 2040.
• The education system suffers from a severe 'bottleneck' at the primary level, where only 37.5% of students who enroll in primary school reach the final grade. This low survival rate severely limits the number of students progressing to secondary and higher education.
• Health outcomes are heavily impacted by communicable diseases, particularly among children under five. High rates of child malnutrition (over 15%) and stunting (31%) are linked to poor access to water, sanitation, and food, which in turn limits cognitive and physical development.
• Agriculture remains the primary livelihood for over 70% of the population, but the country faces a growing gap between food demand and domestic supply. Dependence on agricultural imports is projected to rise from 5% in 2016 to 25% by 2040, increasing vulnerability to external price shocks and climate change.
• Government capacity and effectiveness have declined over the last 20 years, and the country remains heavily dependent on external aid. The 'hidden debt' crisis and subsequent sovereign default have further weakened confidence in the government's ability to transparently manage future gas revenues.
• An 'Integrated Development Boost'—combining improvements in health, education, agriculture, and governance—could lead to a 14% increase in GDP, a 17% increase in government revenue, and a 23% reduction in extreme poverty by 2040 compared to the current trajectory.
• Conversely, a 'Stagnated Development' scenario—characterized by delayed gas production, declining government effectiveness, and stalled human development—could result in a 24% reduction in GDP and a more than 60% increase in the number of people living in extreme poverty relative to the current trajectory.

APA

Porter, A., Bohl, D., Kwasi, S., Donnenfeld, Z., & Cilliers, J. (2017). Perspectivas e Desafios: Crescimento e Desenvolvimento Humano em Moçambique até 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/mozambique-report-por-3.pdf

Chicago

Porter, Alex, David Bohl, Stellah Kwasi, Zachary Donnenfeld, and Jakkie Cilliers. Perspectivas e Desafios: Crescimento e Desenvolvimento Humano em Moçambique até 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2017. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/mozambique-report-por-3.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Porter |first1=Alex |last2=Bohl |first2=David |last3=Kwasi |first3=Stellah |last4=Donnenfeld |first4=Zachary |last5=Cilliers |first5=Jakkie |title=Perspectivas e Desafios: Crescimento e Desenvolvimento Humano em Moçambique até 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=June 2017 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/mozambique-report-por-3.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{porter2017perspectivas, author = {Porter, Alex and Bohl, David and Kwasi, Stellah and Donnenfeld, Zachary and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Perspectivas e Desafios: Crescimento e Desenvolvimento Humano em Moçambique até 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2017}, month = jun, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/mozambique-report-por-3.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }