Can natural gas improve Mozambique’s development?

The report argues that while Mozambique possesses massive natural gas reserves that could drive significant GDP growth, such resource-led growth is unlikely to reduce absolute poverty without concerted investment in human capital and governance. Using the International Futures (IFs) model, the authors demonstrate that the 'Current Path' maintains high levels of extreme poverty due to rapid population growth and systemic failures in health and education. The report evaluates five sectoral scenarios—improving family planning, extending health and nutrition, advancing education, boosting agricultural production, and strengthening governance—concluding that an integrated development strategy is essential to avoid a 'vicious cycle of under-development' and to ensure that gas revenues translate into sustainable, inclusive progress.

• Natural gas production is not a guaranteed solution for development; economic growth from this sector is forecast to do little to reduce absolute poverty over the next 23 years under current conditions.
• Mozambique faces a significant demographic challenge with a rapidly growing population that will increase the demand for basic services; by 2040, the population is forecast to reach 53 million.
• The country's education system suffers from a critical bottleneck at the primary level, with a survival rate of 37.5%, meaning very few students progress to secondary or tertiary education.
• Mozambique has a high burden of communicable diseases, particularly among children under five, and the highest stunting rate among its regional peers.
• The agricultural sector is vital for poverty reduction as it employs 72% of the labor force, but it is vulnerable to climate change, specifically droughts and severe flooding.
• Government effectiveness has declined over the last 20 years, and a recent sovereign debt crisis involving undisclosed debt has undermined confidence in the state's ability to manage gas revenues transparently.
• An 'Integrated Development Push' combining improvements across all sectors could reduce the number of people in extreme poverty by 4 million by 2040 compared to the Current Path.
• Conversely, a 'Stalled Development' scenario—characterized by delayed gas production and declining government capacity—could result in over 11 million more people living in extreme poverty by 2040.

APA

Porter, A., Bohl, D., Kwasi, S., Donnenfeld, Z., & Cilliers, J. (2017). Can natural gas improve Mozambique’s development? Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar10.pdf

Chicago

Porter, Alex, David Bohl, Stellah Kwasi, Zachary Donnenfeld, and Jakkie Cilliers. Can natural gas improve Mozambique’s development? Institute for Security Studies, 2017. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar10.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{porter2017can, author = {Porter, Alex and Bohl, David and Kwasi, Stellah and Donnenfeld, Zachary and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Can natural gas improve Mozambique’s development?}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2017}, month = sep, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar10.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }