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The authors propose a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty (FF-NPT) based on three pillars: non-proliferation of new reserves, disarmament of existing infrastructure, and financing low-carbon alternatives. This proposal addresses the gap in the Paris Agreement, which does not mention fossil fuels despite their role as the primary cause of the climate crisis. The authors highlight that 80% of coal, oil, and gas reserves are un-burnable if warming is to be kept below 2°C, and they point to existing national moratoria in countries like New Zealand and France as evidence of growing political momentum for supply-side climate policy.

The document argues that for climate transitions to be successful and socially acceptable, they must be both fast and fair. It emphasizes that Just Transition should be integrated into NDCs and national planning through participatory social dialogue and multi-scalar action. The brief highlights the importance of the Silesia Declaration and the role of the ILO in providing frameworks for decent work. It specifically identifies the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region as requiring greater support due to high fossil fuel dependence. Key recommendations include pre-emptive planning, skills development, and the use of targeted social protection tools like pension guarantees and retraining. The author calls for more empirical research, including quantitative evidence of net job gains, to inform decision-makers.

The document argues that while the technology to limit global warming to 1.5°C exists, deployment is hindered by nationalist politics, private sector competitiveness concerns, and capacity constraints in developing nations. It emphasizes that rapid decarbonisation must be balanced with social and economic development to avoid exacerbating inequities and undermining public support.

The report argues that coal transitions are already underway due to economic shifts, the falling cost of renewables, and environmental concerns, independent of climate policy. Through analysis of China, India, South Africa, Poland, Germany, and Australia, it concludes that phasing out coal is technically feasible and cost-neutral or advantageous for consumers. It emphasizes that a 'just transition' for workers and communities is possible through early stakeholder consultation, tailored workforce programs, and regional economic diversification. The document also warns coal exporters of the risks of stranded assets and the potential for abrupt declines in global demand.

The author suggests that the Talanoa Dialogue should be used as a platform for countries to share and replicate successful low-carbon policies. Based on a specific scenario, replicating successful policies in sectors covering 65% of global emissions could reduce emissions by approximately 10 GtCO2e by 2030 compared to current policies, effectively halving the reductions needed to keep temperature rise below 2 °C.

The policy brief examines the tension between national climate measures and international trade rules, such as those of the WTO. Based on a literature review and 26 expert interviews, it categorizes 22 options for alignment by their short-term political feasibility. The authors recommend six immediate actions: leveraging regional trade agreements (RTAs), engaging in plurilateral efforts like the Environmental Goods Agreement, intensifying WTO and UNFCCC coordination, voluntarily including climate issues in the WTO Trade Policy Review Mechanism, advancing border carbon adjustments (BCAs) via like-minded coalitions, and promoting fossil fuel subsidy reform through a group of WTO Members.

The author proposes using border carbon adjustments (BCAs) as a strategic response to U.S. protectionism. By targeting U.S. goods based on carbon intensity, countries can signal their climate commitments and potentially pressure the U.S. to reconsider its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and its rollback of domestic climate policies.

The report evaluates 22 trade-related policy options to support climate action, categorising them into general trade system support, border carbon adjustments, and fossil fuel subsidy reform, while assessing their political feasibility across short, medium, and long-term horizons.

The report evaluates 22 options to make the international trade system more supportive of climate action, categorising them into general WTO reforms, border carbon adjustments (BCAs), and fossil fuel subsidy reforms. It concludes that legal changes at the WTO are currently unfeasible due to geopolitical tensions and the requirement for consensus. Instead, it identifies 'low-hanging fruit' such as procedural changes, including the integration of climate expertise into dispute panels and enhanced coordination between the WTO and UNFCCC. The report also highlights the role of regional trade agreements (RTAs) and plurilateral initiatives, like the Environmental Goods Agreement (EGA), as more viable paths for like-minded countries to advance climate objectives.

The production of basic materials, including cement, iron, steel, aluminium, and chemicals, accounted for approximately 25% of global CO2 emissions in 2014. The author contends that deep decarbonisation has been limited by a lack of knowledge regarding climate-friendly alternatives and a policy focus on carbon leakage risks. To overcome this, the brief identifies three primary policy gaps: incomplete incentives for recycling, a lack of short- and long-term markets for climate-friendly options, and missing signals regarding the phase-out of carbon-intensive production. Proposed solutions include green public procurement, project-based carbon contracts for difference (CfD), and a consumption charge on basic materials integrated into the EU ETS. The document emphasizes that the European materials sector is in a 'precarious limbo' where investment decisions over the next 10 to 15 years will determine whether assets are closed or transitioned to climate-friendly options.

The report identifies that the production of basic materials accounted for approximately 25% of global CO2 emissions in 2014, yet progress in decarbonisation has been modest due to carbon leakage concerns and limited political support for resource efficiency. It proposes a portfolio of seven mitigation options, ranging from sharing and reuse to low-carbon production processes. To unlock these, the authors identify three primary policy gaps: incomplete incentives for recycling, a lack of markets for climate-friendly options, and missing signals for phasing out carbon-intensive production. Recommended solutions include project-based carbon contracts for difference (CfDs), Green Public Procurement (GPP), and the introduction of consumption charges on carbon-intensive materials to reinstate carbon price signals muted by free allowance allocations in the EU ETS.

The report examines how Carbon Removal and Solar Geoengineering might interact with the 17 Sustainable Development Goals. It finds that at least 13 of the 17 SDGs would be affected by these technologies, with at least 9 facing significant risks. While these interventions could mitigate some climate-driven threats to development, they introduce novel physical, socio-economic, and political risks, including land-use conflicts, water scarcity, and international political tensions. The authors emphasize substantial knowledge gaps and call for transdisciplinary, geographically diverse research and robust global governance to ensure such technologies do not hinder sustainable development.

The briefing advocates for shifting or supplementing production-based carbon pricing with consumption-based models to eliminate the need for free allowances and exemptions that mute price signals. It highlights that pricing at the point of final consumption can prevent carbon leakage in basic materials like steel and cement, incorporate emissions from imports, and provide sub-national governments with jurisdictional autonomy. The text proposes an evolutionary implementation path, starting with undifferentiated sector benchmarks and moving toward full life-cycle carbon accounting.

The report analyzes the inevitable decline of Australia's coal sector, driven by the cost-competitiveness of renewables and falling global demand for thermal coal. It presents two domestic transition scenarios: a 'moderate' one compatible with Australia's NDC and a 'faster' one aligned with a 2-degree global goal. The document highlights the risks of sudden plant closures, using the Hazelwood power station as a case study to argue for more predictable, planned transitions and a 'just transition' framework to support affected regional communities and workers.

The report analyzes two pathways for China's coal transition: a PEAK-2030 scenario aligned with its INDC and a more ambitious PEAK-2025 scenario. It argues that an early peak is possible through stringent policies in the power, industry, and building sectors, while emphasizing the need to manage socio-economic risks such as stranded assets in the electricity sector and job losses in coal-producing regions. The analysis highlights significant co-benefits for air quality and public health, as well as the potential for reducing methane emissions from coal mining.

The report argues that global thermal coal demand is likely to peak and decline by the early 2020s, driven by technological advances in renewables, air quality concerns, and macroeconomic shifts in China and India. Using the COALMOD-World model, it demonstrates that even scenarios not fully aligned with the 2°C Paris Agreement goal can severely impact major exporters like Australia, Indonesia, South Africa, and the USA. The analysis highlights that the US is the most vulnerable 'marginal' supplier, while South Africa is heavily dependent on Indian demand. The authors warn that new long-lived investments in coal mining run a high risk of becoming stranded assets.

The report analyzes Germany's coal transition, contrasting the historical phase-out of hard coal with the more abrupt decline of lignite in East Germany. It presents two future scenarios: an NDC-based pathway and a 2C-compatible pathway, the latter requiring a more rapid shutdown of coal capacities, potentially by 2025-2040. The authors argue that while technically and economically feasible, a successful transition requires a combination of strong carbon pricing, national policy instruments like emissions performance standards, and comprehensive structural support for affected mining regions to ensure social justice.

The report examines India's coal dependency and the challenges of transitioning to a low-carbon economy. Using the AIM/Enduse model, it compares the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) scenario with two 2°C pathways: a 'conventional' one relying on Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) and a 'sustainable' one shifting toward renewables, gas, and nuclear power. Key findings highlight the risk of significant stranded assets—including approximately 220 billion tonnes of unutilized coal reserves valued at USD 6.7 trillion—and the increasing vulnerability of coal power plants to water shortages, which already cause substantial generation losses. The report argues that while coal remains a mainstay until 2030, a managed phase-out is necessary to meet global climate targets, requiring synchronized actions in energy efficiency, renewable scaling, and the retirement of inefficient sub-critical plants.

The report analyzes the necessity of transitioning Poland's coal-dependent energy system to meet global climate goals. It compares a 'baseline' business-as-usual scenario with a '<2°C-consistent' scenario, the latter requiring a 67% reduction in per capita CO2 emissions by 2050. The analysis highlights that while the power sector must shift toward renewables and nuclear energy, the transition's social viability depends on managing the decline of the mining sector—particularly in the Śląskie region—through natural attrition, retraining, and conditional financial support to avoid the social exclusion seen in previous regional closures.

The report argues that South Africa's coal sector is in a state of crisis due to rising costs, energy insecurity, and the increasing competitiveness of renewable energy. It models three pathways: a least-cost NDC-based scenario, a 2°C-consistent scenario, and a sensitivity analysis regarding Sasol's Secunda plant. The findings indicate that meeting a 2°C target requires the rapid retirement of coal-fired power plants, including Medupi and Kusile, and a shift toward wind and solar PV. While the transition offers benefits like cheaper electricity and improved air quality, it poses significant risks to employment in coal-mining regions, particularly Mpumalanga, necessitating a planned 'just transition' to support workers and diversify local economies.